Upset Guesses (Nov 17)

[IdaGriz01]

I hesitated about even doing a poll this week, but “Why mess with tradition?” And it turns out, there are some very interesting possibilities shaping up.

To start, we have three ranked-vs-ranked games that offer some intrigue. At least in two of those three the “underdog” is playing at home, which somewhat improves the chance of an upset. The Lamar-McNeese game features two (6-4) teams so there’s an underdog only because of the polls.

East Tennessee State (8-2) looks impressive on paper, and they are at home. But one of those wins was against a weak D-II opponent. Their six conference wins came by a total of 16 points (one of those in triple-overtime), meaning they won by less that FG in each case. Can easily see Samford being “up” trying to finish with a winning season.

Then we have the big rivalry game in South Dakota. You generally throw out the records in those games.

After that I had to go with a couple games that are admittedly a bit of a stretch. But Penn is not totally inept at (6-3), so at least there’s a chance. I don’t really see Colgate upsetting Army, but they are undefeated so perhaps Army, with a bowl game guaranteed, will overlook them.

Three choices allowed, can be changed later.

 

[CatGrad-UMGradStu]

Had to take Jacksonville State out of loyalty (and a certain lady got her bachelors at Kennesaw) and took Samford over ETSU just because I appreciate the school and the coaches there.

 

[Yukon]

#8 colgate/army....who's the upset?

 

[IdaGriz01]

#8 colgate/army....who's the upset?

Cute.

And actually, I think Army has been ranked among FBS teams this year (although not recently).

 

[Yukon]

#8 colgate/army....who's the upset?

Cute.

And actually, I think Army has been ranked among FBS teams this year (although not recently).

I was actually being serious. A #8 FCS against an un-ranked FBS could be a good game.

 

[IdaGriz01]

#8 colgate/army....who's the upset?

Cute.

And actually, I think Army has been ranked among FBS teams this year (although not recently).

I was actually being serious. A #8 FCS against an un-ranked FBS could be a good game.

I did think an upset would be a stretch, but you may be onto something. Neither team has played a powerhouse schedule (at their respective levels): Besides its conference games, Colgate has played the likes of Cornell and William & Mary. Army lost to Duke (pretty good this year) and Oklahoma. They did beat up on pitiful San Jose State, 52-3, and Liberty, 38-14.

But, oddly enough, they do have a common opponent. Army’s last game was against Lafayette and they won handily, 31-13. Lafayette is, of course, a member of the Patriot Conference. When Colgate played Lafayette earlier in the year, they clobbered the Leopards, 45-0.

Hmmm …

 

[IdaGriz01]

Interesting mix of votes. I guess I'm not surprised that no one thinks the Quakers have a hope in Hell at Princeton. But what happened to: "On any given Saturday ..." ?

 

[IdaGriz01]

Can't quite "get my head around" the mess in the CAA, but the simplest if Maine just wins (an upset according to their poll ranks).

The other mess is in the SoCon ... IF Samford pulls off an upset at East Tennessee. An ETSU loss opens up all kinds of other ramification, most of which are bad for a (7-4) Griz team.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Over on the "TV guide" thread CatzWillRise posted: "Colgate has given up 3.2 PPG this year, in 9 games. They've given up 29 total points. I can't even wrap my head around those stats."

In case you're wondering, that includes five shutouts. Now the Raiders do not play a powerhouse schedule -- Georgetown has a football team in name only, and the rest of the Patriot is almost as pathetic. But still, that kind of defensive dominance is pretty impressive.

Can they hold Army to a FG? Doubt it very much. But ... anyone want to change a vote?

 

[IdaGriz01]

(Bump)

Still time for more votes.

GO GRIZ! :egriz:

 

[IdaGriz01]

Sad, about the Griz but not a massive surprise to us ('Nuf said).

But we just watched one of the most amazing endings to a football game we've seen in a long time. (For some of us, there is, after all, more to FCS football than Griz-Cat.)

This was not an upset I considered a high probability, so it was not on the poll. Stony Brook went into Albany as a distinct favorite, but Albany kept it close and scored to take the lead with less than 2 min left. There was fumble by SB. Albany missed a FG -- but did "burn" all of Stony's timeouts. Then SB hit a wild "Hail Mary" to take the lead back (receiver clearly pushed off, but it was not called). At this point there's like 15 sec left ... but Stony was called for excessive celebration (and who could blame them?). So Albany get good field position after the backed-up kick, runs one good play ... and kicks a 48 yard FG for the upset.