The “headliner” for the weekend has to be Southern Illinois hosting North Dakota. The teams have identical records against what I would consider similar schedules. Each lost to an FBS opponent and to a highly-ranked FCS team. The Salukis have one win against a D-II, but then one of the Hawks wins was at home against Portland State (close enough, this year). I see this as a pickum’ game, with perhaps a slight home-field edge for SIU.
The Youngstown game at Illinois State could be a pivotal matchup in the Missouri Valley. Although YSU is technically “not ranked,” they are actually just out of the top-25. Their losses have been to FBS teams and to top-10 FCS opponents. They will be desperate not to pick up a 4th loss. Of course, four losses isn’t quite a “kiss of death” now that most teams are playing 12 regular-season games, but it’s not good. Meanwhile, the Redbirds need to maintain their position with only one conference loss … putting them in reach of the conference leaders.
UT Rio Grande Valley has rightly remained “under the radar” despite having the same record as their next opponent, Lamar. In fact, the Vaqueros should show up as (2-1) because three of their wins were over non-D-I opponents. I give them a chance for an upset only because they have performed respectably in their three games with FCS opponents. A long shot? Sure, but the choice is here for those who would like to go for it.
The West Georgia at Tarleton State game pits another team that’s just out of the top-25 against a highly ranked opponent. I just recently said my piece about the totally creampuff schedule (other than the Army upset) the Texans have played … remember the cumulative 6-29 record for their FCS opponents. Granted, the Wolves have not played a monster schedule either. Their opponents’ cumulative record is 18-32 (way better, but not great). The Wolves’ only losses have been to ranked teams, while Tarleton has not played any. Both beat their one common opponent, Southern Utah … Tarleton won by 10 at home, the Wolves won by a FG on the road. The Texans, at home and their streak on the line, should be favored, but I wouldn’t put money on it.
On paper, the Lindenwood versus Tennessee Tech game looks like a mismatch. But, as the saying goes, “not so fast, my friend.” After an opening game FCS loss on the road, the Lions’ have won the rest of their FCS games. The other losses were to FBS opponents, and they stayed within a TD of Appalachian State. FWIW, one of the T Tech wins was over an NAIA opponent. Both have road wins over their one common opponent, Charleston Southern. I expect this game to be much more competitive than it seems at first glance … perhaps some home field mojo will make the difference.
The Stony Brook at Monmouth game is hard to figure because the Seawolves have been so inconsistent. They started out badly, with an FBS loss, and then to a red-hot and ranked Rhode Island team. They’re 3-1 since then, including a strong win over Fordham. That was their one common opponent with Monmouth, which also beat the Rams handily. Through all that, they’ve had games where they seemed to sleepwalk. Still, they’re on a win streak where they thumped opponents by 25 and then 35 points. This is an opponent the Hawks cannot afford to underrate.
I decided to include the William & Mary versus Elon matchup because it could have important ramifications for possible at-large bids from the CAA. Of course, the CAA is no longer the power it once was. But these two teams are part the “old guard,” giving them the history to hope for a bid. Both are 2-1 in conference, just one loss behind the leaders. As noted above for the Youngstown State game, a loss will certainly hurt, if not kill, any chance for a bid. So both need to keep winning, and can also hope the leaders pick up a loss. As for their comparative records, both have one FBS loss, and both lost by about the same amount to their one common opponent, Villanova.
