Well ladies and gents, I’ve got to apologize, normally I put 3-4 hours into researching and typing up these reports but this week I was on a family trip through Wednesday and I’ve been playing catchup ever sense. Work has kept me from putting a lot of my usual numbers together and for this report I’m going to bypass the charts and graphs.
This week a well-rested Griz team faces a UC Davis team coming off a major beatdown handed to them by the Bobcats.
UC Davis Aggies: record 1-5
45-0 loss to Stanford: It was over quickly for UCD, as expected. Just 115 total yards for the Aggies and Stanford scored 38 of its 45 points by the half. Stanford is mostly known for a power-running game but in this one they passed for 312 yards.
52-17 win vs Fort Lewis: A slow start for UCD, they got rolling in the 2nd quarter. It was a very balanced game for the Aggies, 227 rushing and 231 passing, however they ran the ball at a 2:1 ratio over passing, their yards per completion were pretty impressive, 16.5 yards. Fort Lewis did put up about 330 yards and 200 of that was through the air, however they also tossed 3 picks.
49-21 loss vs Colorado State: Kind of an interesting game in the fact that UCD kept it within 2-3 scores for a while, until CSU opened it up in the 4th quarter. However UCD couldn’t do much to keep CSU from moving the ball. CSU only punted twice, missed a fieldgoal, and had a turnover on downs at the UCD 17 yard line. CSU put up 676 total yards of offense including 452 passing yards.
37-14 loss vs Eastern Washington: At the half this was looking like a trap game for EWU. The Eagles were clinging to a 9-7 lead. Both teams only had 3 possessions each in the whole first half – all three being long and drawn out drives. In the 2nd half that changed – EWU had 9 2nd half possessions and UCD had 8. EWU rapidly opened up a 30-7 lead in the 3rd quarter – as the quarter ended UCD hit a 70 yard TD play to make it 30-14. EWU replied with a TD early in the 4th and from there they just couldn’t get rolling, losing a fumble, throwing an interception right after forcing a turnover on downs, and then losing the ball on downs after forcing an EWU fumble. UCD had just 260 yards of offense to EWU’s 475.
23-14 loss to Portland State: In the first half this was looking like PSU was going to run all over UCD. It was a 17-0 score in favor of PSU. Davis had just about 55 yards of total offense and one first down the whole half. In the 2nd half UCD opened by intercepting a pass and then scoring shortly after that. Late in the 3rd UCD added another TD to make it 17-14 and it was looking like we had a ballgame going here. In the 4th though UCD slipped back into their first half woes. 3 possessions, no first downs, and about 30 yards of total offense. Meanwhile PSU tacked on two fieldgoals to put the game out of reach. PSU ran for about 250 and passed for 200 while UCD was held to just 44 total rushing yards and just under 196 passing yards.
77-37 loss to Montana State: MSU was taking kneel downs in the UCD red zone with 3-4 minutes left in the game. True to some of MSU’s other games it seems like their defense was either on or it was off. MSU and UCD exchanged some scores at the end of the 1st qtr and the Bobcats had a 14-10 lead. In the 2nd quarter though MSU rattles off 21 unanswered points to get a 35-10 lead and it’s looking fairly safe for them. Davis wasn’t shut out on offense though, they wound up missing a fieldgoal and having a turnover on downs on the MSU 10. In the 2nd half Davis’s offense started finding the endzone again. Davis scored 28 points in the 3rd quarter and into the early 4th quarter with 3 of the 4 drives taking about 2:30 of clock time and another taking just over 1 minute. The problem was their defense couldn’t do a thing and MSU answered every Davis TD with a TD of their own, and usually in a matter of just a few plays. Once MSU grabbed a pick and scored quickly again it was clear that Davis was not going to mount a comeback. MSU had 737 yards of offense 331 passing and 406 rushing, meanwhile Davis had 610 total yards of offense with 231 on the ground and 379 in the air.
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General Stats:
- Davis is scoring on average 23 points per game and allowing a league worst 41.3 points per game. Meanwhile the Grizzlies are scoring 25.7 points per game and allowing a league best 16.8 points per game on defense.
- Davis is averaging just about 138 rushing yards and 206 passing yards per game for a total of about 344 yards per game. Compare that to the Grizzly defense which is allowing 147 rushing yards per game and 176 passing yards per game for a total of 323 yards per game allowed.
- Davis’s defense on the other hand is allowing 206 rushing yards and 315 passing yards per game for an average of 521 yards per game allowed. Compare that to the Grizzly offense which is averaging 148 rushing per game and 182 passing per game for a total of 330 yards per game.
