Upset Guesses (Nov 21)

[IdaGriz01]

Only one ranked vs ranked team matchup outside the two in the Big Sky. However, there are a number of key games still to be played next weekend.

The Southern Illinois game at UNI may look like a mis-match, but keep this in mind: SIU lost big only to Illinois State. They lost the other six games by a total of 17 points (that’s less than a FG per game lost). Maybe they’re due?

Another item of note is the number of 6-4 and 7-3 teams playing. Every one of those is a win or a loss from joining that growing list of 7-4 teams hoping against hope to get an at-large bid.

As usual, underdog on the left, two choices allowed.

 

[Grizzlies1982]

I picked only the Central Ark over Sam Houston. I really don't understand why Sam has gotten so much love in the polls this year. It is rather like how E. Washington was top five after sliding by win a series of close calls. Early in the season Sam had an exciting shoot out loss versus Texas Tech but otherwise I don't see much there.

I also expect either Richmond or Villanova manage to pull off an upset over their conference leaders. I haven't watched any CAA games so have no idea who is better than whom but at least one knock off either W&M or JMU to cinch a playoff bid.

 

[IdaGriz01]

I picked only the Central Ark over Sam Houston. I really don't understand why Sam has gotten so much love in the polls this year. It is rather like how E. Washington was top five after sliding by win a series of close calls. Early in the season Sam had an exciting shoot out loss versus Texas Tech but otherwise I don't see much there.

I also expect either Richmond or Villanova manage to pull off an upset over their conference leaders. I haven't watched any CAA games so have no idea who is better than whom but at least one knock off either W&M or JMU to cinch a playoff bid.

I'm with you on the C-Ark upset. Have seen McNeese play and they look legit. Have also seen SHSU, and have not been that impressed. They can, however, get hot and look really good -- but they look, at best, mediocre most of the time.

 

[IdaGriz01]

I picked only the Central Ark over Sam Houston. I really don't understand why Sam has gotten so much love in the polls this year. It is rather like how E. Washington was top five after sliding by win a series of close calls. Early in the season Sam had an exciting shoot out loss versus Texas Tech but otherwise I don't see much there.

I also expect either Richmond or Villanova manage to pull off an upset over their conference leaders. I haven't watched any CAA games so have no idea who is better than whom but at least one knock off either W&M or JMU to cinch a playoff bid.

I'm with you on the C-Ark upset. Have seen McNeese play and they look legit. Have also seen SHSU, and have not been that impressed. They can, however, get hot and look really good -- but they look, at best, mediocre most of the time.

Lots of votes right now for this one. The extra interest for this one is ... What happens with the loser? The winner will be 8-3 and will surely get an at-large bid (McNeese already has the auto-bid). But will the loser, then sitting at 7-4, also get a bid? Put another way: Is the Southland likely to get three bids this year?

 

[IdaGriz01]

Well ... my bad!

While I thought Liberty had an outside chance for an upset, I did not think that was enough to include the game among my upset guesses. Sigh.

Anyway ... Congrats to Liberty!

 

[Paytonlives]

I picked only the Central Ark over Sam Houston. I really don't understand why Sam has gotten so much love in the polls this year. It is rather like how E. Washington was top five after sliding by win a series of close calls. Early in the season Sam had an exciting shoot out loss versus Texas Tech but otherwise I don't see much there.

I also expect either Richmond or Villanova manage to pull off an upset over their conference leaders. I haven't watched any CAA games so have no idea who is better than whom but at least one knock off either W&M or JMU to cinch a playoff bid.

I'm with you on the C-Ark upset. Have seen McNeese play and they look legit. Have also seen SHSU, and have not been that impressed. They can, however, get hot and look really good -- but they look, at best, mediocre most of the time.

Lots of votes right now for this one. The extra interest for this one is ... What happens with the loser? The winner will be 8-3 and will surely get an at-large bid (McNeese already has the auto-bid). But will the loser, then sitting at 7-4, also get a bid? Put another way: Is the Southland likely to get three bids this year?

The only way they get three is if Cent Ark wins... they wont be in at 7-4

 

[IdaGriz01]

I picked only the Central Ark over Sam Houston. I really don't understand why Sam has gotten so much love in the polls this year. It is rather like how E. Washington was top five after sliding by win a series of close calls. Early in the season Sam had an exciting shoot out loss versus Texas Tech but otherwise I don't see much there.

I also expect either Richmond or Villanova manage to pull off an upset over their conference leaders. I haven't watched any CAA games so have no idea who is better than whom but at least one knock off either W&M or JMU to cinch a playoff bid.

I'm with you on the C-Ark upset. Have seen McNeese play and they look legit. Have also seen SHSU, and have not been that impressed. They can, however, get hot and look really good -- but they look, at best, mediocre most of the time.

Lots of votes right now for this one. The extra interest for this one is ... What happens with the loser? The winner will be 8-3 and will surely get an at-large bid (McNeese already has the auto-bid). But will the loser, then sitting at 7-4, also get a bid? Put another way: Is the Southland likely to get three bids this year?

The only way they get three is if Cent Ark wins... they wont be in at 7-4.

So you're saying Sam Houston has had enough love through the season that they get in even if they lose and end up at 7-4. Not sure I agree with that, although you could be right.

 

[GrizLA]

Liberty upset Coastal tonight. Last quarter was a good one...

 

[IdaGriz01]

Liberty upset Coastal tonight. Last quarter was a good one...

Yep ... watched that (see above) ... and that last quarter was fun.

The best part, from a future (but this-year) prospect, is an indication that CC is a very good team, but not -- perhaps -- as dominant at the FCS level as they have been in the past.

Of course, that does not matter in the even longer term since they are out of FCS next year. Their fan boards think they have commits from a bunch of FBS talent, so they could be competitive at that level much sooner than a lot of people might expect.

 

[Grizzlies1982]

Liberty upset Coastal tonight. Last quarter was a good one...

This is good for Montana's strength of schedule (if the committee needs to dip into that).

 

[PolsonGrizFan]

Liberty upset Coastal tonight. Last quarter was a good one...

Great game. How about a little irony, since Ron Ash is expected to try some trickery in the Brawl.
Coastal's trick play blew up in their face. Their swinging gate was a complete fail.

Trick play link:
https://vine.co/v/iuptB1lUAHZ/

 

[IdaGriz01]

Well, we're halfway there with our top vote-getters:

The Richmond - W&M game is being broadcast (DirecTV 642). But if the Sam Houston - Central Arkansas game is going to be on, they have not posted it yet.