Upset Guesses, Non-BSC (Oct 27)

[IdaGriz01]

Dipped a bit deeper into the polls to get what I thought would be better matchups: The opponents for #9 JMU, #10 Stony Brook, and #12 New Hampshire have a collective record of 3-20 ... not many likely upsets among those games. #8 Lehigh is idle. (#1, #4, #11, and #13 are, of course, in the Big Sky, so I was going to have to go down deeper anyway.)

I used the SE Louisiana game because right now SE La, despite a worse overall record, leads their conference with a 3-0 record. Central Arkansas is 4-1 in conference. The Towson-Villanova game is the only other one where two ranked teams face off.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Going on their comparative records the Towson-Villanova looks like a bit of a mismatch, especially with Villanova playing at home. Over on the polls thread, someone questioned how a team with a losing record could even be ranked (there IS a reason).

Towson has played a much tougher schedule, and it shows up in the numbers (Sagarin SOS 58.2 vs 49.6 for ‘Nova; RPI site SOS 55.2 vs 45.7 for ‘Nova).

Out of conference, Towson lost to Kent State (6-1, currently leading the FBS MAC-East) and LSU (currently #6 FBS), and beat St. Francis (PA) (admittedly a weak sister even in the weak Northeastern conference). In-conference, the combined records of their opponents are 15-13 (not great, but winning).

Villanova’s OOC record includes a loss to Temple (3-3, mid-pack in the Big East), and wins against Fordham (4-3, way down in the pitiful Patriot League) and Pennsylvania (2-4, mid-pack in the lame Ivy League). In-conference, the combined records of their opponents is 14-23 (hmmm).

 

[Geddes]

I would stay away from Towson, simply because of the weirdness going on there with the head coach..but maybe the team comes out with their hair on fire?

 

[IdaGriz01]

I would stay away from Towson, simply because of the weirdness going on there with the head coach..but maybe the team comes out with their hair on fire?

The guy is certainly a bit weird ... but at least he's an equal-opportunity insulter of cherished religious figures. This is apparently from one of his rah-rah speeches to the team:

Listen — are you guys listening? LISTEN UP. I do not care what your religion is. I do not care if I offend anyone. Even if Jesus and his disciples come in here. Even if God himself floated on in here with Buddha on his shoulders while holding an accurately-drawn picture of Muhammad. Hell, even if your own grandmother used some type of reverse-Looper technology and walked in here holding YOU as an infant while singing hymns and begging for peace. We are going to f**k them up and get them the f**k out of here. F**K. THEM. UP. You guys hear me?

I suppose it would all be in the delivery, but I'd have a hard not cracking up, listening to this. (Probably end up running laps. )

 

[IdaGriz01]

Not quite sure why a possible Citadel upset of Wofford is the #2 choice .. . although you can certainly make a case.
First, The Citadel has played a tougher schedule. Each team played a Big South opponent, with Wofford against Gardner-Web (a patsy, now 1-6) while Cit played Charleston Southern (3-4, not exactly a powerhouse, but stronger).
And where Cit played FBS NC State (5-2), Wofford played a bad (1-7 record) D-II school.

Against common opponents: Both played at App State and won ... Cit by 24, Wofford by 10. Cit played Ga Southern at home and won by 2, Wofford play at GaSo and lost by 8.
In their other conference games, Cit played teams with a cumulative 10-13 record (but, of course, they lost two of those three games). Wofford’s other opponents, whom they beat, were cumulatively 6-17.

So you can stretch to get a case ... but there were those three losses in a row. Perhaps there was some specific reason (key injury?) for that ... which has now changed?

 

[IdaGriz01]

:wtf:
Why this sudden surge in votes for Delaware to beat ODU at ODU? Did I miss a headline?

 

[IdaGriz01]

Delaware gave ODU all they could handle, but could not pull off the upset.

Towson leads 'Nova by 14, but 'Nova is driving. Nope ... over on downs, less that 6 min to go. Won't be a huge upset, but it counts.