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Upset Guesses (Nov 14)

Where are the upsets?

  • Kennesaw St (6-3) at #4 Cstl Car (8-1)

    Votes: 2 6.3%

  • Liberty (5-4) at #11 Charleston So (8-1)

    Votes: 12 37.5%

  • Towson (6-3) at #7 W&M (7-2)

    Votes: 8 25.0%

  • Villanova (5-4) vs #9 Richmond (7-2)

    Votes: 5 15.6%

  • #20 YSU (5-4) vs #2 NDSU (7-2)

    Votes: 6 18.8%

  • E Illinois (5-4) at TN-Martin (5-3)

    Votes: 4 12.5%

  • Lehigh (5-4) at Colgate (5-4)

    Votes: 5 15.6%

  • #21 Citadel (7-2) at #8 Chattanooga (7-2)

    Votes: 9 28.1%

  • Penn (5-3) at #12 Harvard (8-0)

    Votes: 4 12.5%
  • Total voters
    32
IdaGriz01

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
Only four games this week that match up two ranked teams, and two of those are in the Big Sky. Luckily, a few ranked teams are playing what appear to be reasonably competitive opponents. And beyond that, there are some crucially important conference games I decided were worth including. In fact, several of the conference races are shaping up in interesting ways for this coming weekend. I’ll put my notions in some follow-up posts -- broken out by groups of conferences -- so people can comment on what interests them without having to copy the whole thing. (No comments on the Big Sky, of course.)

(Underdog on left, two selections allowed.)
 
Comments: Big South, Colonial, Ivy [Not], and MEAC

Big South
Charleston Southern (8-1), ranked #11, has already won the auto-bid from the Big South, but their matchup with Liberty offers some fascinating possibilities. Liberty (5-4) is in much the same boat as the Griz, except they could make an even stronger case, if they won out. Even though CS is at home, they have no particular reason to be as motivated as the Flames. Assuming that upset, Liberty would then be 6-4. Liberty’s final game is at home against #4 Coastal Carolina. Suppose they pulled off that upset to go to 7-4. Who’d want to bet against them getting an at-large bid with that kind of closing rush? Coastal Carolina should have no trouble with Kennesaw State, BTW. K-State’s record is misleading ... four of their six wins have been against two NAIA teams, a D-II, and East Tennessee State (which has yet to win an FCS game since they restarted football).

CAA
The current leaders in the CAA both face what might be considered “trap” games. Towson is on a four-game winning streak after starting 2-3, and two of those four wins have been on the road. Villanova has been a Jekyll and Hyde team this year as they try to identify the right QB (sound familiar?). At home, they could well pull off the upset.
In the unlikely event that both favorites lose, there would most likely be a three-way tie at 5-2 in conference -- JMU should be able to win at Delaware (3-6). Of course, on paper, both favorites should win. In that case, the November 21 game between W&M and Richmond would be for the conference championship and the auto-bid.

Ivy -- no comments. Not involved in playoffs, so who cares.

MEAC
Unlikely for an at-large bid, although Bethune-Cookman might have an outside shot, with North Carolina A&T going to the HBCU “Celebration Bowl” against a SWAC representative.
 
Comments: MVFC, NEC, and OVC

Missouri Valley

A lot on the line in the NDSU-YSU game. NDSU has already done more than enough to get a bid. But I’m not sure a three-loss NDSU team gets a high seed. (Their last game is against feeble Missouri State, so we’ll take that win as a given.) So they’ll want to win to keep that probability intact. On the other hand, the game is “win or stay home” for Youngstown State.

Northeast -- auto-bid only, easy matchups for contenders. Most likely will come down to the final game between Duquesne and St. Francis (PA).

Ohio Valley
Barring an incredible crash, Jacksonville State (8-1) has wrapped up the Ohio Valley championship and the conference auto-bid. Their home game against SE Missouri State (4-5) is so unlikely to be an upset that I did not bother to include it in the upsets poll. They also have the tie-breaker against the only two credible contenders left. So they would have to lose both of their last two games, for anything to change. Still, stranger things have happened already this year, so the coming matchup between Tennessee-Martin (6-3) and Eastern Illinois (5-4) could be very important. Both are 5-1 in conference. Whoever wins would still have only one conference loss and would at least be in the running if something weird happened with J’ville state.
 
