Commentary
North Dakota at North Dakota State is much more than a spoiler chance for UND. Of course, NDSU is surely in already, whether they get a seed or not. North Dakota, on the other hand, needs a win to get to (8-3) … which would guarantee them a bid. A loss pushes them into the (7-4) bubble pool … and we know all too well how that notion feels.
In one sense, the William & Mary at Richmond game is meaningless: both teams will get playoff bids. But both are (6-1) in conference, along with New Hampshire. Whoever wins here will, from what I’m reading, share the title with New Hampshire … if, as expected, UNH takes care of Maine (2-8) this weekend. I have no idea how the conference would allocated the auto-bid between a (7-1) Richmond/W&M and a (7-1) New Hampshire. (Nor does that really matter … if UNH goes to (8-3) overall, they will get a bid.)
The Delaware at Villanova game is a whole different kettle of fish (lobster?). Even if ‘Nova wins, at (6-5) they have almost no hope of getting an at-large bid out of the CAA. However, they would end with a winning season record and have the satisfaction of putting a crimp in Delaware’s chances for an at-large bid. A Blue Hen loss puts them in the (7-4) bubble.
Mercer at Samford is most crucial to the Bears, but Samford will not want to close the season with a home loss. The Bulldogs, with the tie-breaker over Furman, have already clinched the SoCon auto-bid and at least a tie for the championship. But they are only favored (Sagarin) by a field goal over Mercer. If they lost and Furman won (likely … against 3-7 Wofford), that would simply mean the Bulldogs would have to share the championship. A Mercer win would put the Bears at (8-3) and in the conversation for an at-large bid. A loss throws them into the (7-4) bubble … with very little chance for an at-large bid out of the SoCon.
That, of course, segues into the Chattanooga at Western Carolina game. The Catamounts have little to play for besides a home win that would give them a winning season record. And perhaps that will be enough, although the Mocs are favored by over a touchdown (Sagarin). But Chattie does badly need a win. They won against Mercer, but lost to Samford and Furman. A win puts them in the (8-3) conversation for a bid. A loss throws them into the (7-4) bubble … with, again, very little chance for a bid out of the SoCon.
Incarnate Word at Northwestern State is a bit weird, to say the least. Despite its strong record and high ranking, Incarnate Word is only tied for the Southland Conference lead. Their one loss was to Southeastern Louisiana, which also has a (4-1) conference record. A loss to the Demons would deny Inc Word the conference championship and the auto-bid. Still, at (9-2) and ranked all year, the Cardinals would almost certainly get an at-large bid. However, they would probably be out of the conversation for a seed. FWIW: We have seen Inc Word play several times now, and they’ve got some good players. Honestly, they should have no trouble with the Demons (whom we have also seen play). But they have shown a tendency to “play down” to an opponent, so a win is not at all a given.
Kennesaw State at Eastern Kentucky is important because of how it could impact the bubble team list. The Owls aren’t going anywhere … except into their transition to Conference USA. Yet Kennesaw is a tough competitor, and will want to finish with a winning record. On the other hand, Eastern Kentucky desperately needs a win just to get into the (7-4) bubble conversation. Their early upset of FBS Bowling Green (now 5-5) would certainly give them a talking point.
Stephen F. Austin at Abilene Christian is another strange situation, one that is not accurately reflected by the data posted on ESPN. According to the WAC web site, the teams are a game apart in the standings, not two as shown by ESPN. Thus, ACU is 3-0 in conference, while SFA is 2-1. (Apparently, while Sam Houston State is still officially part of the WAC, the conference does not include their games in figuring the standings.) So this game will be for the WAC championship, and nomination for the ASUN-WAC auto-bid.
