Commentary
(Thanks, Brint for getting your “Games to follow … ” thread up. Helps put several in context.)
As Brint points out, with only one conference loss (4-1), South Dakota has a slight leg up in the MVFC race over the Salukis. Either way, the loser will have three losses, with tough games still to play. However, the winner could go 1-1 after that and still end at 8-3 … which, as we know, strongly favors an at-large bid out of the Valley.
How about this for the rest of the season? Games at #1, home #10, at #18. That’s what North Dakota State, which already has 2 losses, has to get through. As Brint says, they have to go at least go (2-1) through that to be reasonably confident of a bid at (8-3). At (7-4), they would be on the bubble, with no real “signature” wins.
The Nicholls at Incarnate Word game is both important and peculiar, partly because they both were scheduled to play games with Northwestern State, which canceled its remaining season. Technically then, both teams are 4-0 in conference, because the conference has declared those games “Forfeit,” so they count as wins. (FWIW: ESPN does not show them that way.) Inc Word was scheduled to play NW State on November 11, which is when they will get their conference “freebie.”
But the other reason is that totally misleading record for Nicholls. The Colonels lost their first three games to: Sacramento State (FCS #8 at the time), TCU, and Tulane. Meanwhile, after losing to FBS UTEP, Inc Word played cupcakes … including one D-II opponent. They have two common opponents: Both beat TA&M-Commerce handily (20 and 17 points). But Nicholls beat McNeese by three TDs, while Inc W squeaked by with 9 (and struggled at that). All that shows in a vast difference in their Strength of Schedule numbers (Sagarin): 52.01 for Nicholls versus 42.17 for Inc Word. Of course, the Cardinals are at home and have played well … at times. However, I do think Nicholls has a decent chance to win. If that happens, I’m not at all sure that Inc Word would get an at at-large bid with their pitiful SOS. They literally have not played anybody – aside from the D-II, the combined records of their opponents (which included Northern Colorado) is (10-37).
With three loses already, both William & Mary and Albany would be in dire straits if they lost this game. Unlike the MVFC – and somewhat the Big Sky – a (7-4) bubble team from the CAA can no longer feel comfortable about getting an at-large bid. And even that assumes they don’t lose another one.
Because New Hampshire already has 4 losses, they will – at best – be on that (7-4) bubble even if they manage to win out. At least if they get by Villanova, they face Monmouth (3-5) and Maine (2-7) to end the season. Why is there a glimmer of hope for an upset despite the difference in records? Well, to begin with, New Hampshire is at home. In their eight games so far, they’ve been home for only three … they did lose one in OT. (One of their road losses was also in OT.) New Hampshire has also played a much tougher schedule, including highly-ranked Delaware. (Both have one FBS loss.) Beyond that, UNH beat their one common opponent – Albany – by a (close) score of 38-31, while Villanova lost by 3 TDs. On the other hand, ‘Nova desperately needs this game to keep their hopes of a bid alive: After UNH, they face Towson and at #5 Delaware. A loss here and (likely) at Delaware would also throw them into that (7-4) limbo.
Brint has pretty much nailed it about the Chattanooga – Furman game: “this game will determine the auto-bid.” Aside from that, a Chattanooga loss could bring Mercer into the equation as to who might get an at-large bid out of the Southern Conference. I do not see the SoCon getting three bids, and Mercer could definitely overtake a three-loss Mocs team.
The Eastern Kentucky vs Austin Peay game in the hybrid United Athletic Conference is another one where the records offer a somewhat misleading picture. Granted, the Governors are ranked and their only two losses were to an FBS and a ranked FCS opponent. But in the meantime, the Colonels started the season at two FBS opponents and then lost to Western Carolina, which has been ranked as high as #11. They’ve lost only one time since. The fact that they’ve played a somewhat tougher schedule and are at home makes for a very credible chance for an upset.
