Upset Guesses, Nov 22

[IdaGriz01]

Only two ranked-vs-ranked matchups that I can use are coming up, but we also have several games that will decide a conference championship and auto-bid. We also have some cases where a ranked team is facing a credible opponent. It all adds up to a good many choices.

As usual in the past, the team on the left is the underdog that might pull off the upset. You are allowed two choices, and you can change your votes later if you want to.

Disclaimer/Reminder: For reasons I have explained before, I do not include Big Sky games in these polls.

Official verification: Bobcats suck!

 

[IdaGriz01]

Discussion
Does not seem like there’s much to be said about the South Dakota State at North Dakota game. We all think it would be a huge (and unlikely) upset … but the pollsters have spoken. And there is also: “On any given Saturday.”

The pollsters have also spoken about Southern Illinois despite their barely winning record. At this point, the Salukis can only be a “spoiler.” I do not think a 5-loss team, even from the MVFC, has much chance for an at-large bid.

Now we come to The Game … Yale vs Harvard. Despite the difference in records, this game is for all the marbles: A win by Yale would give them the tie-breaker for the Ivy auto-bid. Under normal circumstances, Harvard would be in line for an at-large bid, but it’s my understanding that conference rules would not allow that. As for the game … the history of this game is loaded with unlikely-looking upsets.

The Lafayette versus Lehigh matchup offers another that seems unlikely. However, this too will be for all the marbles: Both teams are 6-0 in conference. First question: Can the Leopards pull off the upset on their home field? I personally think they have a decent shot. Second: Would the Hawks get an at-large bid if they lose? With their record and ranking all year, I’m pretty sure they would. Otherwise, I don’t see the Patriot League getting a second bid.

We have a somewhat comparable setup in the OVC-Big South. Tennessee Tech is undefeated in conference … but UT-Martin has only one conference loss. A win by the Skyhawks would drop T-Tech to one conference loss also, and give UTM the tie-breaker for the auto-bid. And the mismatch is not as bad it looks: Two of Martin’s losses were to FBS opponents, and they’ve now won five in a row.

The Sacred Heart at Villanova game is an anomaly because the Pioneers are in a conference transition to the CAA but are currently an Independent. The result is that they have no common opponents with the Wildcats. But otherwise, their schedules are not that different. Two of Heart’s losses were to highly-ranked opponents, while ‘Nova has lost to an FBS and a highly ranked FCS. It happens that the Pioneers’ FCS opponents have a somewhat better cumulative record than those for the Wildcats: 58-51 for Sacred Heart; 45-54 for Villanova. And motivation may matter. Win or lose, the Wildcats are surely going to get a playoff bid. The Pioneers have zero chance at a bid if they lose … a win gives them at least a shot. It would also serve as “a statement” to their new conference.

Playoff possibilities add extra interest to the Austin Peay game at Tarleton State. Both lost to Abilene Christian. That pretty well sets that order since the Wildcats play weak Central Arkansas (3-8) in their final game. (Things get really interesting/crazy if Abilene Christian gets upset, but I’m not going there.) If the Governors pull off the upset, their record goes to (8-4), which should at least put them in the running for an at-large bid. That would also mean the Texans will have lost two of their final three games. That fact, and the head-to-head result could give Peay an at-large bid, possibly knocking Tarleton out. Unless the committee allows three bids for the UAC, which I consider problematic, at best.
As for the matchup itself, it is not as one-sided as the records/ranking suggests. Lost in the noise is the fact that the Governors also beat an FBS opponent: A crappy FBS team, but still… Also, one of their losses was at FBS-ranked Georgia. So, looking at the overall records, I give the Governors a very credible chance for an upset.

 

[uofmman1122]

The dream for the Griz and cats would be if somehow Lehigh, Harvard, Tarleton and Tennessee Tech all lost.

It would all but guarantee the winner and loser of the Brawl get the #2 and #3 seeds.

If you're a Griz fan hoping not to see the neighbors again in the playoffs before Frisco, you probably don't want Lehigh or Tarleton to lose. If the Griz take care of business on Saturday and those two teams win, the cats are much more likely to get the #5 seed and get sent on the road in the quarters and semis.

I would be shocked if SDSU beats UND, but they showed some fight last week, so maybe they aren't completely dead.

