The Griz are back on the road and off to face a winless UC Davis team that is hungry for a first win. Davis’s record may be crap but they’ve played well in all 4 of their games and won’t be some easy pushover for the Griz. This road game is a must for our offense to continue to improve and for the team as a whole to execute better while not in the friendly confines of Washington Grizzly Stadium.
That said, let’s take a look at UC Davis;
UC Davis Aggies: 0-4
17-31 loss at Nevada: Davis controlled the clock (35:00 TOP) but just couldn’t cash in on meaningful drives. They opened with a strong drive but turned it over on downs, they had two drives go for about 40 yards but ended in punts, they had another drive go 16 plays and 66 yards but only could get 3 points. Meanwhile Nevada scored 21 points on their first 3 possessions and kind of went into cruise control after that. Davis scored a late TD to make it 24-10 with 6:00 left in the game, Nevada scored 1 minute later to make it 31-10 and put the game to rest. Davis gave up about 230 on the ground in this game. Nevada is now 2-2.
17-27 loss vs South Dakota: USD jumped out 20-3 in the game and that was the score at the half. UCD’s offense was horrid that first half, one good drive and the rest were either 3 and outs or interceptions (2 in the 1st half, a 3rd in the 2nd half). In the 3rd quarter though the tables turned, UCD rattled off 14 unanswered points to make it 20-17. After the 2nd UCD touchdown USD was able to answer back with a score of their own – making it 27-17, that was all in the 3rd quarter. UCD’s 4th quarter wasn’t pretty; a 3 and out, a lost fumble on the next possession, and a turnover on downs on their final possession. USD had a solid game on the ground, 240 rushing, while Davis had most of their yards in the passing game, 240 as well.
27-47 loss at Hawai’i: Davis hung around in the game, it was 13-10 Hawai’I at the half, but as the game wore on Hawai’I was able to pull away – extending their lead as far as 47-17. Davis scored the final 10 points of the game to make it look a little more respectable. The kind of wild thing about this game is the TOP. David had the ball for almost 40:00! Hawai’i only had 4 possessions in the first half, and scored 1 TD and kicked 2 fieldgoals off those possessions. UH ran for about 200 and passed for about 270. David got their usual 240 yards passing.
24-31 loss at North Dakota: Stop me if you’ve heard this before, Davis’s opponent got out to a bit of a comfy lead, Davis closed the gap late but couldn’t do enough to put themselves in a position to win. UND lead 28-10 and 31-17 in the 2nd half. Davis got to 31-21 with 6 minutes to go in the game but their porous rush defense couldn’t stop UND and they never got the ball back. UND ran for 240 (common number it seems) and UCD passed for 216 and rushed for just 67 yards. UND only had 58 passing yards on 8-19 passing and 1 INT.
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General Stats
Looking at yardage per game, here’s who holds the advantage:
Passing yards Montana (337.5 ypg vs 233.5 ypg)
Rushing yards Montana (108.3 ypg vs 96.3 ypg)
Total Offense Montana (445 ypg vs 330 ypg)
Pass defense UC Davis (156 ypg allowed vs 183 ypg allowed)
Rush defense Montana (179 ypg allowed vs 226 ypg allowed)
Total defense Montana 362 ypg allowed vs 384 ypg allowed)
Advantage Montana 5 to 1
Other Stats worthy of mention:
Offense Points Scored Montana (25.2 ppg vs 21.2 ppg)
Defense points Allowed Montana (25 ppg allowed vs 34 ppg allowed)
Turnover margin UC Davis (-2 for Davis vs -4 for Montana)
Fieldgoal % UC Davis (100% made (5 of 5) vs 82% made (9 of 11))
Punt returns UC Davis (14 ypr for Davis, 8.6 ypr for UM)
Kick returns UC Davis (23.3 ypr vs 18.6 ypr)
T.O.P. UC Davis (34:16 for Davis vs 24:52 for Montana)
Red Zone Defense (touchdowns) Montana (63% of the time allowed TDs vs 78% for Davis)
Red Zone Offense (touchdowns) UC Davis (66% of the time scored TDs vs 32% for the Griz)
3rd down offense UC Davis (converts 44% while UM converts 30%)
3rd down defense Montana (allows 32% while Davis allows 39%
Advantage UC Davis 7 to 4
A final thought on numbers:
Stats are silly sometimes, I’ll be the first to admit. While Davis is better in the red zone at scoring TDs, consider this, they’ve been in the RZ 11 times this season, scoring 7 TDs. Montana, on the other hand has been in the RZ 38 times and has scored 12 TDs. So in one regard the Griz have actually scored more red zone TDs than Davis has even been in the RZ. Sometimes a broader picture is needed. Additionally Davis is 5-5 kicking, their longest made is 40 yards, the rest are 26, 27, 21, and 19 yards. Montana though…. Pretty good inside the 30 yard range – hasn’t made one beyond 30 yards yet, all 9 are from 27 yards or closer.