- Davis is +1 in turnovers, they’ve thrown 4 interceptions and lost 4 fumbles. Their defense has forced 6 interceptions and grabbed 3 fumbles. The Griz are +7, largely thanks to forcing fumbles. The Griz have tossed 3 picks and lost just 1 fumble. On defense they’ve forced 3 interceptions and grabbed 6 fumbles.
- In the red zone, UCD is scoring TDs almost 70% of the time, while the Grizzly defense is allowing TDs only 29% of the time. Meanwhile the Grizzly offense is scoring TDs about 60% of the time while UCD is allowing TDs 55% of the time.
- Looking at their per quarter scores the Aggies improve after the half, the issue is in many games their defense has given up so much by that point it doesn’t matter much. The Davis offense opens slow but warms up, while their defense seems to wilt as each half goes on, allowing 72 points in the 2nd qtr this season total and 69 points total in the 4th qtr this season.
- UCD converts 3rd downs at a rate of 29% while the Grizzly defense allows conversions at a rate of 37%. The Grizzly offense converts 3rd downs 36% of the time while UCD’s defense allows 3rd down conversions 49% of the time… ouch.
- UCD has not given up many sacks, only 9 this year, while the Griz have 21 team sacks so far.
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Players to watch
#41 Gabe Manzanares, RB – the 5-9, 195 pound senior has missed a few games this season and was slow getting going but he put up almost 150 rushing yards against MSU, he was also the 2nd leading receiver (receptions) in that game too. Manzanares was UCD’s main dude last season and if he’s rolling again he’ll be the centerpiece of the UCD offense.
#13 Ben Scott, QB – I’m not sure if Scott has taken over starting because of injury or ineffectiveness by the prior starter, London Lacy. Scott had a great game against MSU, 380 passing yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT. Lacy before him had 6 TDs and 3 INTs over the span of 5 games. Scott is a tall QB at 6-3 and 200 pounds. The stats suggest he’s a bit of a scrambler too.
#83 Keelan Doss, WR – Doss is a freshman WR that is another tall guy at 6-3. He’s tied for the team lead with 16 catches and has the most receiving yards with 257. He’s got 2 TDs this season and has a big 16.1 ypc average.
#82 Corey Galdino, WR – Yet ANOTHER tall WR, Galdino is 6-4, he’s also got 16 catches and has 209 yards this season. He leads the team with 4 TDs.
#80 Ramon Vargas, WR – The hits keep on coming, a 6-3 WR, Vargas has 194 yards, but he’s missed most of the season with injury. His big bust-out game was against MSU where he had 141 yards receiving. Watch out for this guy.
#20 Colton Silveria, RB – The backup RB that got plenty of reps while Manzanares worked his way back. Silveria actually still leads the team in carries and yards (301) he’s also got 2 TDs this season. He’s a bruiser of a back at 220 pounds.
#44 Zach Jones, DB – The leading healthy tackler now that one of UCD’s 3 senior leaders on defense (Steven Pitts) is out with an injury. Jones has 31 tackles, 1 INT, and 2 pass breakups.
#21 Darryl Graham, DB – Graham has 21 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 1 int, and 1 fumble recovery. He’s 3rd on the team in tackles but has the 2nd most solo tackles behind Jones.
#94 Marques Barron, DE – a 6-2, 252 pound D-end, he’s tied for the team lead in sacks with 2 (#90 Zak Pettit has 2 as well). Barron has 19 total tackles, 2.5 TFLs, and 2 forced fumbles.
#19 Shamawn Wright, CB – One of the starting corners, Wright has 15 tackles and 1 INT. But that’s not his main forte. He’s also their main kick returner and one of the better ones in the Big Sky. He averages about 25 yards per return and has 1 return for a touchdown this season.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
1. Get the offense going. We’re a rested squad now facing one of the worst defenses in the Big Sky, at home. If there was ever a game to get the offense going this is the one. Sean Haynes is presumably returning as is Mike Ralston – that’ll help in a few key areas both passing and running the ball.
2. Rattle Scott. A new QB coming into a hostile environment. He hasn’t been sacked yet this season but put up some good numbers last week. Pressure the guy, have Wags and Holmes get after him early and often. Keep an eye on him to scramble a bit too. Force him into rushed throws, because if he has time he’s got a trio of tall WRs to connect with.
3. Win in the red zone. UCD’s tall WRs concern me, our pass defense has not been tested with a group like this. Our stellar RZ defense will be put to test if they get in there a lot. The Grizzly D would be well suited to keep the Davis offense under wraps. On the other side of the ball when the Griz get into the RZ we’ve got to put TDs up on the board. (Rumor alert – we may be using a different kicker tomorrow due to injury).
