The gauntlet ahead

[pussycatkillerz]

Combined records of the teams Montana has played: 15-17 (11-16 if you remove Oregon)

If those teams would have had a bye week instead of plying the Griz, their records would be 15-12 (11-11 if you remove Oregon.) In other words, they were at least even in wins/losses or better than that.

Seems to me that 11-16 is the definition of mediocre.

I've already posted this but if you look at the other top 8 teams "defeated teams record stat" we look similar to better...

Defeated Teams Current Records
#1 NDSU 12-14
#2 JMU 12-16
#3 SDSU 5-15
#4 Weber 7-9
#5 Villanova 9-23
#6 MSU 9-17
#8 Montana 11-16

Good teams will presumably always have a skewed "defeated teams record stat".
1. Because they are responsible for a loss to each of their own opponents.
2. Most teams in the FCS are medicore and you can't schedule a top 15 every week.

In my opinion using the records of the teams one has defeated is a piss poor way to value that said teams current capability. Especially in week 6 just coming out of OOC. Far to many variables.

 

[retiredfan]

To be the best you have to beat the best, and Bobby has the team believing in themselves.The Griz have their swagger back, that’s been missing for a few years. We are facing better competition the rest of the way but I think they are up for the task! GO GRIZ!

 

[mcg]

Combined records of the teams Montana has played: 15-17 (11-16 if you remove Oregon)

If those teams would have had a bye week instead of plying the Griz, their records would be 15-12 (11-11 if you remove Oregon.) In other words, they were at least even in wins/losses or better than that.

Seems to me that 11-16 is the definition of mediocre.

I've already posted this but if you look at the other top 8 teams "defeated teams record stat" we look similar to better...

Defeated Teams Current Records
#1 NDSU 12-14
#2 JMU 12-16
#3 SDSU 5-15
#4 Weber 7-9
#5 Villanova 9-23
#6 MSU 9-17
#8 Montana 11-16

Good teams will presumably always have a skewed "defeated teams record stat".
1. Because they are responsible for a loss to each of their own opponents.
2. Most teams in the FCS are medicore and you can't schedule a top 15 every week.

In my opinion using the records of the teams one has defeated is a piss poor way to value that said teams current capability. Especially in week 6 just coming out of OOC. Far to many variables.

Didn't an NFL coach say "you are who your record says you are"? I can't really think of a better to judge the teams the Griz have played than their won/loss records. I'm not trying to downplay what the Griz have accomplished so far, but there is a lot of football left to play.

 

[PlayerRep]

Combined records of the teams Montana has played: 15-17 (11-16 if you remove Oregon)

If those teams would have had a bye week instead of plying the Griz, their records would be 15-12 (11-11 if you remove Oregon.) In other words, they were at least even in wins/losses or better than that.

Seems to me that 11-16 is the definition of mediocre.

I've already posted this but if you look at the other top 8 teams "defeated teams record stat" we look similar to better...

Defeated Teams Current Records
#1 NDSU 12-14
#2 JMU 12-16
#3 SDSU 5-15
#4 Weber 7-9
#5 Villanova 9-23
#6 MSU 9-17
#8 Montana 11-16

Good teams will presumably always have a skewed "defeated teams record stat".
1. Because they are responsible for a loss to each of their own opponents.
2. Most teams in the FCS are medicore and you can't schedule a top 15 every week.

In my opinion using the records of the teams one has defeated is a piss poor way to value that said teams current capability. Especially in week 6 just coming out of OOC. Far to many variables.

Didn't an NFL coach say "you are who your record says you are"? I can't really think of a better to judge the teams the Griz have played than their won/loss records. I'm not trying to downplay what the Griz have accomplished so far, but there is a lot of football left to play.

I don't agree with that quote, especially for college football. It's much more complicated than that. Who did you play? Oregons or Central Washingtons? Did you play against a bunch of MV teams or a bunch of teams from lesser conferences? Were those teams at full strength, or was their star qb hurt? Did you win by 20 or in OT? WAs your star QB out? Was the game played on the edge of a hurricane? Wins are one factor. An important one. But there are many other factors.