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Players to watch:
#13 Ben Scott – QB: Scott is a tall 6-3 QB who has started all 4 games for Davis. He’s averaging about 222 yards per game, has 8 TDs to 4 INTs. He’s completing passes at about a rate of 65%. He’s a bit of a running threat but that’s not his primary game.
#10 Manusamoa Luuga – RB: Luuga’s a guy used all over the field. He’s 5-10 and 195 pounds, he’s the leading rusher averaging about 50 yards per game and has 1 rushing TD this season. He also leads the team in receptions, he’s got 18 catches for just 100 yards, a 25 yard per game average. The Griz defense will have to keep an eye on him on all passing plays.
#9 Chris Martin – WR: Davis’s main threat in the passing game. He’s got 335 receiving yards this year (that’s more than Ellis Henderson), and has caught 4 of the 7 total TD passes UCD has thrown this year. He averages about 85 yards per game.
#80 Ramon Vargas – WR: A tall 6-3 guy Vargas is 3rd on the team in receptions and 2nd in yards, he’s got 136 yards and 1 TD this season.
#53 Russell Weeder – LB: Weeder is tied with a few for the most tackles on the team with 17. He’s the leading returning tackler from 2014 (5th best with 46 on the year). Last year he lead Davis with 2 interceptions, none this year though.
#21 Darryl Graham – DB: Also with 17 tackles this season Graham has an interception this season as well.
#28 Ryan Parentau – S: A 6-2 true freshman safety, he’s got 14 tackles, 1 forced fumble, and 1 fumble recovery this season.
#55 Kyle DeVaughn – DT: A 5-11, 285 pound tackle he’s got a team leading 2 sacks, 2 TFLs, and 14 tackles.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
1. Running the ball. Davis’s rush defense statistically hasn’t been good. They lost most of their best players to graduation last season on defense and teams have had good success running against them. While the Grizzly offense is a pass-first system we saw against NAU how a steady running game helped our offense move the ball.
2. Don’t get crushed in TOP. This game is set up to suggest that Davis’s slow and drawn out offense that just chips away could keep this game close – especially if the Grizzly offense continues to sputter in the red zone. I don’t forsee the Griz “winning” the TOP battle nor do I think that’s a must, but having the ball 25:00 or more would help. It’ll allow the Griz have more drives and hopefully put the game away.
3. 3 Red Zone touchdowns (or more). This may sound silly but the Griz have not scored 3 TDs in the redzone in a single game this season yet. As part of the progression towards improvement I’d like to see the Griz offense get into the red zone a lot and not just kick fieldgoals but come away with touchdowns!
4. Few to no big plays allowed on defense (especially in the passing game). UCD Davis has pretty good receiver and we saw NAU’s good WR get loose a bit on our defense last week. In a mid week write up I pointed out that the pass defense especially has given up a ton of yards and scores on big plays. If we the Griz want to improve to 1-1 on the road they cannot allow Davis to burn them time and time again through the air.
5. Win on 3rd down – on both sides of the ball. The Grizzly offense has not been so hot on 3rd down, they’ll need to improve for this game. Davis is actually fairly proficient themselves – which is why they have such strong average TOP. The Grizzly offense needs to convert more than 30% and the Grizzly defense is going to be tested to lock things up. If the offense can improve and the defense can do their thing the Griz will be looking good.
6. Keep improving on special teams. Davis has a good punt returner and strong kickoff return unit. We’ve seen the Grizzly ST block two punts and force a fumble in the last two weeks – now they’re going to be tested with containing a decent return threat.
7. Win the turnover margin. Davis doesn’t make too many mistakes, fortunately with Chalich at the helm we’ve not seen too many from the Griz either. Davis’s offense will be based around ball control and bleeding the clock, going positive in the turnover margin will steal some of that opportunity away from the Aggies.
8. Attack their inexperience. This appears to be a very young defense for Davis. The running game and our experienced WRs could have opportunities for some big plays of their own. Attack their inexperience and put some points on the board because of it.
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On paper this looks like an easy Griz win – but if the Griz come into this game unfocused and expecting a cake walk they could get caught by surprise. Davis loves to hang around and make a late rally. If the Grizzlies wind up having to kick a lot of fieldgoals rather than score TDs, give up a few big plays, and only have 22:00 of TOP… this will be anyone’s game in the 4th quarter. That’s what Davis will be aiming for.
I believe though the Griz are turning this and building off last week’s win and learning from their two losses. In what I hope is a great confidence builder for the Griz I’ll say it’s a comfy win 38-14. I’ll bet a lot of the team will have family in attendance as a lot of our west coast guys love playing these away games in Cali because of the shorter travel for so many of their families. It should be a great afternoon for football – as long as they’re properly focused on improvement and execution this should be a solid Griz win.
