Upset Guesses, Non-BSC (Nov 17)

[IdaGriz01]

This week is kinda weird. Two ranked teams are idle, one of them in the top ten (App State). Not only that, but three top-ten teams (Sam Houston State, Ga Southern, and Wofford) are playing teams ranked in the top ten of the FBS polls (#8 Texas A&M, #5 Georgia, and #9 So Carolina), respectively). Is that scary, or what? On top of that, four ranked teams are listed over in the Big Sky upset poll.

All that is why I had to dip down, way out of the top ten. Of course, those lower-tier games are very important at this stage of the season. Lehigh must win, IMO, to assure itself of an at-large bid. Then you have four 7-3 teams have no shot at a bid if they lose (and, except for JMU, maybe not that much of one even if they win).

(As before, team on the left is considered the under-dog.)

 

[kurtismichael]

Towson and James Madison. No particular reason just random guesses.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Not much interest in these non-Big Sky matchups, and no clear consensus among the few who have voted.

Yet every one of these games could have an impact on who does, or does not get a bid into the playoffs -- and certainly on the seedings. Among the 14 teams listed in the poll, there are 4 with (7-3) records and 3 at (8-2). With a few key upsets, we could come out of those seven games with 7 teams that have (8-3) final records.

It gets worse, if you look at the other ranked teams (outside the Big Sky, for the moment). That adds 5 more teams at (8-2) and 3 at (7-3). Three of those (8-2) teams play powerful FBS opponents and will (barring a miracle) end up 8-3. Counting those 3, the possible 7 from the upset poll, and the other ranked-team matchups, we could come out of next weekend with 15 teams that have (8-3) records. Only two of the relevant matchups are so one-sided as to make an upset unlikely … but that still leaves a very possible 13 teams with (8-3) final records.

That matters for two reasons: First, since NAU and Cal Poly both have (8-2) records, one is bound to end up at (8-3). How will the loser stack up against those 13-15 other teams with that record? Second, PSU is at home, so an upset there is not out of the question -- leaving EWU at (8-3). Uh-oh. What then?

 

[IdaGriz01]

The Great 8-3 Conundrum
Just for fun, I thought I’d lay out the potential (8-3) teams that the committee might have to deal with come Saturday evening. In each case, I offer an opinion about what would need to happen.

Incredibly, out of ALL the ranked teams, only three -- #2 MSU (9-1), #12 Stony Brook (9-2), and #14 Lehigh (9-1) -- do NOT figure in the “great 8-3 conundrum,” either directly or as the opponent. Stony Brook has completed its schedule -- most experts think it has only an outside shot at an at-large bid. Lehigh is playing at Lafayette (5-5) and should win -- its chance for an at-large bid is also considered pretty shaky.

Anyway, my earlier count was too conservative: If all the FCS upsets happen, we end up with 19 teams having 8-3 records. And some of those upsets are not all that unlikely. If none of the upsets happen, there will still be 10 teams with 8-3 records. Reality is likely to be somewhere in between.

Counting automatic and at-large bids, the 10-19 teams with (8-3) records have to be shoe-horned into 13 slots, because seven are “taken”: MSU is surely a lock, as are NDSU, ODU, and the winner of the CP-NAU game. Beyond those four, three automatic bids are taken, or will be taken by unranked teams. (Big South: Unranked team almost certain to get automatic bid. NEC: Unranked team will claim their automatic bid. Patriot: Unranked team, Colgate, has clinched the automatic bid.) That number goes down to 11 if Stony Brook and Lehigh get bids.

(FW = “favorite wins”)
#1 NDSU (9-1) at #11 Ill State (8-2) … FW … Illinois State (8-3)
#3 SHSU (8-2) at FBS Tex A&M … Ouch … Sam Houston State (8-3)
#4 ODU (9-1) at #13 JMU (7-3) … Upset … James Madison (8-3)
#5 EWU (8-2) at PSU (3-7) … Upset … Eastern Washington (8-3)
#6 Ga So (8-2) at FBS Georgia … Ouch … Georgia Southern (8-3)
#7 UNH (8-2) vs #19 Towson (6-4) … Upset … New Hampshire (8-3)
#8 App State (8-3) … Idle … Appalachian State (8-3)
#9 Wofford (8-2) at FBS So Carolina … Ouch … Wofford (8-3)
#10 Cent Ark (8-2) vs #24 E Illini (7-3) … Upset … Central Arkansas (8-3), Eastern Illinois (8-3)
#15 NAU (8-2) vs #17 Cal Poly … whatever … NAU or CP (8-3)
#16 Nova (7-3) at Delaware (5-5) … FW … Villanova (8-3)
#18 Indi State (7-3) at YSU (6-4) … FW … Indiana State (8-3)
#20 Richmond (7-3) at W&M (2-8) … FW … Richmond (8-3)
#21 SDSU (7-3) vs USD (1-9) … FW … So Dakota State (8-3)
#22 E Kentucky (8-3) … Idle … Eastern Kentucky (8-3)
#23 Tenn State (8-2) at Ten-Martin (7-3) … (Mild) Upset … Tennessee State (8-3), Tennessee-Martin (8-3)
#24 Beth-Cook (8-2) vs Florida A&M (4-6) … Upset … Bethune-Cookman (8-3)

 

[ilovethecats]

that is crazy. i assume you meant that SHSU is 8-2 and not 8-3 right?

 

[IdaGriz01]

that is crazy. i assume you meant that SHSU is 8-2 and not 8-3 right?

Yep. Lots of numbers and got ahead of myself. Of course, I could say I was just anticipating the inevitable, but, no, I just screwed up.)

 

[ilovethecats]

that is crazy. i assume you meant that SHSU is 8-2 and not 8-3 right?

Yep. Lots of numbers and got ahead of myself. Of course, I could say I was just anticipating the inevitable, but, no, I just screwed up.)

figured. there was a ton of info there and i just wanted to make sure i was reading right. not sure i have ever seen so many scenariors and implications at the end if the year before. great stuff.

 

[Cats2506]

that is crazy. i assume you meant that SHSU is 8-2 and not 8-3 right?

Yep. Lots of numbers and got ahead of myself. Of course, I could say I was just anticipating the inevitable, but, no, I just screwed up.)

figured. there was a ton of info there and i just wanted to make sure i was reading right. not sure i have ever seen so many scenariors and implications at the end if the year before. great stuff.

yeah, the end of the year records are looking really weird this year

 

[IdaGriz01]

As noted on another thread, the GPI generated by the College Sporting News will be one of the primary tools used to determine what teams get at-large bids: http://www.collegesportingnews.com/content.php?863-NCAA-Using-CSN-s-GPI

The NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee has once again extended an invitation to College Sporting News to have our Gridiron Power Index (GPI) used as a tool for the selection of teams for the 2012 NCAA Division I Football Championship.

So I went over and looked at those numbers, along with the "(8-3) conundrum" thing I did above. Based on those numbers -- and with NO upsets required -- it looks like there could be at least five teams with 8-3 records who will be left out of the playoffs. With one key upset, there could be seven (ouch!).

 

[IdaGriz01]

Many people thought Towson might have a chance at UNH because they've been so hot ... chances just went down

The Colonial Athletic Association has suspended Towson senior free safety Jordan Dangerfield from a critical conference game at New Hampshire on Saturday as a result of his two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties against Rhode Island last weekend. ... The three-year starter, from Royal Palm Beach, Fla., has made 69 tackles this season - second on the team - with a team-leading six pass breakups.