 

[garizzalies]

I like B-dub’s and Hav’s posts and agree with them to some extent, but I feel like this year is different and the perfect year for #RTD. Just seems like the FCS and BSC is generally down. UNDSU does not appear as unstoppable, nor does the rest of that conf. The supposed best team in the BSC is literally last on Offense. And the second best team is the Bubcats, who have their worst QB situ, possibly ever which is saying something. MVP looks like a runaway at this point, but suddenly the BSC is top-heavy with teams having great defenses who can’t pass. Huh? Is this really the BSC?

 

[CDAGRIZ]

SEMO sucked. Norfolk St sucked. NAU sucked. Poly sucked and the Cats suck because we needed OT to win.

Agreed.

 

[pussycatkillerz]

SEMO sucked. Norfolk St sucked. NAU sucked. Poly sucked and the Cats suck because we needed OT to win.

Agreed.

:lol:

 

['68griz]

Is it just me or, no matter what season, or what Griz' team it is, that both Griz fans and outsiders can't help themselves when it comes to the old "They weren't who we thought they were". In other words, why do teams ONLY suck after the Griz beat them?

I'm not saying that's what Brint was trying to say, but, there wasn't a soul on this board who didn't prognosticate that the first half of the Griz' 2019 schedule was a gauntlet too. Just look at Brint's highly-detailed scouting reports.

Now though, the Griz have won a bunch of blowouts and those teams magically suck lol. It's completely the case on BN. Look at the Big Sky weekly prediction threads and almost unanimously, posters there picked South Dakota, North Alabama, UC Davis and Idaho State to beat the Griz. And they rarely sited fan bias. Instead, I saw things like: "North Alabama is a team the Griz will completely overlook, they have 22 FBS dropdowns, they beat so and so, ect." For the Davis game "Look at how Davis took NDSU to the wire. No way Griz can hang with them". For the Idaho State game "UC Davis letdown, Phen Phen and Ferriter know everything, AND they beat the Cats last year with the same guys." Hell, I saw posts during the game both on here and BN, saying the Griz were going to get blown out when they were down 17-0. 59-3 later, I saw multiple posts saying "Idaho State is a really bad football team."

My question is, how come NO ONE on these message boards knows enough about football to know these teams suck BEFORE the Griz beat them? I mean come on, Idaho State had played four games already. Surely a smart Griz or Bobcat fan would have known they were terrible?

Look, I get records, I get Sagarin, I get it. I follow it all. It's my job. But, reality sometimes stares you right in the face. The eye test counts too. And if you think Maier, Harrell and Ulonzo Gilham are bad now because the Griz beat them and they're 2-4, I question your football IQ. If you think Michael Dean, Ty Flanagan and Gueller suck only after the Griz beat them, you're not being honest. Do you really think right now Bobby thinks Eastern Washington sucks? Hell no. And on the flip side of that coin, Case Cookus HAS to suck then because the Cats blew his ass out of Bobcat Stadium.

Seriously, I'm imparting a lot of sacarsim here so no one need be offended. But at the same time, you all have to admit, the Griz ALWAYS end up with a weak schedule, ONLY after they have some success. In other words. They rarely get credit for that success.

As an ISU homer, this is possibly the best post I've read on egriz in awhile. By no means are the teams Griz has defeated or blown out like ISU suck, it's that the Griz had a game changing moment and used that to their advantage to win. The players feed off this and was very apparent in this game. Once the train starts you can't stop it. Especially with Sneed at the helm. That kid is something special.

