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Upset Guesses (Nov 22)

Where are the upsets?

  • #20 YSU (7-4) at #3 NDSU (10-1)

    Votes: 10 29.4%
  • #22 W&M (7-4) vs #21 Richmond (7-4)

    Votes: 11 32.4%
  • Yale (8-1) at #15 Harvard (9-0)

    Votes: 7 20.6%
  • Liberty (7-4) at #2 Coastal C (11-0)

    Votes: 15 44.1%
  • Cent Arkansas (6-5) at #23 SHSU (7-4)

    Votes: 12 35.3%
  • Lamar (7-4) at #19 McNeese (6-4)

    Votes: 7 20.6%
  • NC Central (6-5) vs #24 NC A&T (9-2)

    Votes: 1 2.9%

  • Total voters
    34

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
Only two (not counting the Big Sky UM-MSU) games where ranked teams face each other. That made it harder to find good possibilities -- but we did all right.

Youngstown State is, of course, in a definite “win or you’re done” with their game at NDSU. A loss means they would have five losses and too many other MVFC teams would be ahead of them. Of course, a win at NDSU would mess up everything.

The W&M-Richmond game is equally interesting because the loser will also have five losses. Again, too many probable four-loss teams for them to have much of a chance for a bid.

Yale-Harvard his its “historic” baggage, so I included it even though it’s irrelevant in the larger scheme of FCS football.

The Liberty at Coastal game is damned important because every bubble team will be rooting for Liberty to lose. Otherwise, Liberty ends up with the tie-breaker between the one-loss Big South teams, would earn the auto-bid, and Coastal would probably still get an at-large bid.

SE Louisiana (6-1, 8-3) has a cupcake game against Nicholls State (0-11). So Sam Houston needs to win against Central Arkie to have a shot at an at-large bid. Similarly, McNeese must win to even be in the conversation.

Right now, NC A&T has a lock on the auto-bid from the MEAC. A stumble, and it all goes back to tie-breakers among teams with two conference losses.

(Glad I no longer do the Big Sky for these polls. That could turn into an absolute mess, what with the unbalanced schedule, etc.)

As usual: Underdog on left, two choices allowed.
 
William & Mary and Liberty get the upsets this week. Reasoning...

Richmond just didn't look very good this past week against James Madison.
Liberty has a pretty good team that must win while Coastal is a seed either way.
 
qwerty15ster said:
Ida, I can't do it this week. Only one game on my mind.............
I totally understand.

See, my reasoning is ... the Griz will beat the kitties. Period. If I assume a loss, then the season is already over ... 'cause what's the point? Although the Griz will have had "good" ( :( :?: ) losses -- against strong teams -- I do not see them getting a bid with five losses. So I assume a win, which makes the other games still interesting.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
qwerty15ster said:
Ida, I can't do it this week. Only one game on my mind.............
I totally understand.

See, my reasoning is ... the Griz will beat the kitties. Period. If I assume a loss, then the season is already over ... 'cause what's the point? Although the Griz will have had "good" ( :( :?: ) losses -- against strong teams -- I do not see them getting a bid with five losses. So I assume a win, which makes the other games still interesting.

All fair points, but in my mind this game is bigger than just playoff implications. I would likely feel the same way if the Griz were already guaranteed a playoff or guaranteed out of the playoffs. This whole week is special and exciting leading to what is always a great game. This year just has the super added bonus of the Griz's playoff hopes on the line.
 
Hate to say it, but I sure hope the current majority voters are wrong. If Liberty wins, they get the auto-bid. Most predictors say Coastal will still get a bid -- so one marginal team is toast. That could bump a team from the Big sky that might have otherwise landed a bid.
 
< Bump. >

Well, if the upsets currently leading in votes actually happen -- W&M, Liberty, and Central Arkansas -- all kinds of prognostications go out the window.
 
I see (just) one brave soul has picked NC Central to upset NC A&T. Obviously wants to be able to gloat if it happens -- will ignore if not. :D
 
Last chance to get your votes in.

Despite our feelings about Griz-kitty, these games do matter. When the Griz win, it's possible -- if enough higher-ranked teams lose -- that UM could squeeze into a seed. Highly unlikely, I know, but not out of the question. Also, where the Griz do get placed could be improved by more of the favorites getting knocked off. But remember, the one we don't want (sorry guys) is for Liberty to upset Coastal. Then they'd get the auto-bid and Coastal would almost certainly take an at-large bid from some other "deserving" program (possibly from the Big Sky).
 
Well, three of the seven used in the poll did turn out to be upsets. And every one of them had consequences, two of them significant consequences.

First: The Liberty upset of Coastal got the Flames into the playoffs. That’s the only way they were getting in, so it doesn’t get much more significant than that.

Congrats! to the one person who picked NC Central over NC A&T. As I said it would, that threw the MEAC into a five-way tie-breaker. Who woulda thunk that Morgan State (7-5 overall) would emerge from that mess as the auto-bid? Of course, now they have to play at Richmond, which is on a bit of a roll. (Good luck with that.)

Lamar knocking off McNeese State insured that McNeese did not get an at-large bid. But I don’t see that as huge deal, because I thought McNeese getting in was marginal, at best, anyway.
 
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