Upset Guesses, BSC (Nov 10)

[IdaGriz01]

Three Big Sky teams have byes next weekend: UM, Sac State, and North Dakota.

Since the Griz are not playing, I thought about allowing only one upset choice. But with so many people who "automatically" pick against the kitties, I kept it at two.

Underdog on the left, of course. For once during the season, I get to list No Colorado as the "favorite" because they have the better record. :lol: :lol:

 

[kurtismichael]

Tough to pick this week.

 

[poiuyter]

Should of put the griz up. Those "bi" games can go either way.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Not sure why so many think Southern Utah can win over NAU in Flagstaff ... I suppose it's because people remember a history of late-season NAU meltdowns. And the numbers back up that notion. In the five years from 2007 to 2011, inclusive, NAU compiled a 27-28 cumulative record (one under .500).
But going into the final two games, their record was 25-20: Not great, but solidly over .500. They then went 2-8 for the final two games (oops). The meltdown was particularly bad in the period 2007-2009: They went into the final three games with an excellent 16-8 record, but won just a single game (1-8) the rest of the way. (Ouch!)

Even the last year NAU went into the playoffs -- 2003 -- had a somewhat similar pattern. Going into the final three games, they were 6-1. (NAU only played 10 regular season games in 2003.) They then lost two straight before winning the last regular season to qualify for the playoffs at 7-3. (They did win two road games and get to the quarterfinals before losing to Florida Atlantic, back when that team was 1-AA.)
[Small edit.]

 

[Cats2506]

Not sure why so many think Southern Utah can win over NAU in Flagstaff ... I suppose it's because people remember a history of late-season NAU meltdowns. And the numbers back up that notion. In the five years from 2007 to 2011, inclusive, NAU compiled a 27-28 cumulative record (one under .500).
But going into the final two games, their record was 25-20: Not great, but solidly over .500. They then went 2-8 for the final two games (oops). The meltdown was particularly bad in the period 2007-2009: They went into the final three games with an excellent 16-8 record, but won just a single game (1-8) the rest of the way. (Ouch!)

Even the last year NAU went into the playoffs -- 2003 -- had a somewhat similar pattern. Going into the final three games, they were 6-1 (teams only played 10 games back then). They then lost two straight before winning the last regular season to qualify for the playoffs at 7-3. (They did win two road games and get to the quarterfinals before losing to Florida Atlantic, back when that team was 1-AA.)

Its as much about SUU as it is NAU.

SUU won in Flagstaff last year
SUU plays at elevation at home and is a close trip and natural rival to NAU
SUU has a hell of a good QB that can find weakness in almost any secondary
SUU is better than their record, they have dropped some games they shouldn't have
SUU has played a stronger schedule IMO

I'm just saying that they have a good shot.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Not sure why so many think Southern Utah can win over NAU in Flagstaff ... I suppose it's because people remember a history of late-season NAU meltdowns. And the numbers back up that notion. In the five years from 2007 to 2011, inclusive, NAU compiled a 27-28 cumulative record (one under .500).
But going into the final two games, their record was 25-20: Not great, but solidly over .500. They then went 2-8 for the final two games (oops). The meltdown was particularly bad in the period 2007-2009: They went into the final three games with an excellent 16-8 record, but won just a single game (1-8) the rest of the way. (Ouch!)

Even the last year NAU went into the playoffs -- 2003 -- had a somewhat similar pattern. Going into the final three games, they were 6-1 (teams only played 10 games back then). They then lost two straight before winning the last regular season to qualify for the playoffs at 7-3. (They did win two road games and get to the quarterfinals before losing to Florida Atlantic, back when that team was 1-AA.)

Its as much about SUU as it is NAU.

SUU won in Flagstaff last year
SUU plays at elevation at home and is a close trip and natural rival to NAU
SUU has a hell of a good QB that can find weakness in almost any secondary
SUU is better than their record, they have dropped some games they shouldn't have
SUU has played a stronger schedule IMO

I'm just saying that they have a good shot.

