Upset Guesses, Non-BSC (Sept 21)

[IdaGriz01]

This is not really the best week to offer up a poll about upsets. Five ranked teams have taken byes, and several others are playing cupcakes. (Think NDSU at home against Delaware State ... and, of course, the Griz.) Take out the Big Sky teams and the pickin' get even slimmer. But I've tried.

BTW, what the Hell is Central Arkansas doing at #13. Their only win is against something called "Incarnate Word." One of their losses was to Colorado, but the other was to UT-Martin. (Goes to show.)

As in the past, the team listed on the left is considered the underdog.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Interesting that these "early returns" show a lot of love for Eastern Illinois over FBS Northern. Admittedly, NIU is a relatively weak FBS team, and one of their wins was against poor, hapless Idaho. Still, the other was against Iowa, and both games were on the road. This is NIU's first home game, or I'd agree with you more.

OTOH: I hope you got it right!

 

[Paytonlives]

Kitties lose to SFA!

 

[IdaGriz01]

Kitties lose to SFA!

Staying away from Big Sky teams gave me a good excuse not to include their game on the list.

Besides, I knew a bunch of people would pick it just to annoy the kittie fans who seem to like to wander over. FWIW, I think there IS a good chance of an upset there, particularly if SFA gets off to a quick start.

 

[Grizfan97007]

Interesting that these "early returns" show a lot of love for Eastern Illinois over FBS Northern. Admittedly, NIU is a relatively weak FBS team, and one of their wins was against poor, hapless Idaho. Still, the other was against Iowa, and both games were on the road. This is NIU's first home game, or I'd agree with you more.

OTOH: I hope you got it right!

I wouldn't quite Call NIU weak they made a BCS bowl last year. Not to mention they beat Iowa this year and should of last year they have beat a few big 10 teams in the few past years!

 

[IdaGriz01]

Interesting that these "early returns" show a lot of love for Eastern Illinois over FBS Northern. Admittedly, NIU is a relatively weak FBS team, and one of their wins was against poor, hapless Idaho. Still, the other was against Iowa, and both games were on the road. This is NIU's first home game, or I'd agree with you more.

OTOH: I hope you got it right!

I wouldn't quite call NIU weak. They made a BCS bowl last year. Not to mention they beat Iowa this year and should of last year they have beat a few big 10 teams in the few past years!

You're absolutely right. NIU has been very strong the last couple of years. I must have called up the wrong set of stats when I checked their records. Besides the BCS (Orange) Bowl last year, they've been to some sort of bowl every year since 2008. I'd say Eastern's chances were pretty slim. (FWIW, I believe I selected the option that allows you to change your vote. )

 

[signedbewildered]

Kitties lose to SFA!

That wouldn't upset me one bit.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Mildly surprised that Gardner-Webb hasn’t received a few more votes to upset Wofford. Each has a win against a weak opponent and a strong opponent, and their losses were to reasonably good FBS teams. Of course, home field favors Wofford, but I do not think G-W is totally over-matched in this game, which is what the voting so far is suggesting.

 

[Grizzaholic]

With likely losses for #6 South Dakota State at Nebraska and #8 Eastern Illinois to Northern Illinois...I wonder if that will bump up the Griz a spot or two after they destroy OPSU in an impressive fashion?

 

[IdaGriz01]

With likely losses for #6 South Dakota State at Nebraska and #8 Eastern Illinois to Northern Illinois...I wonder if that will bump up the Griz a spot or two after they destroy OPSU in an impressive fashion?

I'd say "possible," unless one or both of them manage to keep the score respectable. And I see reasons in both cases why that will be difficult.

Actually I feel a bit sorry for SDSU, because Nebraska has got to be smarting over the beat-down they got (at home) from UCLA. I imagine practice at Nebraska is pretty heated this week, and they're likely to take it out on the Jackrabbits.

The problem for Eastern Illinois is that Northern played its first two games -- both wins -- on the road. They, and the crowd, should be all fired up for their first home game. Plus, there have been just enough FCS upsets of FBS teams to get their attention. Probably a bad combination for Eastern.

Just about any loss hurts a team's poll rank. Even a "good" loss (avoiding a blow-out in a body-bag game) will cause the loser to slip at least a couple slots. But the effect also depends upon how the ranked teams around them do: If there's a major bloodbath among the top 10 teams, then all bets are off. But if form mostly prevails, I would guess that SDSU slips to maybe #8 or #9 and Eastern to #10 or #11.

All this might open something up for the Griz. But the real winner should be Northern Iowa, who will most likely crush NoColo. Since #5 Sam Houston is playing "Incarnate Word," a lackluster performance in that game could give N Iowa an extra bump

 

[Grizfan97007]

With likely losses for #6 South Dakota State at Nebraska and #8 Eastern Illinois to Northern Illinois...I wonder if that will bump up the Griz a spot or two after they destroy OPSU in an impressive fashion?

I'd say "possible," unless one or both of them manage to keep the score respectable. And I see reasons in both cases why that will be difficult.

Actually I feel a bit sorry for SDSU, because Nebraska has got to be smarting over the beat-down they got (at home) from UCLA. I imagine practice at Nebraska is pretty heated this week, and they're likely to take it out on the Jackrabbits.

The problem for Eastern Illinois is that Northern played its first two games -- both wins -- on the road. They, and the crowd, should be all fired up for their first home game. Plus, there have been just enough FCS upsets of FBS teams to get their attention. Probably a bad combination for Eastern.