4. Get JJ in space and run more hurry-up. Looking at the Grizzlies stats they really aren’t the power team that we see the coaches wanting them to be. This team it’s WRs, RBs, TEs, and a mobile QB are better suited to move quickly against a defense that’s proven it’s not that great with quick systems.
5. Don’t assume a 3-4 score lead is safe. UCD has seen its offense come to life a bit and had another recent game where they came back after being down 3 scores to put a scare into PSU. We’ve seen this team go to cruise control once the lead is at 21+ points, against this team with an offense finding its stride I’d rather see the Griz keep a bigger lead. We found out against a pretty bad offense in UND that not even a 15 point lead is very safe for long – let’s avoid that this week.
6. Hopefully get meaningful reps for Simis and Gustafson. Yes I know it’s VERY presumptive to assume the Griz will blow this game out, but I’m a fan and it’s ok for me to make that prediction. If the Griz are holding a large lead well into the 3rd or into the 4th quarter let’s get Gus and Simis some reps. And I’m not saying I want them to just hand the ball off 3 times either.
7. Don’t give up big yards on special teams. UCD could make the Griz pay if they get sloppy especially on kick coverage. Don’t make that mistake with a dangerous returner fielding tomorrow’s kicks.
8. Win the turnover battle. The Griz are going to have some opportunities to force a few turnovers, take advantage of that. It seems that some of UCD’s losses they had rallies get stunted by costly turnovers at the wrong moment.
9. Protect JJ – UND probably gave UCD a wide variety of ideas of how to attack our passing game by blitzing and disrupting JJ (or Shay). With Ralston back that’ll help, also have Canada out there to help pass protect.
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Tomorrow I am seeing a Grizzly win but I think it’s going to be a close game for quite some time for a few reasons. The first reason being that our offense hasn’t shown much consistency this year and there is plenty of game film that UCD will use to attack our O-line. That could lead to a slow go of it. Secondly I think UCD’s offense has some renewed confidence with their new QB and are going to come out firing a bit, which is something our pass defense hasn’t seen much. Additionally, a lot of times coming off a bye week I’ve seen Griz teams get a slow start. I could see a 21-10 type of halftime score in favor of the Griz, with the Griz finding some 3rd quarter challenges. I’ll say that the final is somewhere around 35-17 or so.
GO GRIZ!
This week a well-rested Griz team faces a UC Davis team coming off a major beatdown handed to them by the Bobcats.
UC Davis Aggies: record 1-5
45-0 loss to Stanford: It was over quickly for UCD, as expected. Just 115 total yards for the Aggies and Stanford scored 38 of its 45 points by the half. Stanford is mostly known for a power-running game but in this one they passed for 312 yards.
52-17 win vs Fort Lewis: A slow start for UCD, they got rolling in the 2nd quarter. It was a very balanced game for the Aggies, 227 rushing and 231 passing, however they ran the ball at a 2:1 ratio over passing, their yards per completion were pretty impressive, 16.5 yards. Fort Lewis did put up about 330 yards and 200 of that was through the air, however they also tossed 3 picks.
49-21 loss vs Colorado State: Kind of an interesting game in the fact that UCD kept it within 2-3 scores for a while, until CSU opened it up in the 4th quarter. However UCD couldn’t do much to keep CSU from moving the ball. CSU only punted twice, missed a fieldgoal, and had a turnover on downs at the UCD 17 yard line. CSU put up 676 total yards of offense including 452 passing yards.
37-14 loss vs Eastern Washington: At the half this was looking like a trap game for EWU. The Eagles were clinging to a 9-7 lead. Both teams only had 3 possessions each in the whole first half – all three being long and drawn out drives. In the 2nd half that changed – EWU had 9 2nd half possessions and UCD had 8. EWU rapidly opened up a 30-7 lead in the 3rd quarter – as the quarter ended UCD hit a 70 yard TD play to make it 30-14. EWU replied with a TD early in the 4th and from there they just couldn’t get rolling, losing a fumble, throwing an interception right after forcing a turnover on downs, and then losing the ball on downs after forcing an EWU fumble. UCD had just 260 yards of offense to EWU’s 475.
