Commentary
With ranked-vs-ranked matchups, the stage is set by the pollsters. Still, early season schedule comparisons do provide some interesting points.
The SIU game at South Dakota will be interesting mainly because the Coyotes haven’t beat anybody to earn their lofty rank (a D-II and Drake). The Salukis have played two ranked FCS teams and split … their other loss was to Wisconsin.
Not sure what to make of the Mercer at Wofford matchup. The Bear’s undefeated record includes a close win at Chattanooga, but who knows how good the Mocs really are this year? The Terriers’ only loss was to William & Mary, which is looking more and more like a legit FCS power. All and all, I’d rate this a toss-up, with a slight edge to Wofford for home-field advantage.
On paper, the Idaho at UC Davis game leans heavily towards a Spuds win. They’ve played a much tougher schedule, although that win over Wyoming is looking less and less impressive. However – as we know all too well – most Big Sky get up for critical home games. Also, the Aggies’ opening loss to Cal is less of a downer as the Golden Bears are looking pretty good now. I think UCD has a very credible chance for a win at home.
Despite the difference in their rankings, the North Dakota State at Illinois State should be pretty competitive. In both cases, their only losses were to FBS opponents. With the Redbirds playing at home, I see a pretty good chance for an “upset.”
The Lamar at Central Arkansas matchup is another where the difference in ranking could be misleading. Both lost close games to not-very-good FBS opponents, and neither has played a formidable schedule. The main difference is that the Bears mostly ran up the scores on their cupcake opponents, while Lamar did not. The Cardinals seem to have a decent defense, so perhaps they can hang around and pull off an upset on the road.
The Richmond at Elon matchup may again be one decided by home-field advantage. Two of the Phoenix’s three losses were to an FBS and to Western Carolina, and we know how tough the Catamounts can be. Richmond lost to an FBS and to Wofford, which is now ranked. Elon’s only win was over NC Central, a relatively weak MEAC team. I rate this as a true toss-up only because Elon is at home.
The Hampton at William & Mary game is interesting because Hampton may be a “sleeper” in the mix. After a close (2 point) loss in their opening game, the Pirates have reeled off a three-game winning streak. Of course, their competition was weak, but still … The Tribe’s only loss was to an FBS opponent, so their ranking looks legit. In my view, this would be a “on any given Saturday” pick for an upset.
On their records, the Southeast Louisiana at Tarleton State matchup looks one-sided … until you notice that the Lions’ losses have been to two decent FBS teams and FCS #1 South Dakota State. Meanwhile, the Texans were winning over FCS opponents whose cumulative records are (4-10). I’d say this game will be far more competitive than it looks on paper.
