Commentary
The Villanova at Delaware game matches two of the four teams tied for the lead in the CAA (the others are Albany and Richmond). It gets complicated from there: The loser will fall to 8-3, but will have a strong case for an at-large bid. The winner will surely (at 9-2) get a bid. They will, however, fall into a tie-breaker for the auto-bid with at least one other contender, and possibly two. Albany (8-3) is at home and it seems highly likely that they will have no trouble with lowly Monmouth (4-6). The other possible tie participant depends upon the result of the Richmond at William & Mary game (below). Incredibly, neither Villanova nor Delaware played Richmond or W&M. At this point, I throw up my hands … let the conference gurus figure out the multi-tier tie-breakers.
The Richmond at William & Mary game poses radically different possible paths, depending upon who wins. If Richmond wins, they move into the auto-bid tie-breaker situation noted above. The Spiders did not play any of the other contenders … back we go to the gurus. And if the tie-breaker goes against Richmond, it remains to be seen if they (at 8-3) would get an at-large bid along with the winner of the Delaware-Villanova game (probably yes). On the other hand, a win by William & Mary takes Richmond out of the auto-bid picture and leaves them both on the (7-4) bubble. In that instance, let’s not forget Rhode Island, which is favored to win at Towson and also end up at (7-4).
You got all that? 
As has been pointed out here and there, it’s crunch time for North Dakota State. Or is it? A loss would put them on that (7-4) bubble. Anyone want to bet that the committee wouldn’t give them a bid? (No problem if NDSU wins and goes to 8-3.) It also seems like crunch time for Northern Iowa. Even a win “only” puts them on the (7-4) bubble. A loss takes them to (6-5) and it’s over. Or is it? Anyone want to bet against a bid anyway?
The Illinois State at North Dakota game seems like a mismatch since UND is mid-ranked while I-State hasn’t received any votes at all for about a month. Yet they actually have the same overall record. The loser (admittedly most likely to be the Redbirds) will have five losses and will surely be gone. On the other hand, the winner will still only be (7-4), which only guarantees they’ll be on the bubble.
The Central Arkansas at Austin Peay game is basically for all the marbles in this goofy United Athletic Conference. The Governors are undefeated in conference, but Central Arkansas has only one conference loss. If the Bears win, they tie for the lead and get the tie-breaker for the auto-bid. And that’s it: I do not see the UAC getting more than one bid.
The same situation holds for the Harvard-Yale game. Harvard is only a game ahead of Yale in the conference, so if Yale wins, they’d be tied at 6-2, but Yale would have the tie-breaker. Of course, they don’t “do” the playoff, so that may not matter. Does the Ivy declare a champion based on tie-breakers, or do they crown co-champions? FWIW: Dartmouth (also 4-2 in conference) lost to both Harvard and Yale.
The UT Martin game at Samford is important in an odd way, even though the Skyhawks have gone out of conference. In fact, they have already completed their “conference” schedule (at 5-1). The relevant conference game is Gardner-Webb (6-4) hosting Charleston Southern (4-6). Gardner-Webb is favored to win, which would bring their conference record to (5-1) also … but they have the tie-breaker over the Skyhawks and would win the Big South-OVC auto-bid. Could this hybrid “conference” get a second bid? If UT Martin wins, they probably would get an at-large with a (9-2) record. But I’m not at all sure they would if they lost and ended up (8-3).
Incarnate Word is favored to win at Houston Christian, and I’d say they
really need to. They are already a game behind Nicholls for the Southland Conference auto-bid.. An Inc Word loss obviously scrubs that. Even a win won’t help for that, even if Nicholls loses, since the Colonels own the tie-breaker over them. (Nicholls is heavily favored to win at SE Louisiana, 3-7). Beyond that, a Cardinal loss would put them at 7-3, with one of those wins against a D-II opponent. That would be a killer. In fact, I’m not sure they’d get an at-large bid if they win and end at 8-2 … at best, I think they be on the bubble.
All kinds of interesting stuff!
