UM No. 1 in Conference Scoring Defense and Red Zone Defense

[CDAGRIZ]

CDA where you at? This thread needs your insight more than ever, statistically speaking!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk - now Free

Sorry guys. I had a conference all weekend in Phoenix, and it sucked. You usually have to go to Riverside to see that many flat bills and energy drinks.

I think I can clear up the statistical debate, however. I learned that, when totaling football statistics, one should likely count the football in which the player or team engages. Now, I think counting the tennis in which the football player or team engages is less instructive in tallying football statistics, and the synchronized swimming is of even less import. Counting only the football that the Griz have played this year, the stats are what they are on ESPN.com, Fox Sports, and a host of other websites that apparently do this sort of thing for commercial gain.

 

[AZGrizFan]

PR has been cheating and starting a bunch of OTHER threads about stats....he's conspiring against us getting this one to 17 pages.

 

[CDAGRIZ]

PR has been cheating and starting a bunch of OTHER threads about stats....he's conspiring against us getting this one to 17 pages.

No excuses, play like a champion!

 

[kurtismichael]

PR has been cheating and starting a bunch of OTHER threads about stats....he's conspiring against us getting this one to 17 pages.

No excuses, play like a champion!

Numbers Never Lie. Michael Smith told me that.

One more post in pursuit of 17 pages. Your welcome.

 

[AZGrizFan]

PR has been cheating and starting a bunch of OTHER threads about stats....he's conspiring against us getting this one to 17 pages.

No excuses, play like a champion!

Numbers Never Lie. Michael Smith told me that.

One more post in pursuit of 17 pages. Your welcome.

one post? That's what we get from you?

 

[kurtismichael]

PR has been cheating and starting a bunch of OTHER threads about stats....he's conspiring against us getting this one to 17 pages.

No excuses, play like a champion!

Numbers Never Lie. Michael Smith told me that.

One more post in pursuit of 17 pages. Your welcome.

one post? That's what we get from you?

With the government shutdown yes, I've deemed myself non essential. But hey I just doubled my production on this thread.

 

[AZGrizFan]

No excuses, play like a champion!

Numbers Never Lie. Michael Smith told me that.

One more post in pursuit of 17 pages. Your welcome.

one post? That's what we get from you?

With the government shutdown yes, I've deemed myself non essential. But hey I just doubled my production on this thread.

:lol:

 

[CDAGRIZ]

PR has been cheating and starting a bunch of OTHER threads about stats....he's conspiring against us getting this one to 17 pages.

No excuses, play like a champion!

Numbers Never Lie. Michael Smith told me that.

One more post in pursuit of 17 pages. Your welcome.

I think that's right. But you have to use the correct numbers. It doesn't do much good to just use the season totals to determine the season totals. Over in Bozeman, they are good with numbers, so they know that you have to use a subset of the available data to determine anything of use. Why look at everything if you don't have to?

 

[PTGrizzly]

Are we there yet?

 

[kurtismichael]

Are we there yet?

Pick up the pace PT, still 5 pages to go!

 

[BDizzle]

I was gonna start at page 1 but I figured reading the last few posts give me enough info to make an accurate assessment of this thread. Isn't that what we do with football stats? Who cares about the first 4 games. Lets just look at the last 2.

 

[CDAGRIZ]

I was gonna start at page 1 but I figured reading the last few posts give me enough info to make an accurate assessment of this thread. Isn't that what we do with football stats? Who cares about the first 4 games. Lets just look at the last 2.

It's not that simple. Sheesh, get with the program. As best I can tell, if the first few games happen to produce favorable stats for MSU, you are free to use those games. You can also use unfavorable stats from UM's first few games. If, however, those first few games happen to produce even more favorable stats for UM, the games are off limits. Also, and obviously, any UM loss is fair game. That is the basic principle.

The rub comes with games in which a key player is out, or there is some other reason why a particular team "did not play up to its potential." Said games are off limits for MSU stats (because if [blank], then they would have won), but fair game for UM (because the other team caused the loss).

No word yet on whether we count games where a key player is hurt during the game. My proposal is that we should break it down into sub-quarters and sub-subquarters to determine the player's points (or yards/tackles/etc.) above replacement. Then, we can use that figure to somehow extrapolate the "should have been" final score (or yards/tackles/etc.)

Simply using the season totals is for quakers. This is the wave of the future.

 

[jodcon]

What about if a key player on the other side is injured during the game, does that diminish the win by a certain percentage? The win should be discounted 1.666% for each minute the key player missed during that game, unless your team also had a key player missing, in which case only the difference in actual minutes missed will be added to or subtracted from the winning calculations using the aforementioned formula.

 

[CDAGRIZ]

What about if a key player on the other side is injured during the game, does that diminish the win by a certain percentage? The win should be discounted 1.666% for each minute the key player missed during that game, unless your team also had a key player missing, in which case only the difference in actual minutes missed will be added to or subtracted from the winning calculations using the aforementioned formula.

