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The 2015 Grizzly defense vs the dreaded "big play"

BWahlberg

BWahlberg

Well-known member
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I wanted to take a look at some of our general defensive stats and then back out some of the big play TDs they’ve allowed. As we’ve seen in the first 4 games it’s the “big play” that can bite the defense. If our defense can continue to reduce these big plays this gives us a little glimpse of what could be. Hopefully as the team continues along and our secondary keeps improving these big plays can get cut back.

2015 defensive general stats:

Rush Total: 716
Rush YPG: 179
Pass Total: 733
Pass YPG: 183.2
Total Yards: 1449
Total YPG: 362.2
Points allowed: 100
Points per game: 25

NDSU game:
- 27 yard TD pass
- 19 yard TD run
- 44 yard pass
- 27 yard pass
- 33 yard run

CPSLO game:
- 60 yard TD run
- 36 yard TD pass

Liberty game:
- 72 yard TD pass
- 32 yard TD pass
- 40 yard TD run
- 43 yard pass
- 39 yard pass

NAU game:
- 57 yard TD pass
- 34 yard TD pass
- 29 yard pass

This season on the big plays the Grizzly defense has allowed:

- 440 passing yards and 6 TDs (60% of passing yards allowed and 75% of pass TDs)
- 152 rushing yards and 3 TDs (17% of rushing yards allowed and 60% of rushing TDs)

The passing big plays really caught me. The Grizzly pass defense is showing improvement but obviously this shows a weak spot. Consider that 440 yards and 6 TDs comes on just 11 plays. The pass defense has defended 94 passes this season. So on 12% of the snaps they’ve played they’ve allowed 75% of the passing TDs and 60% of the total yards. You can spin this two ways. Obviously it’s not good that such a small percentage of plays is giving up so many points. On the other hand you’ve got a pretty clear point that shows what needs the most improvement, additionally on 88% of all passing downs our defense is doing it's damn job. The NAU game big plays could argue the lack of Harris and Ramussen had an effect – recall the longer TD was against Sanders who was playing in Rasmussen’s stead and the 2nd TD with Nelson in single coverage seemed like a spot where a safety should have been helping (middle of the field). Excuses aside though the numbers are the numbers.

Now consider this – if the Grizzly defense would’ve allowed half as many big plays / scores in the first four games, here’s how the stats would’ve adjusted:

Rush total: 640 yards
Rush YPG: 160 YPG
Pass total: 513 yards
Pass YPG: 128.3 YPG
Total yards 1153 yards
Total YPG: 230.6 YPG
Points allowed: 65
Points per game: 13

And without a doubt we’d be 4-0.

Now is this the defenses “fault” we’re 2-2? Good Lord no – we’ve all watched the games, we know there’s improvements needed from every position. We’re down our starting QB, our D-line is beat up, and we’re in a quandary at center after losing our all-conference center before the season even started.

You guys know me, I lean to the positive side of things. Gregorak’s defenses generally improve, statistically as the seasons go on. Add in we’re leaning on some new guys and some revised depth – as experience builds, hopefully so will prevention of big plays.

If the Griz can cut back the big plays to just a handful per game then they'll be in a great position to win a lot more games this season - even if the offense can only score in the mid/upper 20's. The challenge is we've got the top 3 offenses yet to play this year, MSU, EWU, and PSU. On the good side we've also got the 8th, 10th, 11th, and 12th ranked offenses too.
 
grizindabox said:
The uptempo offense has them plumb tuckered out.... :thumb:
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Who "them" ?

Watched our record of the game last night, and two things struck me. Yes, the O "got in rhythm" on the last drive that put the game out of reach ... but it also looked like Stitt's strategy did work toward the end. We saw a lot of Lumberjack defenders with their hands on their hips, sucking air, on that drive. Three-and-out doesn't cut it, but longer drives at a high tempo does, even if the Griz only get a FG (TD would be even better, obviously :) )
 
On another view point....if our offense is working like it should/can/will, the big plays will become even a bigger part because our opponents will be coming from behind and these long pass plays will need to be controlled! A lot of learning has to happen in the next three games.....
 
While you can't argue with the stats and the results of these big pass plays, in almost every one of them, I thought coverage was pretty dang good. Receivers like Butler, Mangum upcoming and Kupp upcoming aren't just making these plays against the Grizzlies. These guys do it every week, just like Jamaal Jones is doing this season to defenses the Griz play against. Personally, I like that Ty is playing more 1-on-1. He has a lot of faith in these corners, even with Harris out last week, he was very trusting of McKinley and even Markell Sanders, who will be a great one before his time here is done. And if two long pass plays, resulting in 14 points is as bad as gets, I can live with that.
 
What does it look like when you hold the opponents explosives vs. Griz explosives side by side? Liberty likely had a few more, and NAU a few less than the Griz. Can't recall CPSLO, but we likely matched or exceeded NDSU. Win the explosive plays battle and you win 80% of the time. Thanks for sharing.
 
Both the NAU TDs were against the same set. It seemed like an odd scheme to me. Double WRs to the left for NAU with Butler on the outside. Sanders in press coverage in the inside reciever and Gamboa lined up halfway between the NAU tackle and the inside receiver. On the snap Gamboa read pass and dropped into a zone but I don't see anyway a receiver was ever going to run thru that space. With the scheme I was sure he was going to blitz but dropped to about 8 yards. He took himself out of any chance of doing anything. The free safety shaded to the other side shallow and this put Butler 1 on 1 with zero help. No defender was going to stop him from getting to the post. Once maybe but doing it twice I don't understand. In general I think our safeties play way too shallow, especially with the linebackers we have. I believe this is a recipe to give up long plays.
 
The big plays certainly have hurt but the Griz D has had some difficult stretches during games too. That first half at Liberty was particularly brutal. After starting the first defensive series strong(a stuffed running play and the Harris TOF on the WR screen), the D promptly gave up that 3rd and long pass play that went into Griz territory. Liberty drove the rest of the way to the TD with relative ease it seemed. The next series was the TD pass play over the top were Whitted got beat. They were also having trouble with Liberty's hard count. Sure it was a road game, in a difficult environment, but the D struggled for a half before finally stabilizing things somewhat later in the 2nd half....
 
If you play aggressive d your going to give up big plays period. Dont care who you play. Look at the nfl, aggresive d gets burned its a risk vs reward system its not that complex
 
BWahlberg said:
If the Griz can cut back the big plays to just a handful per game then they'll be in a great position to win a lot more games this season - even if the offense can only score in the mid/upper 20's. The challenge is we've got the top 3 offenses yet to play this year, MSU, EWU, and PSU. On the good side we've also got the 8th, 10th, 11th, and 12th ranked defenses too.
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Fixed it for you.
 
I hate giving up the big play just the same as everyone. But I would rather give up an occasional big play vs a defense that sits back in coverage and waits for a mistake. I liked the aggressive defensive play calling against NAU. Yes, it is risky with single coverage. Risk / reward. Once our offense gets on track then I think we can continue to play aggressive defense without worry about an occasional big play. Just my opinion.
 
griz70 said:
I hate giving up the big play just the same as everyone. But I would rather give up an occasional big play vs a defense that sits back in coverage and waits for a mistake. I liked the aggressive defensive play calling against NAU. Yes, it is risky with single coverage. Risk / reward. Once our offense gets on track then I think we can continue to play aggressive defense without worry about an occasional big play. Just my opinion.
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:thumb:
 
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