I was at the game this past weekend and when we were up 17-0, I felt like we owned Griz-Washington as any ISU fan would. On top of the f'ing world silencing the stadium after Ty Flanagan's 71 yd TD which was pretty damn impressive. After that, we stepped into the twilight zone. Watching the adjustments and game play change from the Griz was something that has to be seen in person to respect. Even though I was pissed beyond belief of what was happening in front of my eyes, at the same time I was in awe of how a team could flip the coin so quickly and make adjustments to our weaknesses. It's not that our team sucks, it's that we were stunned and the Griz knew exactly how and when to take advantage. A small cut turned into a decapitation and I have great respect for players to harness that opportunity and make it happen. I also have respect for those that also suffer defeat with dignity. That was a tough loss, but notice to the remaining Big Sky teams playing the Griz this season, buckle up, because this team is the real deal. I'm picking the Griz to win the FCS title this year. Someone has to smack NDSU back to reality and this is the team to do it.

Thank you!

 

[Missoula223]

I get what you’re saying but this has gone on from the beginning of time and it’s not just the poor griz getting picked on. I can point to the exact same examples on BN where people say the cats are gonna lose and then when we win the teams we played sucked. SEMO sucked. Norfolk St sucked. NAU sucked. Poly sucked and the Cats suck because we needed OT to win.

It’s how it’s always been. I said it was funny that ISU was a “black flag” game. Picked the griz to win big. They did what they should have done. But I was told it was a big game and ISU is actually really good thus great win for griz.

I happen to think Sac looks pretty good. I think they’ll give us all we can handle. But we’re just “hedging” and calling a bad team good in case we lose right? Lol.

This will never change. Teams are good until you beat them. Sac will suck this weekend on egriz but my guess is by next weekend egriz will think they’re very tough.

I believe sac is good regardless of how this weekends game goes. Top 3 big sky team IMO.

 

[FlyCastingCat]

I get what you’re saying but this has gone on from the beginning of time and it’s not just the poor griz getting picked on. I can point to the exact same examples on BN where people say the cats are gonna lose and then when we win the teams we played sucked. SEMO sucked. Norfolk St sucked. NAU sucked. Poly sucked and the Cats suck because we needed OT to win.

It’s how it’s always been. I said it was funny that ISU was a “black flag” game. Picked the griz to win big. They did what they should have done. But I was told it was a big game and ISU is actually really good thus great win for griz.

I happen to think Sac looks pretty good. I think they’ll give us all we can handle. But we’re just “hedging” and calling a bad team good in case we lose right? Lol.

This will never change. Teams are good until you beat them. Sac will suck this weekend on egriz but my guess is by next weekend egriz will think they’re very tough.

I believe sac is good regardless of how this weekends game goes. Top 3 big sky team IMO.

Yea but if the Cat defense holds them down and grinds out a win, all of a sudden the egriz narrative will be that Sac State is really suck state, and isn't as good as everyone thought. I mean how could they be?? MSU beat them after all..

 

[Fushiznitz]

I get what you’re saying but this has gone on from the beginning of time and it’s not just the poor griz getting picked on. I can point to the exact same examples on BN where people say the cats are gonna lose and then when we win the teams we played sucked. SEMO sucked. Norfolk St sucked. NAU sucked. Poly sucked and the Cats suck because we needed OT to win.

It’s how it’s always been. I said it was funny that ISU was a “black flag” game. Picked the griz to win big. They did what they should have done. But I was told it was a big game and ISU is actually really good thus great win for griz.

I happen to think Sac looks pretty good. I think they’ll give us all we can handle. But we’re just “hedging” and calling a bad team good in case we lose right? Lol.

This will never change. Teams are good until you beat them. Sac will suck this weekend on egriz but my guess is by next weekend egriz will think they’re very tough.

I believe sac is good regardless of how this weekends game goes. Top 3 big sky team IMO.

Yea but if the Cat defense holds them down and grinds out a win, all of a sudden the egriz narrative will be that Sac State is really suck state, and isn't as good as everyone thought. I mean how could they be?? MSU beat them after all..

You are a little late to the party

 

[CDAGRIZ]

I get what you’re saying but this has gone on from the beginning of time and it’s not just the poor griz getting picked on. I can point to the exact same examples on BN where people say the cats are gonna lose and then when we win the teams we played sucked. SEMO sucked. Norfolk St sucked. NAU sucked. Poly sucked and the Cats suck because we needed OT to win.

