Commentary
With their W-L record, I’m not sure how Central Arkansas is still ranked in the top-25, but they are. They need a win against Sam Houston. Otherwise, I would expect them to go into a free-fall as far as the rankings go. They are, luckily for them, playing at home.
That begs the question: How good, really, is #18 Missouri State? They hung tough against FBS Oklahoma State, but their one win (43-34) was at home against Central Arkansas. Hmmm.
The MVFC game between Illinois State and Southern Illinois is interesting because both have similar records, with their single losses being on the road to FBS opponents. The high ranking for SIU may simply be because they were high in the pre-season polls. Illinois State has home-field advantage, so we’ll see if the lofty ranking is justified.
Of course, we can all agree that SDSU deserves their ranking after their win over pathetic Colorado State. However, their other win was over a weak (8-14 since 2017) D-II team. Indiana State has had two solid wins, with their only loss to a respectable Big Ten team (Northwestern). Perhaps the Sycamores’ home field advantage will be enough.
Holy Cross is another one that’s hard to figure. They looked good in the upset of UConn … but that was just poor, pathetic UConn. Then they lost to Merrimack (who?). Merrimack is new to FCS (2019), but they do look like a credible low-level program. Then the Crusaders squeaked by at Yale. Do they have another upset in them? Well, Monmouth’s two wins came against opponents that are a combined 1-4, and they got pounded by a not-very-good FBS team (Middle Tennessee State).
Ranked VMI also got pounded by its FBS opponents (Kent State), but feasted on two FCS cupcakes. Wofford won on the road at Elon, then lost to Kennesaw State. But Kenn-State is looking pretty good, so that may not be much of a down-check. I’d almost rate this one a toss-up.
Samford lost to UT-Martin but looked solid in their two wins. Of course, ETSU handily upset Vanderbilt in their first game, but that was Vanderbilt’s first game under a new coach and, well, Vandy is Vandy (in football). Since then, ETSU has won over a weak D-II team and pitiful Delaware State.
UT Martin lost to an okay FBS opponent (Western Kentucky) but was solid in their two wins. Of course, we were all thrilled by the Jacksonville State upset of Florida State. But they lost decisively to UAB and barely outlasted – at home – a sad North Alabama (0-3) team.
I almost didn’t include the Eastern Kentucky vs Austin Peay game in the list. AP has done well against FCS opponents (admittedly, only poor to mediocre competition), and their only loss was to Ole Miss. Eastern Kentucky’s only win was a squeaker at Western Carolina. Their losses were to FBS Louisville and Indiana State (2-1). Since Indiana State is looking pretty solid (and the Colonels only lost by two points) and Eastern Kentucky is at home, I figure there is still some chance for an upset.