I voted for Yale and Sacred Heart because I just don't see the other teams losing. I don't think SHU has much of a chance against Villanova, but I also don't really know how good Nova actually is.

 

[Griz in Texas]

I don't know that any of these are going to happen, but here is what I would like to see.

I don't see Mason back and the bunnies are going to lose a fifth straight game and miss the playoffs. No upset here.

So Illinois won't even be on the bubble IMO when they fall to Illinois State, no upset there.

I am picking Yale at home over Harvard, but this will put two Ivies in the post season, maybe even 3 if Dartmouth sneaks in.

I'm going with Lafayette ending Lehigh's undefeated season is another automatic bid that takes out another MVFC bubble team. The Leopard's loss at home to Princeton is troubling, but their strong first half at Oregon State give some hope.

UT-Martin just can't win at Tennessee Tech, but I'd love to be wrong with this one.

Sacred Heart still thinks they can get in with a win over Villanova, and that won't be nearly enough to get an Independent into the field for the first time since 1984, but it hurts the CAA and I'm all for that. Go Pios. I didn't call this on the board because I was out of votes, but as I said, I would like it to happen and realistically Villanova is the real choice.

It would take more than an Austin Peay win and a little help to get the Governors into the playoffs. They don't have much hope of winning on the road against Tarleton State, but I'm still pulling for them to pull this one off. If I had to put money down, I'd bet on the Texans.

 

[Da Boyz Mom]

Maybe Mason will play?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1990927885826502956

 

[Griz in Texas]

Maybe Mason will play?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1990927885826502956

Needing to shake off the rust of 5 missed games and playing against a good team if he does play. I'm still putting all in on UND. Of course I think of the bunnies as only a partial step up over the beefalos. I stay a big fighting who's its fan this week.

 

[Griz in Texas]

Checking the SDSU notes ahead of the UND game, and nothing has changed on Mason except the team they are playing. It still says the decision on whether he plays will be made later in the week and the two deep still says Mason or Henry at QB. That doesn't look very promising, and at this point you would have to be concerned for the kid rushing back before he is ready and causing permanent damage, but either way, we'll see at game time on Saturday. I am curious who is taking most of the practice reps.

 

[GriznMN]

I voted for Yale and SDSU which guarantees they will not produce the upsets. We will see if my string of NOT successfully predicting upsets continues.

 

[IdaGriz01]

The fun of these polls is in trying to predict what favorites will get upset … or cases where we would like to see the favorite get upset. But since we’re down to crunch time, I wondered what upsets might have an impact in the playoff field. As we know, much of the field is essentially decided already. But some matchups could have big impacts … right in the Big Sky, we have the Sac State – UC-Davis game.

So I tried a little prediction game. Mostly I picked the favorite (by far the most likely result). However, where an upset might make a big difference in the bid structure, I picked that. That led to a few odd picks, but mostly not that much. I divided the results into three categories: Auto-bid (noted after the conference name), “Plus” (teams with 8 or more D-I wins), and Bubble (teams with 7 D-I wins). The results are very interesting. (FWIW: I don’t even attempt to guess the possible seeds.)

Big Sky: Montana
. Plus: MSU, Sac State, NAU
. Bubble: UC Davis
I obviously picked the Sac State upset, but it does not make that big a difference: The other way, Davis would be a Plus and Sac would be a Bubble.

CAA: Rhode Island
. Plus: Villanova, Monmouth, New Hampshire
. Bubble:: William & Mary

Independent
. Bubble: Sacred Heart.
Unlikely, but they do have seven D-I wins.

Ivy: Harvard. Pretty sure Ivy will only allow one.

MEAC: Not participating.

MVFC: North Dakota State
. Plus: South Dakota, Illinois State, North Dakota, YSU
. Bubble: South Dakota State, Southern Illinois
FWIW: This version uses an upset by SDSU.

NEC: Central Connecticut.

OVC-Big South: UTMartin
. Plus: Tennessee Tech, Gardner-Webb
This scenario assumes an upset by UT-Martin. Highly unlikely but the only way UTM makes the playoffs. Also, I do not see the OVC getting three teams into the playoffs.

Patriot: Lehigh
. Plus: Lafayette
. Bubble: Georgetown, Richmond
Can probably ignore bubble teams from the Patriot.

