Commentary
The Monmouth at Kennesaw State game will be for the Big South auto-bid. However, even if K-State loses, their resulting 9-2 record would surely earn them an at-large bid. But Monmouth at 7-4 in the weak Big South would have little chance for an at-large bid. Desperation can make some odd things happen.
Mercer at ETSU will be the same, but with even more pressure on Mercer. Again, ETSU could lose and, at 9-2, get an at-large bid. If Mercer loses, however, they end at 7-3 … with only six D-I wins because their first game was against a D-II opponent. Sayonara, baby!
South Dakota at NDSU puts a lot on the line for both teams. NDSU will get a bid for sure, but two conference losses would put them in a tie with three other two-loss teams. I have no idea how the tie-breakers work in the MVFC, but USD would obviously have it over the Bison. On the other hand, if USD loses, they end up at 7-4. As I said over in the “End Game” thread, I think 7-4 teams from the MFVC (and the CAA) will be in play for an at-large bid.
Elon at home against Rhode Island could be more interesting than it looks from the comparative records. Only Elon’s first game (which they lost by 2 points) can be considered a “bad” loss. The other four came against a strong App State team, a low-ranked FCS, and two ranked in the FCS top-5. So the Rhodies better not take the Phoenix lightly. Also, Elon is at home and has absolutely nothing to lose (they ain’t going anywhere). But a loss by Rhode Island would throw them into that 7-4 conversation. A bid at 7-4, out of the CAA, might happen but they’d be much safer at 8-3.
Nicholls at SE Louisiana looks like an easy win for the ranked team … and it probably is. But it’s worth noting that all of Nicholls losses have been to pretty good FBS or ranked FCS opponents. This is another game where the ranked team better not take the opponent lightly.
Abilene Christian versus Sam Houston also looks like an easy – even a slam dunk – for the ranked team. But the Wildcats are at home and those five losses are somewhat misleading. One, of course, was to a strong FBS team. Plus, every FCS opponent they lost to has been ranked (some fairly high) for at least part of the season.
The game at Delaware against Villanova offers one of those “nothing to lose” scenarios for the home team. There’s no outcome that will get the Blue Hens a bid, but they could at least end up with a winning season record. Also, playing loosey-goosey they might spoil Villanova’s playoff ambitions. The Wildcats are surely going to get a bid, win or lose. But ending with a loss will likely kill any hope of a top seed and, in fact, throw them into that big mix of 8-3 teams. If ‘Nova plays tight and Delaware comes out with a “what the hell, let’s do it” attitude … well, that’s when upsets happen.
North Dakota at SDSU is yet another case involving a deceptive record for the unranked team and extra pressure on the ranked side. UND lost to a pretty good FBS and three ranked FCS teams (two of those in the top-5 at the time). As with the Delaware game, UND has nothing to lose except for a chance at a winning season record. On the other hand, SDSU lost its last game and therefore half of its last six games. And danger lurks for them: A loss leaves them at 7-4. However, one of those games was against a D-II opponent, so they would have only six D-I wins. Not a real winning hand if you’re thrown into the 7-4 mix hoping for a bid.
unch:
) but I kinda figured SELA might have a let-down because they figured they had a bid. So, they were one of my picks for an upset. Now they're in the (8-3) conversation ... and we'll see.