The RPI site, and Sagarin, agree with you about the SOS: #115 SOS for SUU vs #243 for NAU (RPI site). #126 for SUU vs #151 NAU (Sagarin).
Add in the meltdown history, and ... NAU should be worried.

 

[Cats2506]

Not sure why so many think Southern Utah can win over NAU in Flagstaff ... I suppose it's because people remember a history of late-season NAU meltdowns. And the numbers back up that notion. In the five years from 2007 to 2011, inclusive, NAU compiled a 27-28 cumulative record (one under .500).
But going into the final two games, their record was 25-20: Not great, but solidly over .500. They then went 2-8 for the final two games (oops). The meltdown was particularly bad in the period 2007-2009: They went into the final three games with an excellent 16-8 record, but won just a single game (1-8) the rest of the way. (Ouch!)

Even the last year NAU went into the playoffs -- 2003 -- had a somewhat similar pattern. Going into the final three games, they were 6-1 (teams only played 10 games back then). They then lost two straight before winning the last regular season to qualify for the playoffs at 7-3. (They did win two road games and get to the quarterfinals before losing to Florida Atlantic, back when that team was 1-AA.)

Its as much about SUU as it is NAU.

SUU won in Flagstaff last year
SUU plays at elevation at home and is a close trip and natural rival to NAU
SUU has a hell of a good QB that can find weakness in almost any secondary
SUU is better than their record, they have dropped some games they shouldn't have
SUU has played a stronger schedule IMO

I'm just saying that they have a good shot.

The RPI site, and Sagarin, agree with you about the SOS: #115 SOS for SUU vs #243 for NAU (RPI site). #126 for SUU vs #151 NAU (Sagarin).
Add in the meltdown history, and ... NAU should be worried.

If I say IMO, It pretty much a guarentee, you really dont have to look it up

But thanks anyway :thumb:

 

[IdaGriz01]

It makes sense that the WSU-UNC game would get some attention. The difference between these two losers is very thin. Northern Colorado has a better RPI (ranked #215 vs #231 for WSU). But the weebs have a slightly better Strength of Schedule: 52.7 vs 49.9 for UNC (RPI site), or 61.7 vs 59.6 for UNC (Sagarin). The Sagarin numbers, including the home-field advantage, give NoColo a 2-point edge (Safety? :lol: ).

 

[knhoj]

Not sure why so many think Southern Utah can win over NAU in Flagstaff ... I suppose it's because people remember a history of late-season NAU meltdowns. And the numbers back up that notion. In the five years from 2007 to 2011, inclusive, NAU compiled a 27-28 cumulative record (one under .500).
But going into the final two games, their record was 25-20: Not great, but solidly over .500. They then went 2-8 for the final two games (oops). The meltdown was particularly bad in the period 2007-2009: They went into the final three games with an excellent 16-8 record, but won just a single game (1-8) the rest of the way. (Ouch!)

Even the last year NAU went into the playoffs -- 2003 -- had a somewhat similar pattern. Going into the final three games, they were 6-1 (teams only played 10 games back then). They then lost two straight before winning the last regular season to qualify for the playoffs at 7-3. (They did win two road games and get to the quarterfinals before losing to Florida Atlantic, back when that team was 1-AA.)

Wrong...both MSU and UM played 12 regular season games in 2003, and NAU played 11. NAU finished the regular season at 8-3 that year. Both MSU and UM have been playing 11 game schedules since the early to mid 80's, except for those years in which there's an extra week in the season (such as 2003), when they play 12 games.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Not sure why so many think Southern Utah can win over NAU in Flagstaff ... I suppose it's because people remember a history of late-season NAU meltdowns. And the numbers back up that notion. In the five years from 2007 to 2011, inclusive, NAU compiled a 27-28 cumulative record (one under .500).
But going into the final two games, their record was 25-20: Not great, but solidly over .500. They then went 2-8 for the final two games (oops). The meltdown was particularly bad in the period 2007-2009: They went into the final three games with an excellent 16-8 record, but won just a single game (1-8) the rest of the way. (Ouch!)

