Commentary
The games coming up seem particularly interesting, so I may have gotten a little carried away with the comments.
The Fordham at Holy Cross game is a battle for the lead in the Patriot League. The Crusaders are undefeated overall, and the Rams lost only to an FBS opponent. Holy Cross did beat its FBS opponent … and has been riding high in the polls ever since. Other than that, neither team has played a tough schedule (SOS ranked 212 and 246 by Sagarin). As of now, they’re barely into League play, so they have no common opponents. Tough call, but Fordham can score a lot points so I’d give them a punchers chance in this one.
Chattanooga at Furman looks like a “must win” for the home team. They’re already a game back of Chattanooga and Samford, and can’t afford another conference loss. Despite the difference in their rankings, these two team look quite close … and the Paladins have played a slightly tougher schedule. They have had two common opponents: Furman beat VMI 41-3; Chatty won by 41-13. Furman beat ETSU 27-14; Chatty won 24-16. This may come down to home field advantage.
The Incarnate Word at Texas A&M Commerce game feels rather weird, mainly because we have little “history” for Commerce (the “Lions”). The school has an enrollment of just over 12 thousand, BTW. They were a minor football power in D-II, winning that championship in 2017. Being now in transition, the Lions are not eligible for the FCS playoffs. However, it appears they can officially compete for the conference championship. They have not yet been able to schedule a full D-I schedule. Even so, they’ve done quite well against FCS competition, and played two opponents in common with Inc Word. The Lions beat SE Louisiana 31-28, while the Cardinals lost to SELA 41-35. Both won over McNeese, Commerce at 40-15, Word at 48-20. Incarnate Word is the ranked team here, but I see a good chance of an “upset.”
Rhode Island at William & Mary is a “must win” for both teams. They are tied, with one conference loss, with two other contenders … one game back of CAA leading New Hampshire. A second conference loss at this stage of the season would be hard for either of them to overcome. It’s a bit more crucial for the Tribe because two of their three remaining games are against contenders: Richmond and Villanova. The Rhodies have to go through New Hampshire, but their other two opponents are cupcakes (Maine and Albany).
Seems odd to have an OOC game at this stage of the season, but that’s what we have with Abilene Christian at North Dakota. By the numbers (Sagarin or whatever), this looks like a mismatch … and it probably is. I kept it in for two reason. First, the Hawks have three tough in-conference games after this one, ending at NDSU. All things considered, it would be no surprise if the team looked beyond this game and took the Wildcats lightly. Not a good idea. One of the AC losses was to Missouri, and they indeed lost, but were not blown out. My second reason: Here’s your chance to make a WAG and pick a most unlikely upset.
Jacksonville State at Austin Peay throws another curve at us … as it does any time J-State plays. You may recall (or not) from last week’s commentary that Jacksonville State has already added scholarships for their move up to FBS. Thus, they are not eligible for the FCS playoffs. Nor are they eligible for a bowl game. All they have to play for is the Atlantic Sun season championship, for whatever that’s worth. At the moment, they are tied for the lead with Central Arkansas. Austin Peay is one game back and would surely love to knock them off. Both have played decent schedules, with one loss to an FBS opponent. They have one common opponent: J-State beat Murray State 34-3; AP won 52-17. Overall, the Gamecocks have played a tougher schedule (Sagarin SOS 201, vs the Governors at 243). Sagarin gives AP a small home field advantage (basically a FG). I see this as a pickum’.
Delaware at Elon is another crucial game in the CAA. The Phoenix are two games back in the conference after their loss at New Hampshire. (Not incidentally, that also knocked them out of the top-25, or this would be another ranked-vs-ranked game.) Another loss would put them at four overall, and most likely leave them on the outside looking in for an at-large bid from the CAA. Delaware, on the other hand, is in that group of one-loss contenders for the title. All those contenders are looking for New Hampshire to stumble at least once … but probably can’t hope for two. UNH is off this week, then they get Richmond (on the road), Rhode Island (at home), and Maine (on the road). They could lose two of those, but I rather doubt it.
Eastern Kentucky at SE Missouri State is another late-season OOC game. No surprise in this case, since teams in those conferences have trouble putting together a decent FCS schedule. Based on their records, this looks like another mismatch. But that’s a bit deceiving because the Colonels have played a tougher schedule than the Redhawks (#166 in Sagarin vs 193 for SEMO). While it’s true that SEMO’s only loss was to an FBS opponent, one of EK’s losses was also to an FBS … but they also own an upset of a mid-level FBS team (Bowling Green). I expect a very competitive game that may come down to home-field advantage.