Comments: Patriot, Pioneer, and Southern

Patriot
It is unlikely that #16 Fordham (8-2) will have any trouble at Georgetown (4-5). However, although they have by far the best overall record in the Patriot League, they are actually second in the conference. One of their two losses was to Colgate (5-4), which is undefeated in conference. That makes the upcoming Colgate-Lehigh game critically important. If Colgate wins, they only have to beat a not-very-good Bucknell (4-5) team to win the conference and the auto-bid. But if Lehigh (5-4) wins, then Lehigh, Colgate, and Fordham would all have one conference loss. Lehigh plays Lafayette (1-9), so that win is pretty much a given. As noted, Colgate gets Bucknell. With those (likely) wins, the three teams would all have 5-1 conference records. Who wins that tie-breaker for the auto-bid, I have no clue. However all this plays out, if the auto-bid goes to anyone but Fordham, that could be bad news for a lot of “bubble” teams.

Pioneer -- auto-bid only. Dayton currently leading and will most likely win out.

Southern
The Citadel-Chattanooga game is one of the most crucial matchups for this coming weekend. After the upset at Mercer, Chattie is 5-1 in the SoCon, while The Citadel is 6-0 (both are 7-2 overall). A win by Citadel gives them the auto-bid (obviously). But if the Mocs win, then that gives them the tie-breaker and the auto-bid. Either way, the loser will be 7-3 ... and both face a solid FBS team in their final game (Chattie at Florida State, Citadel at South Carolina). So, either way again, the loser of this next game will end up at 7-4, and is most likely out of the playoff picture. (Recall that Samford ended last year at 7-4 after losing its last game at Auburn ... and did not get an at-large bid from the SoCon.)
 
Comments: Southland and SWAC

Southland
McNeese State has already clinched the auto-bid (having won earlier over Central Arkansas and Sam Houston State). In the unlikely event that they suffer an upset at Lamar (4-5) they might only share the conference title. But for that to happen, Central Arkansas would have to win out, which would include a win against SHSU in their final game. The only drama is whether or not the Southland gets any at-large bids. That probably won’t be decided until that final game.

SWAC
Although Grambling State is ranked, the SWAC’s participation in the “Celebration Bowl” pretty much eliminates any possibility of an FCS playoff at-large bid.
 
Not too many votes here yet. I see most people would like to see Liberty pull off the upset, but I'm surprised at some of the matchups that still have zero votes.
 
biga75 said:
#2 NDSU is the underdog against #20 Youngstown???
Click to expand...
Aaagrh!!! :oops:

Not likely. Thanks for catching that ... and it's fixed. (Whew, I was afraid it would wipe all the votes to this point, but it looks like they carried over after the edit.)
 
Plus there is only MAYBE 1 more year that they will ever be an underdog again so take em as a dog while I can lol


IdaGriz01 said:
kevraid said:
Lets go with Kennesaw st as a 21 point underdog to shock the world
Click to expand...
And think of the bragging rights! :thumb:
Click to expand...
 
IdaGriz01 said:
biga75 said:
#2 NDSU is the underdog against #20 Youngstown???
Click to expand...
Aaagrh!!! :oops:

Not likely. Thanks for catching that ... and it's fixed. (Whew, I was afraid it would wipe all the votes to this point, but it looks like they carried over after the edit.)
Click to expand...

Richmond & Villanova too...
 
biga75 said:
IdaGriz01 said:
biga75 said:
#2 NDSU is the underdog against #20 Youngstown???
Click to expand...
Aaagrh!!! :oops:

Not likely. Thanks for catching that ... and it's fixed. (Whew, I was afraid it would wipe all the votes to this point, but it looks like they carried over after the edit.)
Click to expand...
Richmond & Villanova too...
Click to expand...
Not my finest hour, this week. Thanks ... fixed.

(If this messed anybody up, you are allowed to changed your vote(s).)
 
As I said in my comments, the Citadel-Chattie (now tied for the most votes) could be for "all the marbles" in the SoCon. Have not yet found it being broadcast, but hoping it will turn up.

Meanwhile ... GO GRIZ! :egriz:
 
FWIW, the big upset so far was Penn over Harvard, 35-25. Ended Harvard's 22-game winning streak and sets up a possible tri-championship in the Ivy.
 
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