Even the last year NAU went into the playoffs -- 2003 -- had a somewhat similar pattern. Going into the final three games, they were 6-1. (NAU only played 10 regular season games in 2003.) They then lost two straight before winning the last regular season to qualify for the playoffs at 7-3. (They did win two road games and get to the quarterfinals before losing to Florida Atlantic, back when that team was 1-AA.)

Wrong...both MSU and UM played 12 regular season games in 2003, and NAU played 11. NAU finished the regular season at 8-3 that year. Both MSU and UM have been playing 11 game schedules since the early to mid 80's, except for those years in which there's an extra week in the season (such as 2003), when they play 12 games.

Fixed it. Made a blanket statement, when I should have stuck with NAU only.

According to this archive http://cfreference.net/cfr/schools/northern-arizona/1025/2003, as well as ESPN, NAU ended the 2003 regular season 7-3, then won two games in the playoffs before losing to Florida Atlantic.

 

[knhoj]

Not sure why so many think Southern Utah can win over NAU in Flagstaff ... I suppose it's because people remember a history of late-season NAU meltdowns. And the numbers back up that notion. In the five years from 2007 to 2011, inclusive, NAU compiled a 27-28 cumulative record (one under .500).
But going into the final two games, their record was 25-20: Not great, but solidly over .500. They then went 2-8 for the final two games (oops). The meltdown was particularly bad in the period 2007-2009: They went into the final three games with an excellent 16-8 record, but won just a single game (1-8) the rest of the way. (Ouch!)

Even the last year NAU went into the playoffs -- 2003 -- had a somewhat similar pattern. Going into the final three games, they were 6-1. (NAU only played 10 regular season games in 2003.) They then lost two straight before winning the last regular season to qualify for the playoffs at 7-3. (They did win two road games and get to the quarterfinals before losing to Florida Atlantic, back when that team was 1-AA.)

Wrong...both MSU and UM played 12 regular season games in 2003, and NAU played 11. NAU finished the regular season at 8-3 that year. Both MSU and UM have been playing 11 game schedules since the early to mid 80's, except for those years in which there's an extra week in the season (such as 2003), when they play 12 games.

Fixed it. Made a blanket statement, when I should have stuck with NAU only.

According to this archive http://cfreference.net/cfr/schools/northern-arizona/1025/2003, as well as ESPN, NAU ended the 2003 regular season 7-3, then won two games in the playoffs before losing to Florida Atlantic.

Nope...their 11/15 win at SHSU would have been a non-conference regular season game, since the regular season didn't end until 11/22 that year, giving them a final regular season record of 8-3. Then they beat McNeese in the first round of the playoffs, before losing to FAU in the quarterfinals.

 

[jacksdude0109]

wow not a lot of faith in my jacks :| i have to say i am nervous about this one

 

[IdaGriz01]

... Nope...their 11/15 win at SHSU would have been a non-conference regular season game, since the regular season didn't end until 11/22 that year, giving them a final regular season record of 8-3. Then they beat McNeese in the first round of the playoffs, before losing to FAU in the quarterfinals.

You're absolutely right. I really didn't pay enough attention to the date and just assumed that they played at SHSU as a first-round playoff game. ("Never assume!")

Couple of other interesting points about that 2003 NAU season. That was the next-to-last year for Florida Atlantic in 1AA football. (They went 9-2 in the regular season and won two playoff games before losing Colgate in the Semi-finals.) In 2005, they joined the Sun Belt Conference (where they went 2-9).
On the flip side, 2003 was the last year St. Mary's (CA) -- which NAU walloped in their first game -- had college football. They went 1-11 that year and disbanded the program before the 2004 season.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Surprised that the total bobcat haters haven't pushed the PSU upset more. A reflection of how bad Portland State is, I suspect ... since they couldn't even beat NoColo playing at home.