GO GRIZ!
That said, let’s take a look at UC Davis;
UC Davis Aggies: 0-4
17-31 loss at Nevada: Davis controlled the clock (35:00 TOP) but just couldn’t cash in on meaningful drives. They opened with a strong drive but turned it over on downs, they had two drives go for about 40 yards but ended in punts, they had another drive go 16 plays and 66 yards but only could get 3 points. Meanwhile Nevada scored 21 points on their first 3 possessions and kind of went into cruise control after that. Davis scored a late TD to make it 24-10 with 6:00 left in the game, Nevada scored 1 minute later to make it 31-10 and put the game to rest. Davis gave up about 230 on the ground in this game. Nevada is now 2-2.
17-27 loss vs South Dakota: USD jumped out 20-3 in the game and that was the score at the half. UCD’s offense was horrid that first half, one good drive and the rest were either 3 and outs or interceptions (2 in the 1st half, a 3rd in the 2nd half). In the 3rd quarter though the tables turned, UCD rattled off 14 unanswered points to make it 20-17. After the 2nd UCD touchdown USD was able to answer back with a score of their own – making it 27-17, that was all in the 3rd quarter. UCD’s 4th quarter wasn’t pretty; a 3 and out, a lost fumble on the next possession, and a turnover on downs on their final possession. USD had a solid game on the ground, 240 rushing, while Davis had most of their yards in the passing game, 240 as well.
27-47 loss at Hawai’i: Davis hung around in the game, it was 13-10 Hawai’I at the half, but as the game wore on Hawai’I was able to pull away – extending their lead as far as 47-17. Davis scored the final 10 points of the game to make it look a little more respectable. The kind of wild thing about this game is the TOP. David had the ball for almost 40:00! Hawai’i only had 4 possessions in the first half, and scored 1 TD and kicked 2 fieldgoals off those possessions. UH ran for about 200 and passed for about 270. David got their usual 240 yards passing.
24-31 loss at North Dakota: Stop me if you’ve heard this before, Davis’s opponent got out to a bit of a comfy lead, Davis closed the gap late but couldn’t do enough to put themselves in a position to win. UND lead 28-10 and 31-17 in the 2nd half. Davis got to 31-21 with 6 minutes to go in the game but their porous rush defense couldn’t stop UND and they never got the ball back. UND ran for 240 (common number it seems) and UCD passed for 216 and rushed for just 67 yards. UND only had 58 passing yards on 8-19 passing and 1 INT.
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General Stats
Looking at yardage per game, here’s who holds the advantage:
Passing yards Montana (337.5 ypg vs 233.5 ypg)
Rushing yards Montana (108.3 ypg vs 96.3 ypg)
Total Offense Montana (445 ypg vs 330 ypg)
Pass defense UC Davis (156 ypg allowed vs 183 ypg allowed)
Rush defense Montana (179 ypg allowed vs 226 ypg allowed)
Total defense Montana 362 ypg allowed vs 384 ypg allowed)
Advantage Montana 5 to 1
Other Stats worthy of mention:
Offense Points Scored Montana (25.2 ppg vs 21.2 ppg)
Defense points Allowed Montana (25 ppg allowed vs 34 ppg allowed)
Turnover margin UC Davis (-2 for Davis vs -4 for Montana)
Fieldgoal % UC Davis (100% made (5 of 5) vs 82% made (9 of 11))
Punt returns UC Davis (14 ypr for Davis, 8.6 ypr for UM)
Kick returns UC Davis (23.3 ypr vs 18.6 ypr)
T.O.P. UC Davis (34:16 for Davis vs 24:52 for Montana)
Red Zone Defense (touchdowns) Montana (63% of the time allowed TDs vs 78% for Davis)
Red Zone Offense (touchdowns) UC Davis (66% of the time scored TDs vs 32% for the Griz)
3rd down offense UC Davis (converts 44% while UM converts 30%)
3rd down defense Montana (allows 32% while Davis allows 39%
Advantage UC Davis 7 to 4
A final thought on numbers:
Stats are silly sometimes, I’ll be the first to admit. While Davis is better in the red zone at scoring TDs, consider this, they’ve been in the RZ 11 times this season, scoring 7 TDs. Montana, on the other hand has been in the RZ 38 times and has scored 12 TDs. So in one regard the Griz have actually scored more red zone TDs than Davis has even been in the RZ. Sometimes a broader picture is needed. Additionally Davis is 5-5 kicking, their longest made is 40 yards, the rest are 26, 27, 21, and 19 yards. Montana though…. Pretty good inside the 30 yard range – hasn’t made one beyond 30 yards yet, all 9 are from 27 yards or closer.
