Upset Guesses (Oct 9)

[IdaGriz01]

At least six ranked teams are going to lose next weekend … because, of course, they face ranked opponents. I also found three other good possibilities where ranked teams face very credible opponents. Should be an amazing weekend.

As usual, you are allowed two picks, and can change them later.

Official verification: Bobcats Suck!

 

[IdaGriz01]

Commentary
Delaware is ranked much higher than undefeated Rhode Island, but – except for Delaware’s upset of Rutgers – neither team has faced anybody tough. The combined records of their FCS opponents are 3-12 for Rhode Island, and 3-10 for Delaware. The Rhodies have home field advantage, so I’d call this one a pickum’.

Nicholls opened the season with two losses to decent FBS opponents, but have looked good since. SELA has also been winning (their only loss was to a mediocre FBS opponent). Home-field advantage may be enough for the Colonels.

JMU better not overlook Villanova, which has only lost to a ranked FBS opponent.

The comparative rankings for SIU at SDSU (#8 vs #2) speak for themselves. I myself would lean toward SDSU at home, but this could turn into a barn-burner.

The Jacksonville State game with Stephen F. Austin looks even closer, on paper. But Jacksonville State has lost two in a row. They’ll want to “right the ship” at home against SFA. This might end up as one of my picks. (I haven’t decided at this moment).

The UNI-NDSU game is always a toughie. Of course, Northern Iowa went toe-to-toe with a ranked Iowa State team to start out. And overall, their FCS schedule has been stronger: 5-7 combined FCS opponent record for UNI, versus 5-13 for NDSU. Will that tougher lead-up be enough to overcome NDSU’s home field advantage? We’ll see.

Although South Dakota is not ranked, North Dakota had better watch out for the ‘Yotes, especially playing in Vermillion. USD has played a somewhat tougher schedule so far: You may recall, they took Kansas down to the wire, whereas UND got clobbered by Utah State.

UT Martin is ranked and has a good record, but they can’t afford to overlook Murray State, which is undefeated against FCS opponents. Their two losses were to FBS teams, one of them ranked.

Since their upset win at Vanderbilt, ETSU has kept winning. But their opponent after Vandy was a mediocre D-II program and then three weak (5-9 combined records) FCS teams. And it took overtime to win one of those. So, basically, they really haven’t been tested. The Citadel lost to a ranked FBS team, but last week pulled off an 11-point upset of then-ranked VMI.

 

[IdaGriz01]

I’m somewhat surprised that no one has picked Murray State over UT-Martin. So, I created a table of each team’s wins and losses, juggling them to match the apparent strengths of the opponents. (Sorry about the format, but it’s the only way I’ve found to have a table where columns actually line up.

Murray			UT Martin	
L (#7 ranked FBS)	L (1-3 FBS)
L (2-3 FBS)		W (2-3 FCS)
W (1-3 FCS)		W (2-3 FCS)
W (1-5 FCS)		W (0-4 FCS)

Except for their FBS games, neither team has played a powerhouse schedule. Anyway, I included it because I thought there was a credible chance for an upset.

 

[retiredpopo]

is a 24 team over a 23 team really an upset?

 

[IdaGriz01]

is a 24 team over a 23 team really an upset?

It's a stretch, I'll admit ... especially since there is only a 3-point difference between them in the latest STATS poll. But I felt obligated to include it because it's a ranked-vs-ranked matchup.

 

[IdaGriz01]

I’m somewhat surprised that no one has picked Murray State over UT-Martin. So, I created a table of each team’s wins and losses, juggling them to match the apparent strengths of the opponents. (Sorry about the format, but it’s the only way I’ve found to have a table where columns actually line up.

Murray			UT Martin	
L (#7 ranked FBS)	L (1-3 FBS)
L (2-3 FBS)		W (2-3 FCS)
W (1-3 FCS)		W (2-3 FCS)
W (1-5 FCS)		W (0-4 FCS)

Except for their FBS games, neither team has played a powerhouse schedule. Anyway, I included it because I thought there was a credible chance for an upset.

Bump.

(Still Haven't tempted anyone into the last two choices.)

 

[IdaGriz01]

I’m somewhat surprised that no one has picked Murray State over UT-Martin. ...
Except for their FBS games, neither team has played a powerhouse schedule. Anyway, I included it because I thought there was a credible chance for an upset.

Bump.

(Still Haven't tempted anyone into the last two choices.)

Good to see some people who have faith in ... "on any given Saturday." :thumb:

 

[IdaGriz01]

Games on the poll start tomorrow morning ... need more votes. (First up is Delaware at Rhode Island.)

 

[IdaGriz01]

Games on the poll start tomorrow morning ... need more votes. (First up is Delaware at Rhode Island.)

Delaware-RI games starts at 11:00 ... still plenty of time to get your votes in.

GO GRIZ! :egriz:

 

[timjayko]

Villanova ‘upsets’ JMU 28-27

 

[dupuyer griz]

Two weeks in a row I’ve nailed it. I’m accepting offers for picks next week.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Two weeks in a row I’ve nailed it. I’m accepting offers for picks next week.

I also did well ... this week. However, it took overtime to get the Southern Illinois pick right. But I'll take it.

Crazy weekend. Of course, we knew that six ranked teams would lose, since they were playing other ranked teams.

But who could really expect so many others by unranked opponents? That included, of course, South Dakota over #13 North Dakota (my other pick). To me, the big shock was ISU taking down #7 UC-Davis. (That's going to hurt their ranking big time.) Then Youngstown State pulled off the upset of #15 Missouri State. There's going to be some major stirring of the pot in the next STATS poll.

 

[Montanabob]

So how many got two upsets correct?