Just about any loss hurts a team's poll rank. Even a "good" loss (avoiding a blow-out in a body-bag game) will cause the loser to slip at least a couple slots. But the effect also depends upon how the ranked teams around them do: If there's a major bloodbath among the top 10 teams, then all bets are off. But if form mostly prevails, I would guess that SDSU slips to maybe #8 or #9 and Eastern to #10 or #11.

All this might open something up for the Griz. But the real winner should be Northern Iowa, who will most likely crush NoColo. Since #5 Sam Houston is playing "Incarnate Word," a lackluster performance in that game could give N Iowa an extra bump

Doesn't every poll take into consideration the schedule? It might have been discussed on here before. I hate to say it but they might say Oh Montana destroyed a horrible D2 team they don't deserve to move into the top 5

 

[IdaGriz01]

With likely losses for #6 South Dakota State at Nebraska and #8 Eastern Illinois to Northern Illinois...I wonder if that will bump up the Griz a spot or two after they destroy OPSU in an impressive fashion?

I'd say "possible," unless one or both of them manage to keep the score respectable. And I see reasons in both cases why that will be difficult.

Actually I feel a bit sorry for SDSU, because Nebraska has got to be smarting over the beat-down they got (at home) from UCLA. I imagine practice at Nebraska is pretty heated this week, and they're likely to take it out on the Jackrabbits.

The problem for Eastern Illinois is that Northern played its first two games -- both wins -- on the road. They, and the crowd, should be all fired up for their first home game. Plus, there have been just enough FCS upsets of FBS teams to get their attention. Probably a bad combination for Eastern.

Just about any loss hurts a team's poll rank. Even a "good" loss (avoiding a blow-out in a body-bag game) will cause the loser to slip at least a couple slots. But the effect also depends upon how the ranked teams around them do: If there's a major bloodbath among the top 10 teams, then all bets are off. But if form mostly prevails, I would guess that SDSU slips to maybe #8 or #9 and Eastern to #10 or #11.

All this might open something up for the Griz. But the real winner should be Northern Iowa, who will most likely crush NoColo. Since #5 Sam Houston is playing "Incarnate Word," a lackluster performance in that game could give N Iowa an extra bump

Doesn't every poll take into consideration the schedule? It might have been discussed on here before. I hate to say it but they might say Oh Montana destroyed a horrible D2 team they don't deserve to move into the top 5.

Who knows what some pollsters take into consideration when they vote? :silly:

But aside from cross-the-board losses above them, I cannot image the Griz moving up more than one or two spots ... depending upon how SDSU and Eastern do (blow-outs vs hanging tough). I do think that Northern Iowa will be the real poll winner. They should easily move to #5, and if Towson (on the road) got upset, they could go as high as #4.

 

[Brock Landers]

EIU over NIU

NIU struggled mightily with Idaho and EIU has been rolling people

 

[IdaGriz01]

EIU over NIU

NIU struggled mightily with Idaho and EIU has been rolling people

EIU certainly thumped two of its three opponents (San Diego St and Illinois State) but had to go into OT to win by a FG at Southern Illinois. But you're generally right about NIU: They only beat Iowa by a FG (at Iowa, though) and Idaho (at Moscow) by 10 points.

Did you enter your vote?

 

[Grizfan97007]

EIU over NIU

NIU struggled mightily with Idaho and EIU has been rolling people

EIU certainly thumped two of its three opponents (San Diego St and Illinois State) but had to go into OT to win by a FG at Southern Illinois. But you're generally right about NIU: They only beat Iowa by a FG (at Iowa, though) and Idaho (at Moscow) by 10 points.

Did you enter your vote?

I can't see EIU beating NIU. They played Florida St close in the first half of the orange bowl and I think they pretty much have the same team back this year.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Don't recall seeing two selections take over the voting quite like this week.

I'd give Liberty a better chance myself ... if they were at home, rather than at Richmond.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Hmmm, trouble for Stony Brook:
Their best DB and Special Teams guy, Reuben Johnson, was injured in the Buffalo game and is out for the season. He was a stud, selected as CAA Defensive Player of the Week earlier and leading many of their ST and defensive stats.

Also, their leading rusher, Marcus Coker, was injured enough to be dropped from the depth chart. (He’s back on, but the fans seem to figure that’s a fake and he won’t be ready to play against Villanova.)

They may have also lost their starting defensive end, but no one’s talking much about that.

Having had a bye week ‘Nova is apparently in pretty good shape as far as injuries go.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Nothing really new to say. For those of us who can't be at WaGriz: Can't find any place to watch the Liberty at Richmond game, but 'Nova vs Stony Brook is listed on DirecTV Channel 643 this afternoon.

 

[IdaGriz01]

So far, form is holding on one, and the "favorite" eGriz upset is on track. Towson is winning handily over NC Central (35-17 in Q4), while Villanova is pretty dominant over Stony Brook (21-0 at Half).

BTW, South Dakota State is giving Nebraska a tussle ... oops, check that, just went to 28-17 Nebraska, midway through Q2.

(Other upset matches start later.)

 

[IdaGriz01]

Hmmm. Eastern Illinois and Northern are tied 33-33 going into the final quarter.

Edit: Okay, Northern moved down and managed a FG (36-33), 11:24 left in the game (plenty of time, all around).