UC Davis Aggies scouting report

[fencer24]

So, BW, how about a game analysis from UC Davis' perspective? Using your stats:
Passing yards per game Montana (327 for UCD vs 329 for UM)
Rushing yards per game Montana (107 for UCD vs 137 for UM)
Total offense Montana (434 for UCD vs 465 for UM)
Passing yards allowed per game UC Davis (209 for UCD vs 324 for UM)
Rushing yards allowed per game Montana (166 for UCD vs 123 for UM)
Total defense UC Davis (375 for UCD vs 447 for UM)

4 for Montana and 2 for UC Davis

Offense points scored Montana (27 for UCD vs 35.5 for UM)
Defense points allowed Montana (25.5 for UCD vs 24 for UM)
Turnover margin UC Davis – (+2 for UCD / +1 for Montana)
Fieldgoal % UC Davis (87% for UCD vs 67% for UM)
Punt Returns Montana (8.7 yards for UCD vs 26 yards for UM)
Kick Returns Montana (18.4 yards for UCD vs 25.8 yards for UM)
T.O.P. Montana (28:00 for UCD vs 30:58 for UM)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) Montana (82% UCD / 65% UM)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) Montana (59% UCD / 65% UM)
3rd down offense Montana – (34% for UCD / 52% for UM)
3rd down defense Montana – (44% allowed for UCD vs 29% allowed for UM)

It seems like Davis would be trying to stick with the pass against our defense. But we have been playing predominantly run teams all this time and leaving the secondary on islands. Will we use the same defense against a predominantly throwing team? What happens to Davis' scheme when we switch from man coverage to predominantly zone?
That is why I hope you could give an analysis of what Davis is going to do so we can see how the coaches change the scheme to deal with them.

 

[grizpsych]

:lol:

Best team in the country, winner of 7 of last 8 NC’s just escaped, AT HOME, 27-16 by virtue of two red zone picks and somehow we’re gonna blow them out at THEIR house?

I don’t think so...

And who has NDSU played this year? Maybe they are ranked first because of history?

 

[Jaredkuehn]

:lol:

Best team in the country, winner of 7 of last 8 NC’s just escaped, AT HOME, 27-16 by virtue of two red zone picks and somehow we’re gonna blow them out at THEIR house?

I don’t think so...

And who has NDSU played this year? Maybe they are ranked first because of history?

New coach this year and a freshman QB, right? I would agree that we don't know if UNDSU is the same dominant team they have been. At some point a coaching change is going to trip up their momentum (I know, we've heard that before) even if its just a little stumble.

I like the Griz in this one. I'm still not sold on Davis as a top 5 team. They went 5-6 in 2017, then came out of nowhere last year. I think their 2018 schedule was suspect, though. If you look a little deeper, they gave up 36 points to Northern Colorado, and needed overtime to beat Idaho State 44-37 in a home game. They gave up 59 points in their first loss to EWU.

I think the Davis defense is going to give up some points to this Griz offense. The question is whether or not the Griz defense gives up more points.

The way they lost last year gives the Griz some extra motivation. I think this years Griz team is playing with more confidence than last season and has something to prove.

 

[Htowngriz]

:lol:

Best team in the country, winner of 7 of last 8 NC’s just escaped, AT HOME, 27-16 by virtue of two red zone picks and somehow we’re gonna blow them out at THEIR house?

I don’t think so...

And who has NDSU played this year? Maybe they are ranked first because of history?

New coach this year and a freshman QB, right? I would agree that we don't know if UNDSU is the same dominant team they have been. At some point a coaching change is going to trip up their momentum (I know, we've heard that before) even if its just a little stumble.

I like the Griz in this one. I'm still not sold on Davis as a top 5 team. They went 5-6 in 2017, then came out of nowhere last year. I think their 2018 schedule was suspect, though. If you look a little deeper, they gave up 36 points to Northern Colorado, and needed overtime to beat Idaho State 44-37 in a home game. They gave up 59 points in their first loss to EWU.

I think the Davis defense is going to give up some points to this Griz offense. The question is whether or not the Griz defense gives up more points.

They way they lost last year gives the Griz some extra motivation. I think this years Griz team is playing with more confidence than last season and has something to prove.

Agreed on all points. Will also be interesting to see how the "Bison hangover" affects them.

 

[grizpsych]

:lol:

Best team in the country, winner of 7 of last 8 NC’s just escaped, AT HOME, 27-16 by virtue of two red zone picks and somehow we’re gonna blow them out at THEIR house?

