Commentary
Can South Dakota State run the table? That absolutely looks possible, but they certainly face a challenge next weekend. Not only will Youngstown State be at home, but they definitely do not want another loss. While the Penguins should be able to take care of their final opponent (Murray State, 2-7), four losses would put them on the bubble for an at-large bid. They would have a pretty good case (one of their losses was to Ohio State), but you don’t want to be there if you can help it.
North Dakota is in the same boat as Youngstown State … not wanting to drop into the four-loss bubble. Their final game is not necessarily a gimme, even though they will be at home (Illinois State, 5-4). On the flip side, South Dakota wants to avoid another conference loss to maintain a shot at a seed.
And the beat on goes with North Dakota State, trying avoid that fourth loss. In this case, both teams are in the same boat … whoever loses will fall into that four-loss bubble. This is shaping up like another year when there will be a lot of teams in that (7-4) bubble. You simply do not want to be there. To add to the Bison’s difficulties, they go on the road the following week to Northern Iowa. Another loss there would surely take NDSU out of the playoff picture … something that hasn’t happened in umpteen years.
Penn at Harvard is, of course, mostly of academic interest since the Ivies opt out of “mainstream” FCS football. Still, a win by the Quakers would move them into a tie for the Ivy League lead. And, if it went down to the end, they would have the tie-breaker over Harvard for conference championship.
Lafayette is currently in a tie with Holy Cross (which is playing Army) for the Patriot League lead. If they can avoid another loss, they could nail down the auto-bid because they hold the tie-breaker over Holy Cross. As Brint points out elsewhere, that could conceivably earn the Patriot two bids, since Holy Cross is very well thought of (ranked most of the year until just a couple weeks ago). Fordham probably has no chance at an at-large bid, but might yet make a case if they could win out by knocking off a ranked opponent.
With four losses already (three in conference), Samford is probably out of the playoff picture. They can, however, upset the applecart for Mercer, which needs a win to tie with Chattanooga in conference. Although Chattie holds the conference tie-breaker over Mercer, a win for the Bears would sit them at (8-3) … ahead of the Mocs (now 7-3), who are headed for a money game at Alabama. And, despite the difference in records, Samford has a credible chance to pull off the upset. Their losses include a visit to Auburn and three games against ranked FCS opponents. They lost by only 6 points to Furman, while Mercer lost by 24. On the other side, Samford thumped Wofford by 21, while Mercer won by 14. Of course, Mercer is at home.
With its four losses already, Elon is in much the same boat as Samford, with one huge difference: They and Richmond are two of five teams tied for the CAA lead at (5-1). Does that matter? If the Phoenix could somehow win this week and the week after at home against Hampton (currently 5-4), they would end up at 7-1 in conference and 7-4 overall. Of course, Richmond would drop out of that (5-1) tie. Two of the contenders – Villanova and Delaware – play each other in the last week of the season, so one will also end up with 2 losses. The fifth contender, Albany, has not played either Elon or Delaware (nor will they). I have no idea how the tie-breakers work in the CAA, but it seems like a team that shared the conference title by record would get a bid.
