Commentary
The Gardner-Webb at Mercer game is a bit hard to judge. Neither team played really tough FCS schedules. Two of the G-W losses were to FBS opponents, while Mercer got obliterated by Ole Miss. If it was the old SoCon, I’d give Mercer the edge … but it’s not, so I see this game as a toss-up.
Both teams are ranked in the Lafayette-Delaware game, so it remains to be seen how accurate the pollsters judged the strength of the two teams. The Leopards haven’t really played anybody (other than getting pounded by Duke), and lost at home in OT to a mediocre Colgate team. Ordinarily, I’d lean heavily toward Delaware, but the Hens have been so inconsistent I’m not very confident one way or another
North Dakota and Sacramento State are also both ranked. And both have the same overall record. I’d give UND the edge, but only because they are at home.
The record for Nicholls is a bit misleading because two of their losses were to pretty good FBS opponents, and a third was against Sacramento State. Can they go into Southern Illinois and pull off the upset? The Saluukis lost to every halfway decent team they played. So ... if the Colonels are “halfway decent,” they certainly have a chance.
Despite its impressive (9-2) record, North Carolina Central could not even win the title in the weak MEAC. They did win against a couple of CAA opponents, but not anyone the caliber of Richmond. I see this one as a classic “on any given Saturday” game. If the Spiders take the Eagles lightly, they could be in trouble … otherwise, not so much.
Okay, the Drake at NDSU game is here only because the Bulldogs won their conference auto-bid. They got slaughtered by North Dakota and SDSU in two games sandwiched around an NAIA win. After that, they fattened their record on pitiful Pioneer League opponents. Do they have any chance at NDSU? Slim to none, but I felt obligated to include the game in this poll.
On the comparative records, Austin Peay would seem to have a clear edge over Chattanooga. However, the Governors played an absolute cupcake schedule and yet had to go into overtime for two of their wins, and barely squeaked past Stephen F. Austin (3-8) by two points. Granted, the SoCon is only a shadow of what it once was, but the Mocs are definitely the more “battle tested” team.
The Duquesne - Youngstown State game is another that looks pretty hopeless for the underdog … and I can’t change that. Still, two of the Dukes’ losses were to good FBS opponents, and another was to top-10 ranked Delaware. So their record is a bit better than it looks. And the Penguins have not been particularly dominant. I’d say an upset here is not at all out of the question.