I don’t think so...

And who has NDSU played this year? Maybe they are ranked first because of history?

New coach this year and a freshman QB, right? I would agree that we don't know if UNDSU is the same dominant team they have been. At some point a coaching change is going to trip up their momentum (I know, we've heard that before) even if its just a little stumble.

I like the Griz in this one. I'm still not sold on Davis as a top 5 team. They went 5-6 in 2017, then came out of nowhere last year. I think their 2018 schedule was suspect, though. If you look a little deeper, they gave up 36 points to Northern Colorado, and needed overtime to beat Idaho State 44-37 in a home game. They gave up 59 points in their first loss to EWU.

I think the Davis defense is going to give up some points to this Griz offense. The question is whether or not the Griz defense gives up more points.

They way they lost last year gives the Griz some extra motivation. I think this years Griz team is playing with more confidence than last season and has something to prove.

Agreed on all points. Will also be interesting to see how the "Bison hangover" affects them.

Yeah. I'm with you. I'm just really unsure of how distant the quality of teams are from the top to the bottom of this list. Working at Southeast Missouri State has allowed me to see some of these teams over the last two years. And, based on my limited expertise, I don't understand some of the ranking. Nor do I understand how some of these teams have beat others on the list. Overall, I feel that we are under ranked compared to what I have seen. No way should we be next to SEMO on this list. And, I'm not saying that SEMO does not deserve to be where they are.

 

[BWahlberg]

So, BW, how about a game analysis from UC Davis' perspective? Using your stats:
Passing yards per game Montana (327 for UCD vs 329 for UM)
Rushing yards per game Montana (107 for UCD vs 137 for UM)
Total offense Montana (434 for UCD vs 465 for UM)
Passing yards allowed per game UC Davis (209 for UCD vs 324 for UM)
Rushing yards allowed per game Montana (166 for UCD vs 123 for UM)
Total defense UC Davis (375 for UCD vs 447 for UM)

4 for Montana and 2 for UC Davis

Offense points scored Montana (27 for UCD vs 35.5 for UM)
Defense points allowed Montana (25.5 for UCD vs 24 for UM)
Turnover margin UC Davis – (+2 for UCD / +1 for Montana)
Fieldgoal % UC Davis (87% for UCD vs 67% for UM)
Punt Returns Montana (8.7 yards for UCD vs 26 yards for UM)
Kick Returns Montana (18.4 yards for UCD vs 25.8 yards for UM)
T.O.P. Montana (28:00 for UCD vs 30:58 for UM)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) Montana (82% UCD / 65% UM)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) Montana (59% UCD / 65% UM)
3rd down offense Montana – (34% for UCD / 52% for UM)
3rd down defense Montana – (44% allowed for UCD vs 29% allowed for UM)

It seems like Davis would be trying to stick with the pass against our defense. But we have been playing predominantly run teams all this time and leaving the secondary on islands. Will we use the same defense against a predominantly throwing team? What happens to Davis' scheme when we switch from man coverage to predominantly zone?
That is why I hope you could give an analysis of what Davis is going to do so we can see how the coaches change the scheme to deal with them.

Well if I'm Davis I'm going to really pick apart the success UNA had in the 1st half against us, some of the things Oregon did, and a lot of Monmouth's film. Most success will come through the air but keeping the defense honest is a must. That might not be a ton of handoffs to Gilliam but also using him a lot in the shorter passing game (like they do already). UCD has 3 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 RB they primarily rely on (11 personnel - just like us) but they're running the ball about 15% less per game than us.

My guess for the Griz would be to somewhat revert back to what was done against USD or the 2nd half of UNA. One of course always have to wonder if some of the Monmouth game was Bobby & company planning ahead and putting some things on tape to trick UCD.

My concern is that the Grizzly passing defense has gone:

USD: 246
UNA: 345
OU: 313
MU: 393

It's not improving and now we're facing one of the two best passing attacks we'll see from here on out.

 

[tweedahl]

It is a bit concerning, but we have faced some good QB's. All 3 FCS in top 20 for passing yards and OU in top 15 FBS.

Passing yards:
USD #8 FCS - Simmons
NA #15 FCS - Lopez
OU #13 FBS - Herbert
MU #18 FCS - Bahar

 

[Silenoz]

:lol:

Best team in the country, winner of 7 of last 8 NC’s just escaped, AT HOME, 27-16 by virtue of two red zone picks and somehow we’re gonna blow them out at THEIR house?