23-14 loss to Portland State: In the first half this was looking like PSU was going to run all over UCD. It was a 17-0 score in favor of PSU. Davis had just about 55 yards of total offense and one first down the whole half. In the 2nd half UCD opened by intercepting a pass and then scoring shortly after that. Late in the 3rd UCD added another TD to make it 17-14 and it was looking like we had a ballgame going here. In the 4th though UCD slipped back into their first half woes. 3 possessions, no first downs, and about 30 yards of total offense. Meanwhile PSU tacked on two fieldgoals to put the game out of reach. PSU ran for about 250 and passed for 200 while UCD was held to just 44 total rushing yards and just under 196 passing yards.
77-37 loss to Montana State: MSU was taking kneel downs in the UCD red zone with 3-4 minutes left in the game. True to some of MSU’s other games it seems like their defense was either on or it was off. MSU and UCD exchanged some scores at the end of the 1st qtr and the Bobcats had a 14-10 lead. In the 2nd quarter though MSU rattles off 21 unanswered points to get a 35-10 lead and it’s looking fairly safe for them. Davis wasn’t shut out on offense though, they wound up missing a fieldgoal and having a turnover on downs on the MSU 10. In the 2nd half Davis’s offense started finding the endzone again. Davis scored 28 points in the 3rd quarter and into the early 4th quarter with 3 of the 4 drives taking about 2:30 of clock time and another taking just over 1 minute. The problem was their defense couldn’t do a thing and MSU answered every Davis TD with a TD of their own, and usually in a matter of just a few plays. Once MSU grabbed a pick and scored quickly again it was clear that Davis was not going to mount a comeback. MSU had 737 yards of offense 331 passing and 406 rushing, meanwhile Davis had 610 total yards of offense with 231 on the ground and 379 in the air.
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General Stats:
- Davis is scoring on average 23 points per game and allowing a league worst 41.3 points per game. Meanwhile the Grizzlies are scoring 25.7 points per game and allowing a league best 16.8 points per game on defense.
- Davis is averaging just about 138 rushing yards and 206 passing yards per game for a total of about 344 yards per game. Compare that to the Grizzly defense which is allowing 147 rushing yards per game and 176 passing yards per game for a total of 323 yards per game allowed.
- Davis’s defense on the other hand is allowing 206 rushing yards and 315 passing yards per game for an average of 521 yards per game allowed. Compare that to the Grizzly offense which is averaging 148 rushing per game and 182 passing per game for a total of 330 yards per game.
- Davis is +1 in turnovers, they’ve thrown 4 interceptions and lost 4 fumbles. Their defense has forced 6 interceptions and grabbed 3 fumbles. The Griz are +7, largely thanks to forcing fumbles. The Griz have tossed 3 picks and lost just 1 fumble. On defense they’ve forced 3 interceptions and grabbed 6 fumbles.
- In the red zone, UCD is scoring TDs almost 70% of the time, while the Grizzly defense is allowing TDs only 29% of the time. Meanwhile the Grizzly offense is scoring TDs about 60% of the time while UCD is allowing TDs 55% of the time.
- Looking at their per quarter scores the Aggies improve after the half, the issue is in many games their defense has given up so much by that point it doesn’t matter much. The Davis offense opens slow but warms up, while their defense seems to wilt as each half goes on, allowing 72 points in the 2nd qtr this season total and 69 points total in the 4th qtr this season.
- UCD converts 3rd downs at a rate of 29% while the Grizzly defense allows conversions at a rate of 37%. The Grizzly offense converts 3rd downs 36% of the time while UCD’s defense allows 3rd down conversions 49% of the time… ouch.
- UCD has not given up many sacks, only 9 this year, while the Griz have 21 team sacks so far.
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Players to watch
#41 Gabe Manzanares, RB – the 5-9, 195 pound senior has missed a few games this season and was slow getting going but he put up almost 150 rushing yards against MSU, he was also the 2nd leading receiver (receptions) in that game too. Manzanares was UCD’s main dude last season and if he’s rolling again he’ll be the centerpiece of the UCD offense.
#13 Ben Scott, QB – I’m not sure if Scott has taken over starting because of injury or ineffectiveness by the prior starter, London Lacy. Scott had a great game against MSU, 380 passing yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT. Lacy before him had 6 TDs and 3 INTs over the span of 5 games. Scott is a tall QB at 6-3 and 200 pounds. The stats suggest he’s a bit of a scrambler too.
#83 Keelan Doss, WR – Doss is a freshman WR that is another tall guy at 6-3. He’s tied for the team lead with 16 catches and has the most receiving yards with 257. He’s got 2 TDs this season and has a big 16.1 ypc average.
#82 Corey Galdino, WR – Yet ANOTHER tall WR, Galdino is 6-4, he’s also got 16 catches and has 209 yards this season. He leads the team with 4 TDs.