Very good question. I think we can still use the "should have been" final score formula. We will just have to add points to the other team.

If we have a key player missing on both teams, we have to determine the players' merit relative to each other by netting the relative "[stat] above replacement." We can also use this for partial injuries (like if McGillcutty is feeling only 85%, there should an adjustment.

What remains to be seen is what we use to determine the two injured players' "[stat] above replacement" for the relative comparison of same with one another. Do we use all the games, or just some? What if they play different positions and have different metrics by which to measure their relative merit? What is more important? A sack, or first down catch? What if the replacement does a better job than the starter (a good possibility at MSU where the third string should start)? Do they then get less of a handicap on the stats?

My simple minded liberal arts education keeps telling me that we should just use all the stats because it's the only feasible way to do it. But I know there will be a Cat fan with a calculator who will come save the day.

 

[jodcon]

What about if a key player on the other side is injured during the game, does that diminish the win by a certain percentage? The win should be discounted 1.666% for each minute the key player missed during that game, unless your team also had a key player missing, in which case only the difference in actual minutes missed will be added to or subtracted from the winning calculations using the aforementioned formula.

Very good question. I think we can still use the "should have been" final score formula. We will just have to add points to the other team.

If we have a key player missing on both teams, we have to determine the players' merit relative to each other by netting the relative "[stat] above replacement." We can also use this for partial injuries (like if McGillcutty is feeling only 85%, there should an adjustment.

What remains to be seen is what we use to determine the two injured players' "[stat] above replacement" for the relative comparison of same with one another. Do we use all the games, or just some? What if they play different positions and have different metrics by which to measure their relative merit? What is more important? A sack, or first down catch? What if the replacement does a better job than the starter (a good possibility at MSU where the third string should start)? Do they then get less of a handicap on the stats?

My simple minded liberal arts education keeps telling me that we should just use all the stats because it's the only feasible way to do it. But I know there will be a Cat fan with a calculator who will come save the day.

After careful consideration, whats obvious is if a player gets dinged up during the game, regardless whether it is a hangnail, cramp...whether menstrual or other...or other injury, the affected player under no circumstances should return to the game because the potential gain in statistical advantage from him being out could not be overcome by any level of play he could achieve.

Additionally, any team who could somehow stack 5 or 6 of these minor injuries on a given day and replace all those players would be virtually unbeatable given the aggregate additional statistical edge.

 

[CDAGRIZ]

What about if a key player on the other side is injured during the game, does that diminish the win by a certain percentage? The win should be discounted 1.666% for each minute the key player missed during that game, unless your team also had a key player missing, in which case only the difference in actual minutes missed will be added to or subtracted from the winning calculations using the aforementioned formula.

Very good question. I think we can still use the "should have been" final score formula. We will just have to add points to the other team.

If we have a key player missing on both teams, we have to determine the players' merit relative to each other by netting the relative "[stat] above replacement." We can also use this for partial injuries (like if McGillcutty is feeling only 85%, there should an adjustment.

What remains to be seen is what we use to determine the two injured players' "[stat] above replacement" for the relative comparison of same with one another. Do we use all the games, or just some? What if they play different positions and have different metrics by which to measure their relative merit? What is more important? A sack, or first down catch? What if the replacement does a better job than the starter (a good possibility at MSU where the third string should start)? Do they then get less of a handicap on the stats?

My simple minded liberal arts education keeps telling me that we should just use all the stats because it's the only feasible way to do it. But I know there will be a Cat fan with a calculator who will come save the day.

After careful consideration, whats obvious is if a player gets dinged up during the game, regardless whether it is a hangnail, cramp...whether menstrual or other...or other injury, the affected player under no circumstances should return to the game because the potential gain in statistical advantage from him being out could not be overcome by any level of play he could achieve.

Additionally, any team who could somehow stack 5 or 6 of these minor injuries on a given day and replace all those players would be virtually unbeatable given the aggregate additional statistical edge.

This is very good work, Jodcon. Very soon, maybe in the next five years, the process will have been perfected such that we will simply use "should have been" final scores instead of actual final scores. There is a goal to not even play the games by 2030. We are already on our way now that we use adjusted and selective statistics.

2013 marked the year of the revolution, and it began in Bozeman. The revolution will be televised locally by Max Media. Does anyone know what channel that is in Great Falls?

 

[griz8791]

I was gonna start at page 1 but I figured reading the last few posts give me enough info to make an accurate assessment of this thread. Isn't that what we do with football stats? Who cares about the first 4 games. Lets just look at the last 2.

