Commentary
On the face of it, #2 JMU should be heavily favored at #25 William & Mary. But “not so fast, my friend” … as the saying goes. The Tribe is the same team that went into Villanova and beat them handily (31-18). In that game, they got an early lead and then matched the Wildcats almost point for point (14-15) the rest of the way. Home field advantage may well be enough for them to pull off another upset.
South Dakota versus South Dakota State is a rivalry game. Not much more needs to be said. However, in my mind, USD needs this game, a lot. First, I am doubtful that they could get a bid with four losses (even from the MVFC). On top of that, they finish their season on the road at North Dakota State. Ouch.
The loser of the Northern Iowa at Missouri State game is almost certainly out of the playoff picture. Whichever team handles the pressure better is likely to win.
Chattanooga has come on strong after a relatively slow start (2-3). Since then, they’ve run off four straight wins, including one over highly ranked ETSU. However, even though Mercer is not ranked, their record against conference opponents is identical (both lost only to VMI in conference). They’ve won two straight and home field advantage might be enough for the upset. These two teams, along with ETSU, are tied for the SoCon lead so the game has huge playoff implications.
A win at SHSU is almost certainly the only chance Eastern Kentucky has to get into the playoff picture. That would tie them at 4-1 in “conference” and, of course, give them the tie-breaker if both won their final games. They will surely come out with their hair on fire.
On their records, the Incarnate Word game at Nicholls looks like a mismatch. However, you also have to consider that two of those losses for Nicholls were to FBS teams whose combined records are 13-5. The other two were to ranked FCS opponents. Without the two FBS losses, the two teams would have similar records … and Inc Word’s two losses were to weak FCS opponents (5-12).
The game between Alcorn State and Prairie View A&M is another that looks like a mismatch. However, the record for Alcorn against comparable, or the same, SWAC teams is very much in line with that of PV A&M. Alcorn just went further afield after OOC games, and their record suffered. They actually held their own with a mid-level (5-4) FBS opponent … losing by only a TD. So there’s a good chance that this will more competitive than it looks on the surface.
Stony Brook’s record is deceiving. They were awful to start the season, going 1-5, including a dreadful pounding by Oregon. But since then they’ve turned their season around and are now on a three-game winning streak. Will that be enough to upset Villanova? We’ll find out this coming weekend.
, but close.)