Commentary
The Lafayette at Holy Cross game is interesting because the unranked team actually has a better W-L record. Each had one loss to a decent FBS opponent. (Holy Cross’s second loss was to Harvard.) Otherwise, their records are pretty comparable … both beat their one common opponent (Bucknell) pretty decisively. In fact, the Crusader’s only real advantage may be the fact that they’re at home.
Youngstown State has played a tougher schedule so far than Illinois State. That shows in the Penguin’s record (3-3), but also in the fact that they are ranked while I-State gets only a few votes. Thus, this matchup does not seem like a prime candidate for an upset. Except, that YSU has been up and down all year. Which version will show up this weekend?
South Dakota State has been rolling all year, aided by the fact that five of their first six games have been at home. They now begin a stretch where they play three of their last five games on the road, and the Salukis are no soft touch. It will be interesting to see how the ‘Jacks do this weekend … and the rest of the way. (Who do you bribe to arrange a schedule with only four games on the road?)
I think the big factor in the Northern Iowa - North Dakota matchup will be the likely desperation of the Panthers. To pick up a fourth loss at this stage of the season would be a killer, given the rest of their schedule. They will be at home, so that’s in their favor.
The Hampton-Delaware matchup is in the list for two reasons. First, the Pirates are at home, which should help. The second might seem strange: Historically, Delaware seems to cruise along for a while, but then they somehow lay an unexpected egg. This road game could well be the one.
The Western Carolina - Furman matchup features two top-10 teams, of course. (In each case, the only loss has been to an FBS opponent.) The game will also decide the leader of the SoCon, since both teams are (3-0) in conference. Not much to say, except that it should be a barn-burner.
The Rhode Island - Albany matchup features two teams that are not currently ranked, but have been recently. I picked Albany as the “favorite” because they have only one conference loss versus two for the Rams. For both teams, this is “crunch time” in the CAA. While it would take a monumental turnaround for either team to contend for the conference title, they could still be in the running for an at-large bid. Rhode Island has the better chance if they can stay at 3 losses because their remaining schedule is easier than Albany’s. Albany still has to play William & Mary.