It's not that simple. Sheesh, get with the program. As best I can tell, if the first few games happen to produce favorable stats for MSU, you are free to use those games. You can also use unfavorable stats from UM's first few games. If, however, those first few games happen to produce even more favorable stats for UM, the games are off limits. Also, and obviously, any UM loss is fair game. That is the basic principle.

The rub comes with games in which a key player is out, or there is some other reason why a particular team "did not play up to its potential." Said games are off limits for MSU stats (because if [blank], then they would have won), but fair game for UM (because the other team caused the loss).

No word yet on whether we count games where a key player is hurt during the game. My proposal is that we should break it down into sub-quarters and sub-subquarters to determine the player's points (or yards/tackles/etc.) above replacement. Then, we can use that figure to somehow extrapolate the "should have been" final score (or yards/tackles/etc.)

Simply using the season totals is for quakers. This is the wave of the future.

Post of the year candidate here.

 

[jodcon]

What about if a key player on the other side is injured during the game, does that diminish the win by a certain percentage? The win should be discounted 1.666% for each minute the key player missed during that game, unless your team also had a key player missing, in which case only the difference in actual minutes missed will be added to or subtracted from the winning calculations using the aforementioned formula.

Very good question. I think we can still use the "should have been" final score formula. We will just have to add points to the other team.

If we have a key player missing on both teams, we have to determine the players' merit relative to each other by netting the relative "[stat] above replacement." We can also use this for partial injuries (like if McGillcutty is feeling only 85%, there should an adjustment.

What remains to be seen is what we use to determine the two injured players' "[stat] above replacement" for the relative comparison of same with one another. Do we use all the games, or just some? What if they play different positions and have different metrics by which to measure their relative merit? What is more important? A sack, or first down catch? What if the replacement does a better job than the starter (a good possibility at MSU where the third string should start)? Do they then get less of a handicap on the stats?

My simple minded liberal arts education keeps telling me that we should just use all the stats because it's the only feasible way to do it. But I know there will be a Cat fan with a calculator who will come save the day.

After careful consideration, whats obvious is if a player gets dinged up during the game, regardless whether it is a hangnail, cramp...whether menstrual or other...or other injury, the affected player under no circumstances should return to the game because the potential gain in statistical advantage from him being out could not be overcome by any level of play he could achieve.

Additionally, any team who could somehow stack 5 or 6 of these minor injuries on a given day and replace all those players would be virtually unbeatable given the aggregate additional statistical edge.

This is very good work, Jodcon. Very soon, maybe in the next five years, the process will have been perfected such that we will simply use "should have been" final scores instead of actual final scores. There is a goal to not even play the games by 2030. We are already on our way now that we use adjusted and selective statistics.

2013 marked the year of the revolution, and it began in Bozeman. The revolution will be televised locally by Max Media. Does anyone know what channel that is in Great Falls?

But do we use all "should have been" final scores or just selected "should have been" final scores, there's your question. :lol:

 

[CDAGRIZ]

Very good question. I think we can still use the "should have been" final score formula. We will just have to add points to the other team.

If we have a key player missing on both teams, we have to determine the players' merit relative to each other by netting the relative "[stat] above replacement." We can also use this for partial injuries (like if McGillcutty is feeling only 85%, there should an adjustment.

What remains to be seen is what we use to determine the two injured players' "[stat] above replacement" for the relative comparison of same with one another. Do we use all the games, or just some? What if they play different positions and have different metrics by which to measure their relative merit? What is more important? A sack, or first down catch? What if the replacement does a better job than the starter (a good possibility at MSU where the third string should start)? Do they then get less of a handicap on the stats?

My simple minded liberal arts education keeps telling me that we should just use all the stats because it's the only feasible way to do it. But I know there will be a Cat fan with a calculator who will come save the day.

After careful consideration, whats obvious is if a player gets dinged up during the game, regardless whether it is a hangnail, cramp...whether menstrual or other...or other injury, the affected player under no circumstances should return to the game because the potential gain in statistical advantage from him being out could not be overcome by any level of play he could achieve.

Additionally, any team who could somehow stack 5 or 6 of these minor injuries on a given day and replace all those players would be virtually unbeatable given the aggregate additional statistical edge.

This is very good work, Jodcon. Very soon, maybe in the next five years, the process will have been perfected such that we will simply use "should have been" final scores instead of actual final scores. There is a goal to not even play the games by 2030. We are already on our way now that we use adjusted and selective statistics.

2013 marked the year of the revolution, and it began in Bozeman. The revolution will be televised locally by Max Media. Does anyone know what channel that is in Great Falls?

But do we use all "should have been" final scores or just selected "should have been" final scores, there's your question. :lol:

Griz: it depends on the opponent.
Cats: it depends on the outcome.

 

[PlayerRep]

The way to avoid skewing the stats is get rid of the biggest outlier. Thus, UM would get rid of NAU from the stats, and MSU would also get rid of NAU. They were clearly both outliers.