Pioneer: Drake
. Bubble: Presbyterian
Even with a (likely) win, the Blue Hose would have only seven D-I wins. Be interesting if they get a bid after all the early hype.

Southern: Mercer
. Bubble: Western Carolina, East Tennessee State

Southland: Stephen F. Austin
. Plus: SE Louisiana, Lamar

SWAC: Not participating.

UAC: Abilene Christian
. Plus: Tarleton, West Georgia, Austin Peay
. . Bubble: Southern Utah

Adding them up:
Auto-bids: 11
Plus: 18
Bubble: 10

Note how many teams there are with 8 or more wins (could be off a couple in terms of D-I wins… I did not check all the records). Knock out a few from conferences that won’t get extra bids, and you still get more than enough to fill the playoff field without dipping into the Bubble list.

Still, it will not shock me if some (well, one or more) seven-win teams get at -large bids.

 

[AZGrizFan]

The dream for the Griz and cats would be if somehow Lehigh, Harvard, Tarleton and Tennessee Tech all lost.

It would all but guarantee the winner and loser of the Brawl get the #2 and #3 seeds.

If you're a Griz fan hoping not to see the neighbors again in the playoffs before Frisco, you probably don't want Lehigh or Tarleton to lose. If the Griz take care of business on Saturday and those two teams win, the cats are much more likely to get the #5 seed and get sent on the road in the quarters and semis.

I would be shocked if SDSU beats UND, but they showed some fight last week, so maybe they aren't completely dead.

I voted for Yale and Sacred Heart because I just don't see the other teams losing. I don't think SHU has much of a chance against Villanova, but I also don't really know how good Nova actually is.

agreed and I tried to vote for all four but it wouldn’t let me, so i chose TTU and Lehigh both losing…not because I think they WILL, but because I just want them to.

 

[Griz in Texas]

The fun of these polls is in trying to predict what favorites will get upset … or cases where we would like to see the favorite get upset. But since we’re down to crunch time, I wondered what upsets might have an impact in the playoff field. As we know, much of the field is essentially decided already. But some matchups could have big impacts … right in the Big Sky, we have the Sac State – UC-Davis game.

So I tried a little prediction game. Mostly I picked the favorite (by far the most likely result). However, where an upset might make a big difference in the bid structure, I picked that. That led to a few odd picks, but mostly not that much. I divided the results into three categories: Auto-bid (noted after the conference name), “Plus” (teams with 8 or more D-I wins), and Bubble (teams with 7 D-I wins). The results are very interesting. (FWIW: I don’t even attempt to guess the possible seeds.)

Big Sky: Montana
. Plus: MSU, Sac State, NAU
. Bubble: UC Davis
I obviously picked the Sac State upset, but it does not make that big a difference: The other way, Davis would be a Plus and Sac would be a Bubble.

CAA: Rhode Island
. Plus: Villanova, Monmouth, New Hampshire
. Bubble:: William & Mary

Independent
. Bubble: Sacred Heart.
Unlikely, but they do have seven D-I wins.

Ivy: Harvard. Pretty sure Ivy will only allow one.

MEAC: Not participating.

MVFC: North Dakota State
. Plus: South Dakota, Illinois State, North Dakota, YSU
. Bubble: South Dakota State, Southern Illinois
FWIW: This version uses an upset by SDSU.

NEC: Central Connecticut.

OVC-Big South: UTMartin
. Plus: Tennessee Tech, Gardner-Webb
This scenario assumes an upset by UT-Martin. Highly unlikely but the only way UTM makes the playoffs. Also, I do not see the OVC getting three teams into the playoffs.

Patriot: Lehigh
. Plus: Lafayette
. Bubble: Georgetown, Richmond
Can probably ignore bubble teams from the Patriot.

Pioneer: Drake
. Bubble: Presbyterian
Even with a (likely) win, the Blue Hose would have only seven D-I wins. Be interesting if they get a bid after all the early hype.

Southern: Mercer
. Bubble: Western Carolina, East Tennessee State

Southland: Stephen F. Austin
. Plus: SE Louisiana, Lamar

SWAC: Not participating.

