Now that a betting line is out on the FCS games, I thought I’d see how our poll guesses match (or don’t) with what the so-called “smart money” says. Of course, every line gives the nod to the favorite, so a narrow spread should correlate with a higher chance of an upset, i.e. more votes in the poll.
By this criteria, we’re doing only okay. The bookies show our number-two vote getter, Maine, with the smallest spread, -3.5 ... so that’s good. But they do not see our number-one vote getter, SE Louisiana, as being in a close enough game to make an upset likely. While the line at -7.5 does not make SELa a prohibitive favorite, that’s the same spread they have for McNeese. Why have 43 voters picked SELa to be upset, and only 5 thought that would happen to McNeese? Hmmm.
I understand the “wishful thinking” in the 13 voters that hope NDSU might be upset, even though the bookies have the Bison as a prohibitive -29.5 favorite. Same, in reverse, for only 5 votes for an upset of Montana, even though the line is only -4.5.
The other low vote-getter, Eastern Illinois, is pretty good, since the line has Eastern as a prohibitive favorite at -22.5. As I said ... we’re only doing okay.
