Upset Guesses, Nov 23

[IdaGriz01]

This week we have only one ranked-vs- ranked matchup outside the Big Sky. However, for many top teams, it’s crunch time both for championship (auto-bids) or at-large bids to the playoffs.

As usual in the past, the team on the left is the underdog that might pull off the upset.

You are allowed two choices, and you can change your vote later if you want to.

Official verification: Bobcats suck!

 

[IdaGriz01]

Commentary

Not much to be said about the South Dakota – NDSU game. Both will surely get bids, so it’s more about seeds and bragging rights.

The SDSU game is peculiar in that means little for the “favorite”, transitioning Missouri State, but could be crucial for SDSU. Win or lose, the Jacks’ will get a bid … But which one?

More or less the same situation applies to Villanova against transitioning Delaware. In this case, however, the Wildcats cannot be certain of a bid out of the CAA with a (7-4) record.

By that same reasoning, William & Mary pretty much has to win against Richmond to even be in the conversation for a bid … 7-5 ain’t gonna cut it, IMO.

Because of tie-breakers, I have no clue what happens if/after Tennessee State manages an upset at home over SE Missouri State. Depending upon other games in the conference, they could end up with four teams having two conference losses.

One of those other games will be Lindenwold (remember them?) versus UT Martin, one of those two-loss teams. Looks pretty good for the Skyhawks. But lets not forget that newbie Lindenwood handed SEMO their one conference loss last weekend, and have won three of their last five games.

The Central Connecticut (home) game against Duquesne is for all the marbles in the NEC. What more need we say?

 

[GrizWin99]

Griz.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Griz.

Of course. But who needs a poll choice for that?

 

[Da Boyz Mom]

The only one I voted for was Nova / Delaware. I'm just not terribly convinced about the other ones.

 

[Grizzlies1982]

So Dakota St is on the left. They’re an underdog?

 

[kemajic]

Commentary

Not much to be said about the South Dakota – NDSU game. Both will surely get bids, so it’s more about seeds and bragging rights.

The SDSU game is peculiar in that means little for the “favorite”, transitioning Missouri State, but could be crucial for SDSU. Win or lose, the Jacks’ will get a bid … But which one?

More or less the same situation applies to Villanova against transitioning Delaware. In this case, however, the Wildcats cannot be certain of a bid out of the CAA with a (7-4) record.

By that same reasoning, William & Mary pretty much has to win against Richmond to even be in the conversation for a bid … 7-5 ain’t gonna cut it, IMO.

Because of tie-breakers, I have no clue what happens if/after Tennessee State manages an upset at home over SE Missouri State. Depending upon other games in the conference, they could end up with four teams having two conference losses.

One of those other games will be Lindenwold (remember them?) versus UT Martin, one of those two-loss teams. Looks pretty good for the Skyhawks. But lets not forget that newbie Lindenwood handed SEMO their one conference loss last weekend, and have won three of their last five games.

The Central Connecticut (home) game against Duquesne is for all the marbles in the NEC. What more need we say?

Ahhh, those marbles in the NEC.....

 

[IdaGriz01]

So Dakota St is on the left. They’re an underdog?

Peculiar situation. Since Missouri State has already expanded to compete at the FBS level – they will play a Conference-USA schedule next year – they can be considered a kind of "hybrid FBS program. I decided that was enough to make them the favorite ... as I did with Delaware.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Ahhh, those marbles in the NEC.....

Let's not overlook powerhouses in the Patriot and Pioneer conference ... who also get an auto-bid for their champions, Is it any wonder that Richmond is moving to the Patriot for football?

 

[#15 Fan]

https://www.reddit.com/r/fcs/comments/1fnl6i8/week_5_rfcs_sportsbook_lines_and_betting_game

Per this (not really official like Vegas, but pretty damn close to what I've seen throughout the year), SDSU is -15. I get the transitioning, but no waySDSU is the underdog in this game

 

[IdaGriz01]

https://www.reddit.com/r/fcs/comments/1fnl6i8/week_5_rfcs_sportsbook_lines_and_betting_game

Per this (not really official like Vegas, but pretty damn close to what I've seen throughout the year), SDSU is -15. I get the transitioning, but no way SDSU is the underdog in this game

Had not seen that ... but it does justify making them the favorite in this game.

But bottom line, if I were a $$$ betting man (I'm not) and you gave me SDSU and 18 points, I'd take it in a heartbeat.

 

[IdaGriz01]

A bit more info for the Central Connecticut (home) game against Duquesne, aside from the fact that the winner gets the auto-bid from the NEC. First, two of the Blue Devils' losses were to FBS opponents... they hung within 4 points at Massachusetts. Admittedly, UMass is a crappy FBS team, but still ... Secondly, C Conn has won their last four home games. With so much on the line, that could be the deciding factor.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Game times coming up fast ... but still enough to get your vote(s) in.