The Numbers: Got to thinking about the long-term state of 1-AA/FCS football, based on recent comments on some other threads. The question became where to start. A little study pointed to a key period in the early 1990s, so I began with 1990 when there were 80 teams classified as 1-AA (not including the Ivy League). But in 1991, the NCAA ruled that Division I athletic programs must run all their sports at that level. The greatest impact was on football, where quite a few schools played at a lower level to reduced costs. These schools now had to upgrade their football programs or replace them with another sport. That decision proved, in retrospect, to be bad for 1-AA/FCS football.
When it all shook out in 1995, there were 111 non-Ivy 1-AA teams, even with the loss of four to the FBS level. That is, 35 teams were added in 1992-1995. By and large, these were not strong additions. Two-thirds of them still have cumulative losing records at the 1-AA/FCS level, and several never had a winning season before they dropped football altogether. (All told, nine of the add-ons have since dropped the sport … actually a good thing for the division.) Three of the add-ons did later move up to FBS.
Through the next ten years, the number of non-Ivy 1-AA teams increased by just two (to 113). This despite the loss of 16 teams from the 1995 list (9 moved up to FBS, while 7 dropped football). That was because 18 teams were added. While none of these additions moved to FBS later, the group did include four successful to very successful programs: SE Louisiana, SDSU, Coastal Carolina and NDSU. The rest were mediocre to dreadful. Again, nearly two thirds still have losing records at the FCS level, and four of the worst teams have one winning season between them.
During the 2006-2016 period, ten teams were lost from the 2005 list: 5 moving up to FBS, 5 dropping football. That was offset by the addition of 14 new teams. Unfortunately, with one exception (Central Arkansas), these additions further diminished the strength of the FCS. Twelve of the 14 have losing records since moving to the FCS level, and the seven worse teams have one winning season against D-I opponents between them.
Overall, from 1991 through 2016, 12 schools dropped 1-AA/FCS football and 18 FCS teams moved up to the FBS level. Most of the drops (10) had become FCS after 1990. Most of the move-up teams (15) had been FCS in 1990.
Thus, in 2016, there were 117 teams classed as FCS, not including the Ivy League. Of these, 63 were classed as 1-AA in 1990 – call them the “base” teams – while 54 had been added after that.
The key question is how those additions and subtractions impacted the strength of the FCS field. As suggested by the numbers above, the overall effect has been disastrous. First, only a third of the add-ons have cumulative winning records against D-I opponents, and many bad teams have yet to post a winning D-I season record. In contrast, nearly half of the base teams have winning cumulative records since 1990 and all have posted at least one winning season since then.
Playoff participation offers an even bigger point of departure. Of the 54 add-ons, over half have not yet made the playoffs. (This despite the expanded playoff field.) Another 13 that did make the playoffs have accumulated an 0-20 record. That’s nearly 80% of the add-ons that have not won a playoff game. And among the add-ons, only NDSU has won a national championship (several, of course).
In contrast, nearly 60% of the base teams have won at least one playoff game since 1990. Also, since that time, base teams have won 12 national championships.
The outstanding success for NDSU cannot begin to offset what the FCS has lost with strong teams moving up. At least three of the move-up teams used the 1-A/FCS level as a planned stepping stone to full FBS status and can be discounted (Buffalo, UAB and UCF). But the combined playoff records of the other 15 was 154-92 (63%). They accounted for 15 national championships (with Marshall, Appalachian State, and Georgia Southern as multiple title holders).
So what’s the state of FCS football? The numbers say it has steadily declined in strength.