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Players to watch:
#13 Ben Scott – QB: Scott is a tall 6-3 QB who has started all 4 games for Davis. He’s averaging about 222 yards per game, has 8 TDs to 4 INTs. He’s completing passes at about a rate of 65%. He’s a bit of a running threat but that’s not his primary game.
#10 Manusamoa Luuga – RB: Luuga’s a guy used all over the field. He’s 5-10 and 195 pounds, he’s the leading rusher averaging about 50 yards per game and has 1 rushing TD this season. He also leads the team in receptions, he’s got 18 catches for just 100 yards, a 25 yard per game average. The Griz defense will have to keep an eye on him on all passing plays.
#9 Chris Martin – WR: Davis’s main threat in the passing game. He’s got 335 receiving yards this year (that’s more than Ellis Henderson), and has caught 4 of the 7 total TD passes UCD has thrown this year. He averages about 85 yards per game.
#80 Ramon Vargas – WR: A tall 6-3 guy Vargas is 3rd on the team in receptions and 2nd in yards, he’s got 136 yards and 1 TD this season.
#53 Russell Weeder – LB: Weeder is tied with a few for the most tackles on the team with 17. He’s the leading returning tackler from 2014 (5th best with 46 on the year). Last year he lead Davis with 2 interceptions, none this year though.
#21 Darryl Graham – DB: Also with 17 tackles this season Graham has an interception this season as well.
#28 Ryan Parentau – S: A 6-2 true freshman safety, he’s got 14 tackles, 1 forced fumble, and 1 fumble recovery this season.
#55 Kyle DeVaughn – DT: A 5-11, 285 pound tackle he’s got a team leading 2 sacks, 2 TFLs, and 14 tackles.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
1. Running the ball. Davis’s rush defense statistically hasn’t been good. They lost most of their best players to graduation last season on defense and teams have had good success running against them. While the Grizzly offense is a pass-first system we saw against NAU how a steady running game helped our offense move the ball.
2. Don’t get crushed in TOP. This game is set up to suggest that Davis’s slow and drawn out offense that just chips away could keep this game close – especially if the Grizzly offense continues to sputter in the red zone. I don’t forsee the Griz “winning” the TOP battle nor do I think that’s a must, but having the ball 25:00 or more would help. It’ll allow the Griz have more drives and hopefully put the game away.
3. 3 Red Zone touchdowns (or more). This may sound silly but the Griz have not scored 3 TDs in the redzone in a single game this season yet. As part of the progression towards improvement I’d like to see the Griz offense get into the red zone a lot and not just kick fieldgoals but come away with touchdowns!
4. Few to no big plays allowed on defense (especially in the passing game). UCD Davis has pretty good receiver and we saw NAU’s good WR get loose a bit on our defense last week. In a mid week write up I pointed out that the pass defense especially has given up a ton of yards and scores on big plays. If we the Griz want to improve to 1-1 on the road they cannot allow Davis to burn them time and time again through the air.
5. Win on 3rd down – on both sides of the ball. The Grizzly offense has not been so hot on 3rd down, they’ll need to improve for this game. Davis is actually fairly proficient themselves – which is why they have such strong average TOP. The Grizzly offense needs to convert more than 30% and the Grizzly defense is going to be tested to lock things up. If the offense can improve and the defense can do their thing the Griz will be looking good.
6. Keep improving on special teams. Davis has a good punt returner and strong kickoff return unit. We’ve seen the Grizzly ST block two punts and force a fumble in the last two weeks – now they’re going to be tested with containing a decent return threat.
7. Win the turnover margin. Davis doesn’t make too many mistakes, fortunately with Chalich at the helm we’ve not seen too many from the Griz either. Davis’s offense will be based around ball control and bleeding the clock, going positive in the turnover margin will steal some of that opportunity away from the Aggies.
8. Attack their inexperience. This appears to be a very young defense for Davis. The running game and our experienced WRs could have opportunities for some big plays of their own. Attack their inexperience and put some points on the board because of it.
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On paper this looks like an easy Griz win – but if the Griz come into this game unfocused and expecting a cake walk they could get caught by surprise. Davis loves to hang around and make a late rally. If the Grizzlies wind up having to kick a lot of fieldgoals rather than score TDs, give up a few big plays, and only have 22:00 of TOP… this will be anyone’s game in the 4th quarter. That’s what Davis will be aiming for.
I believe though the Griz are turning this and building off last week’s win and learning from their two losses. In what I hope is a great confidence builder for the Griz I’ll say it’s a comfy win 38-14. I’ll bet a lot of the team will have family in attendance as a lot of our west coast guys love playing these away games in Cali because of the shorter travel for so many of their families. It should be a great afternoon for football – as long as they’re properly focused on improvement and execution this should be a solid Griz win.
GO GRIZ!