#80 Ramon Vargas, WR – The hits keep on coming, a 6-3 WR, Vargas has 194 yards, but he’s missed most of the season with injury. His big bust-out game was against MSU where he had 141 yards receiving. Watch out for this guy.
#20 Colton Silveria, RB – The backup RB that got plenty of reps while Manzanares worked his way back. Silveria actually still leads the team in carries and yards (301) he’s also got 2 TDs this season. He’s a bruiser of a back at 220 pounds.
#44 Zach Jones, DB – The leading healthy tackler now that one of UCD’s 3 senior leaders on defense (Steven Pitts) is out with an injury. Jones has 31 tackles, 1 INT, and 2 pass breakups.
#21 Darryl Graham, DB – Graham has 21 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 1 int, and 1 fumble recovery. He’s 3rd on the team in tackles but has the 2nd most solo tackles behind Jones.
#94 Marques Barron, DE – a 6-2, 252 pound D-end, he’s tied for the team lead in sacks with 2 (#90 Zak Pettit has 2 as well). Barron has 19 total tackles, 2.5 TFLs, and 2 forced fumbles.
#19 Shamawn Wright, CB – One of the starting corners, Wright has 15 tackles and 1 INT. But that’s not his main forte. He’s also their main kick returner and one of the better ones in the Big Sky. He averages about 25 yards per return and has 1 return for a touchdown this season.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
1. Get the offense going. We’re a rested squad now facing one of the worst defenses in the Big Sky, at home. If there was ever a game to get the offense going this is the one. Sean Haynes is presumably returning as is Mike Ralston – that’ll help in a few key areas both passing and running the ball.
2. Rattle Scott. A new QB coming into a hostile environment. He hasn’t been sacked yet this season but put up some good numbers last week. Pressure the guy, have Wags and Holmes get after him early and often. Keep an eye on him to scramble a bit too. Force him into rushed throws, because if he has time he’s got a trio of tall WRs to connect with.
3. Win in the red zone. UCD’s tall WRs concern me, our pass defense has not been tested with a group like this. Our stellar RZ defense will be put to test if they get in there a lot. The Grizzly D would be well suited to keep the Davis offense under wraps. On the other side of the ball when the Griz get into the RZ we’ve got to put TDs up on the board. (Rumor alert – we may be using a different kicker tomorrow due to injury).
4. Get JJ in space and run more hurry-up. Looking at the Grizzlies stats they really aren’t the power team that we see the coaches wanting them to be. This team it’s WRs, RBs, TEs, and a mobile QB are better suited to move quickly against a defense that’s proven it’s not that great with quick systems.
5. Don’t assume a 3-4 score lead is safe. UCD has seen its offense come to life a bit and had another recent game where they came back after being down 3 scores to put a scare into PSU. We’ve seen this team go to cruise control once the lead is at 21+ points, against this team with an offense finding its stride I’d rather see the Griz keep a bigger lead. We found out against a pretty bad offense in UND that not even a 15 point lead is very safe for long – let’s avoid that this week.
6. Hopefully get meaningful reps for Simis and Gustafson. Yes I know it’s VERY presumptive to assume the Griz will blow this game out, but I’m a fan and it’s ok for me to make that prediction. If the Griz are holding a large lead well into the 3rd or into the 4th quarter let’s get Gus and Simis some reps. And I’m not saying I want them to just hand the ball off 3 times either.
7. Don’t give up big yards on special teams. UCD could make the Griz pay if they get sloppy especially on kick coverage. Don’t make that mistake with a dangerous returner fielding tomorrow’s kicks.
8. Win the turnover battle. The Griz are going to have some opportunities to force a few turnovers, take advantage of that. It seems that some of UCD’s losses they had rallies get stunted by costly turnovers at the wrong moment.
9. Protect JJ – UND probably gave UCD a wide variety of ideas of how to attack our passing game by blitzing and disrupting JJ (or Shay). With Ralston back that’ll help, also have Canada out there to help pass protect.
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Tomorrow I am seeing a Grizzly win but I think it’s going to be a close game for quite some time for a few reasons. The first reason being that our offense hasn’t shown much consistency this year and there is plenty of game film that UCD will use to attack our O-line. That could lead to a slow go of it. Secondly I think UCD’s offense has some renewed confidence with their new QB and are going to come out firing a bit, which is something our pass defense hasn’t seen much. Additionally, a lot of times coming off a bye week I’ve seen Griz teams get a slow start. I could see a 21-10 type of halftime score in favor of the Griz, with the Griz finding some 3rd quarter challenges. I’ll say that the final is somewhere around 35-17 or so.
GO GRIZ!