I don’t think so...

Dude, did you forget that ass-kicking we laid on them last ye-...oh, right...

 

[Proud Griz Man]

revisiting the 2018 UC-Davis post-game presser.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EE-0km8IjQ8

Coach Hawkins quotes the great Bud Wilkinson "great teams have tendencies."

 

[MTGRZ]

UC has the lowest TOP in the conference if I'm not mistaken. Time of possession will be a part of a Griz win, but so will capitalizing in the red zone. Defensively the Griz need to keep UCD in front of them and limit the big plays. Can't wait to see the fight in this team. Go Griz!

 

[Colter_Nuanez56]

https://twitter.com/SkylineSportsMT/status/1176262774248202241

 

[Diesel]

revisiting the 2018 UC-Davis post-game presser.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EE-0km8IjQ8

Coach Hawkins quotes the great Bud Wilkinson "great teams have tendencies."

Painful revisit, 46 points in 18 minutes turnover on downs double pass missed FGs fumble 3 INTs...painful
This year no Doss, UM WRs are better, UM D is giving up too many passing yards, but not giving up the 3rd and forever plays and playing better in red zone, UM Oline is playing more players and are playing better, UM RBs are a better unit.
Should be UM 31-UCD 27...turnovers, turnovers, turnovers we have to win the turnover battle and I like our chances. Sandry and Calhoun are due for INT. Look for more // on UCD Dline jerseys (// it will look almost like quotation marks, but it is the lower portion of 77) this phenomenon happens to pancaked defenders as the big guy does snow angels on them.

 

[MTGRZ]

https://twitter.com/SkylineSportsMT/status/1176262774248202241

Thanks for the work boys; good listen. You were spot-on with Mitch Roberts too. Kid looks like the real deal. Love the coverage, just wish the Griz would give you more access!

 

[fencer24]

Well if I'm Davis I'm going to really pick apart the success UNA had in the 1st half against us, some of the things Oregon did, and a lot of Monmouth's film. Most success will come through the air but keeping the defense honest is a must. That might not be a ton of handoffs to Gilliam but also using him a lot in the shorter passing game (like they do already). UCD has 3 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 RB they primarily rely on (11 personnel - just like us) but they're running the ball about 15% less per game than us.

My guess for the Griz would be to somewhat revert back to what was done against USD or the 2nd half of UNA. One of course always have to wonder if some of the Monmouth game was Bobby & company planning ahead and putting some things on tape to trick UCD.

My concern is that the Grizzly passing defense has gone:

USD: 246
UNA: 345
OU: 313
MU: 393

It's not improving and now we're facing one of the two best passing attacks we'll see from here on out.

I was wondering about that too. The play calling didn't seem as inspired as I would have expected. Hope I am right, and the coaching staff is already planning for what UCD would be expecting having reviewed the tape.

 

[jodcon]

Davis favored by 7 at this point

 

[dupuyer griz]

I’m not on board with the defense. The yards given up is unacceptable to me. The argument is that we are making teams one dimensional. If we can shut down the pass of Davis, we will kill them and I will be on board with the defense.

 

[AZGrizFan]

:lol:

Best team in the country, winner of 7 of last 8 NC’s just escaped, AT HOME, 27-16 by virtue of two red zone picks and somehow we’re gonna blow them out at THEIR house?

I don’t think so...

Dude, did you forget that ass-kicking we laid on them last ye-...oh, right...

:lol: :lol:

 

[Htowngriz]

I’m not on board with the defense. The yards given up is unacceptable to me. The argument is that we are making teams one dimensional. If we can shut down the pass of Davis, we will kill them and I will be on board with the defense.

I understand the concern, but 17, 16, 35 (against a top 25 FBS), and 27 points allowed through the first 4 games isn't terrible. Especially with an offense as potent as we have.

 

[EverettGriz]

If we can't run it, we can't win.

If we can't pressure Maier better than we did Monmouth's QB last week, we can't win.

If we turn it over, we can't win.


My fear is that that's one too many Ifs....

 

[AZGrizFan]

I’m not on board with the defense. The yards given up is unacceptable to me. The argument is that we are making teams one dimensional. If we can shut down the pass of Davis, we will kill them and I will be on board with the defense.

I understand the concern, but 17, 16, 35 (against a top 25 FBS), and 27 points allowed through the first 4 games isn't terrible. Especially with an offense as potent as we have.

Do I expect we’ll give up 36 in the 4th quarter again? No...I think it’ll be spread out more evenly.