It’s how it’s always been. I said it was funny that ISU was a “black flag” game. Picked the griz to win big. They did what they should have done. But I was told it was a big game and ISU is actually really good thus great win for griz.

I happen to think Sac looks pretty good. I think they’ll give us all we can handle. But we’re just “hedging” and calling a bad team good in case we lose right? Lol.

This will never change. Teams are good until you beat them. Sac will suck this weekend on egriz but my guess is by next weekend egriz will think they’re very tough.

I believe sac is good regardless of how this weekends game goes. Top 3 big sky team IMO.

Yea but if the Cat defense holds them down and grinds out a win, all of a sudden the egriz narrative will be that Sac State is really suck state, and isn't as good as everyone thought. I mean how could they be?? MSU beat them after all..

That's correct.

 

[BWahlberg]

I've already said this but yeah, gauntlet is an understatement.

We will be playing 3 ranked teams (2 highly) along with 2 others in the discussion. This is by far our toughest schedule to finish a year in the modern era.

For reference the 1995 Championship team finished their last 6 games with 1 ranked team (#16) and 5 unranked teams.
The 2001 Championship team finished their last 6 games with 1 ranked team (#18) and 5 unranked teams

It's unrealistic not to expect some adversity in these last 6 games. Every great Griz team has had their fair share of it. If the Griz find a way to get through these next 6 games we will be seeded #1 or #2 and primed for a deep run. Will be a monumental challenge relative to past Griz schedules but this team appears to be ready for the challenge.

Thank you! That was a bit more of what I was attempting to have discussed here. We've got one hell of a road ahead of us. I think/hope it'll be for the best. Griz will be battle tested for sure.

 

[ilovethecats]

SEMO sucked. Norfolk St sucked. NAU sucked. Poly sucked and the Cats suck because we needed OT to win.

Agreed.

 

[Missoula223]

I get what you’re saying but this has gone on from the beginning of time and it’s not just the poor griz getting picked on. I can point to the exact same examples on BN where people say the cats are gonna lose and then when we win the teams we played sucked. SEMO sucked. Norfolk St sucked. NAU sucked. Poly sucked and the Cats suck because we needed OT to win.

It’s how it’s always been. I said it was funny that ISU was a “black flag” game. Picked the griz to win big. They did what they should have done. But I was told it was a big game and ISU is actually really good thus great win for griz.

I happen to think Sac looks pretty good. I think they’ll give us all we can handle. But we’re just “hedging” and calling a bad team good in case we lose right? Lol.

This will never change. Teams are good until you beat them. Sac will suck this weekend on egriz but my guess is by next weekend egriz will think they’re very tough.

I believe sac is good regardless of how this weekends game goes. Top 3 big sky team IMO.

Yea but if the Cat defense holds them down and grinds out a win, all of a sudden the egriz narrative will be that Sac State is really suck state, and isn't as good as everyone thought. I mean how could they be?? MSU beat them after all..

This is the biggest “poor me” statement I’ve ever read. I literally just complimented the team you’re about to play regardless of the result and you had to find a way to turn it into a bullshit sad song?

 

[signedbewildered]

I just wonder if AG state can pull out a sexy loss this weekend.

 

[CDAGRIZ]

I just wonder if AG state can pull out a sexy loss this weekend.

Win or lose, Choach will keep it sexy. It’s kind of his thing, now.

 

[SinCityGriz2005]

:thumb:

...that old one game at a time...
...dial into the sac/scat game...
...worry about nothing else...

... ...

 

[SinCityGriz2005]

It’s the same thing I tell my kids. You go into the next game 0-0, play with attitude, punch em in the teeth and leave winners. The rest don’t mean a damn thing.

 

[mtgriz]

According to this week’s Sagarin ratings the Griz are ranked higher than every team in the gauntlet. Converting the ratings to point spreads...

Sac St 8 points
EWU 12 points
PSU 18 points
Idaho 18 points
Weber St 7 points
Bozeman St 7 points