Upset Guesses (Oct 6-7)

[IdaGriz01]

Two ranked-vs-ranked matchups this week, plus several games where ranked teams face pretty credible opponents. Throw in some home cookin’ in a few cases and it could get real interesting.

Two choices are allowed and you can change your votes later if you want to.

Official verification: Bobcats suck!

 

[IdaGriz01]

Commentary
Not too much to be said about the Western Carolina at Chattanooga matchup. Same records, just a difference in ranking votes. I’d likely rate this a pickum’, with a slight edge to the home team.

The question is: Is Elon at (3-2) in the CAA a stronger team than NC Central from the MEAC? Admittedly, the Eagles’ one loss was to FBS UCLA. However, they have otherwise played a very soft schedule … especially when compared to the Phoenix. In fact, it might be a stretch to call an Elon win an “upset,” other than the comparative rankings.

Illinois State’s only loss was on the road at Eastern Illinois … by 1 point on a missed PAT. I wouldn’t rate this a high probability, but the Redbirds could pull off an upset at home.

I think Southern Illinois is still riding the crest from their win over a weak FBS Northern Illinois. (The Huskies haven’t won a game since their opener against an even weaker Boston College.) Thus, I’m not sure the Salukis deserve their lofty top-10 ranking. Conversely, Youngstown State is going to be pissed at being dropped from the top-25 after their narrow (1 FG) loss on the road at Northern Iowa. At home, I think they have a good chance to pull off an “upset.”

I almost didn’t include the Duquesne at Delaware game in the poll. Still, we don’t have much of a handle on the Dukes because their two losses were to FBS opponents. Plus, Delaware has a bad habit of throwing in the odd head-scratcher loss … maybe this will be it.

The Eastern Illinois vs UT Martin games matches two 1-loss teams, and in each case those losses were to FBS opponents. Oddly enough, Eastern has a higher Strength of Schedule, even though UTM gets a boost for having played Georgia. I see a pretty good chance for the Panthers to pull off an upset at home.

Cornell has played everybody tough, their only loss coming from a late (4th Q) surge by Colgate. Harvard is good, obviously, but I see some chance for an upset here.

Can anyone in the SWAC stop Florida A&M? Maybe not … the Rattlers’ only loss was to FBS South Florida (and it wasn’t a blowout). Still, Southern is returning home on a two-game winning streak. So … a chance

 

[IdaGriz01]

Interesting that one of my picks (E. Illinois over UT Martin) is the top vote-getter at this point. I don't know exactly how Sagarin derives his SOS numbers (no outsider does). However, I know it takes into account the strength of each team they play. Thus, UTM should get some boost for their game at Georgia, with an adjustment for the point spread (not a blowout, but close to one). Eastern Illinois, on the other hand, played weak-**s Bowling Green (currently 2-3) and also lost badly ... not much to be gained in SOS value. Yet, based on the rest of their schedule, Eastern has a higher SOS than UTM (43.4 vs 41.1). Their success against a tougher schedule and the home field advantage makes an "upset" more likely.

My other choice, FWIW, is Elon over NC Central. Elon is at home and the SOS difference is beyond even what I expected ... 49.9 versus 37.6. Unless they suffer a letdown after their win against William & Mary, the Phoenix should role.

 

[IdaGriz01]

I see someone decided to take a flyer on Duquesne over Delaware. Now every choice has at least one vote.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Commentary
Not too much to be said about the Western Carolina at Chattanooga matchup. Same records, just a difference in ranking votes. I’d likely rate this a pickum’, with a slight edge to the home team.
...

Seems like more and more people down there are thinking Chattie wins this one.

 

[Paytonlives]

Chattanooga and Elon are better then the two teams they are playing

 

[IdaGriz01]

Chattanooga and Elon are better then the two teams they are playing

Yep. This is a week where you might want more than just two choices. (But you can't have them .)

 

[IdaGriz01]

The upset of Harvard didn't happen, but there are still plenty of other good choices.