UAC: Abilene Christian
. Plus: Tarleton, West Georgia, Austin Peay
. . Bubble: Southern Utah

Adding them up:
Auto-bids: 11
Plus: 18
Bubble: 10

Note how many teams there are with 8 or more wins (could be off a couple in terms of D-I wins… I did not check all the records). Knock out a few from conferences that won’t get extra bids, and you still get more than enough to fill the playoff field without dipping into the Bubble list.

Still, it will not shock me if some (well, one or more) seven-win teams get at -large bids.

Aren't the teams in the MEAC and SWAC still eligible for at large bids? The winners go to the Celebration Bowl, but in this scenario I think the loser of the North Carolina Central South Carolina State game deserve to be on the bubble as much as Sacred Heart and Richmond. I don't see any of them getting into the field, but that's not the issue, you're talking only about who would be considered for the playoffs and you had the MEAC and SWAC listed as 'not participating,' and I don't believe they don't participate. They just don't have an automatic bid because they play their bowl game.

I don't see a SWAC team that deserve any consideration with Jackson State and Prairie View A&M probably in the SWAC championship to move them out, and Alabama State has three lower level wins, but I Florida A&M made the field as an at large bid in 2021, and I don't think that has changed.

Of course, the SWAC is 0 for the FCS playoffs as a conference all-time, but they should still be eligible to take the at large bids.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Aren't the teams in the MEAC and SWAC still eligible for at large bids? The winners go to the Celebration Bowl, but in this scenario I think the loser of the North Carolina Central South Carolina State game deserve to be on the bubble as much as Sacred Heart and Richmond. I don't see any of them getting into the field, but that's not the issue, you're talking only about who would be considered for the playoffs and you had the MEAC and SWAC listed as 'not participating,' and I don't believe they don't participate. They just don't have an automatic bid because they play their bowl game.

I don't see a SWAC team that deserve any consideration with Jackson State and Prairie View A&M probably in the SWAC championship to move them out, and Alabama State has three lower level wins, but I Florida A&M made the field as an at large bid in 2021, and I don't think that has changed.

Of course, the SWAC is 0 for the FCS playoffs as a conference all-time, but they should still be eligible to take the at large bids.

You're absolutely correct ... second teams from either conference could earn at-large bids. Not a good choice of terms. Actually, I could have included two or three Bubble teams that have seven D-I wins, but chose not to. Just don't see a Bubble coming out of either conference. FWIW: Some teams show eight wins, but all of them have played at least one, if not two, D-II or NAIA opponents. As for the playoffs, you're right about the SWAC, but I vaguely recall that the MEAC may have won a playoff game along the way.

 

[Griz in Texas]

You're absolutely correct ... second teams from either conference could earn at-large bids. Not a good choice of terms. Actually, I could have included two or three Bubble teams that have seven D-I wins, but chose not to. Just don't see a Bubble coming out of either conference. FWIW: Some teams show eight wins, but all of them have played at least one, if not two, D-II or NAIA opponents. As for the playoffs, you're right about the SWAC, but I vaguely recall that the MEAC may have won a playoff game along the way.

My count has the MEAC at 9-32 all-time.

The last time they had a win in the playoffs was in 1999. North Carolina went 1-1 and Florida A&M was 2-1 in that one.

A&T beat Tennessee State and then lost to Youngstown State.

FAMU won over App State, then Troy before also following to the national runner up Penguins.

Way more information than anyone wanted, but since that season the MEAC is 0-19.

 

[IdaGriz01]

My count has the MEAC at 9-32 all-time.

The last time they had a win in the playoffs was in 1999. North Carolina went 1-1 and Florida A&M was 2-1 in that one.

A&T beat Tennessee State and then lost to Youngstown State.

FAMU won over App State, then Troy before also following to the national runner up Penguins.

Way more information than anyone wanted, but since that season the MEAC is 0-19.

On another thread (not sure which), I posted numbers for the MEAC and SWAC against OOC opponents at the FCS level. Since 2015, they have won just 18% (less than 1 in 5) of those games. And they almost never played quality FCS opponents: think Campbell, Morgan State, Tennessee State, etc. Whenever they played stronger FCS teams, they got obliterated.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Quite a weekend, with three actual upsets, plus Tarleton had to go into OT to get a 1-pomt win at home. Food for thought: South Dakota State also won an OT game, giving them a final 8-4 record. Anyone want to bet against them getting an at-large bid?