The regular season is behind us and now it’s time to focus in on the post season. The Grizzlies are the 14 seed and will host a home game this Saturday at 8:15pm. Coming to town is the Tennessee State Tigers. TSU has a few ties to Montana! Their DC is former Grizzly LB Brandon Fisher. I think most here recall, Brandon was a linebacker on those 2008 – 2009 natty appearance teams.
TSU in 2023 went 6-5 on the season. This year they were picked to finish 4th in the OVC, yesterday they beat SEMO to finish tied atop the conference but SEMO still got the auto-bid. The OVC is a bit of an odd conference because they blend some polling between the two conferences (Big South & OVC) so they play games across each conference. The combo conference doesn’t have an all-conference team, however they did have 12 guys names to a “player to watch” list.
They’ll probably finish in the top 25 after their win over SEMO yesterday. If you pull current polls before yesterday’s games TSU was ranked 25th by the coaches and was the highest “also receiving votes” in Stats poll.
Pulling TSU’s stats in the Big South-OVC they have (of 9 total teams)
41-21 win vs Mississippi Valley State – It was 31-0 TSU at the half, MVST added some 4th quarter points. TSU passed for almost 360 yards in the game and held MVST to under 200 total yards of offense. Neither team was great on 3rd down. Most of TSU’s scoring drives were at/under 2:00 – lots of big plays.
3-52 loss @ North Dakota State – NDSU did what they do, ran for 226, passed for 210, and held TSU to 200 total yards of offense. NDSU had a very slight edge in TOP but was a highly efficient 8 for 12 on 3rd down, while TSU was just 4-14.
41-28 win vs Arkansas Pine Bluff – It was a game for the first few quarters but as things went on, TSU pulled away. TSU’s offense was pretty balanced, about 200 rushing and just under 230 passing. They did give up nearly 300 passing yards. TSU in their first 8 drives found themselves in UAP’s side of the field, scoring 6 times, and missing 2 field goals.
14-24 loss @ Tennessee Tech – Tennessee Tech is billed as one of the better defenses in the OVC. This one was tied 14-14 at the half, but then Tech would add 10 and totally shut out TSU in the 2nd half. If the box score is correct, TSU had 0 yards rushing on 27 attempts, they did have about 250 passing. Tech had 220 on the ground and just under 100 passing.
13-9 win vs Charleston Southern – The box score suggests higher winds and rain, stats suggest it as well. TSU was out-gained 310 to 210, CSU had about 220 of their own just on the ground. CSU had the ball for nearly 42:00 of TOP and was still just 2 of 13 on 3rd down (they were 3 of 5 on 4th). TSU won this game late! They were down 9-7 in most of the 2nd half but put together a late drive and score with just 46 seconds remaining to take the lead, and eventually win the game.
24-20 win @ Lindenwood – Another comeback win! In this one TSU was down 20-7 at the half, they would score on a long shot pass in the 3rd quarter, and then eventually midway through the 4th score the go-ahead TD. Lindenwood, after falling behind, was unable to do much, a turnover on downs, a punt, and a lost fumble. Again, not a lot of offense for either, 285 combined for TSU, 280 for Lindenwood.
41-17 win vs E. Illinois – EIU had 360 passing on 51 attempts – but just couldn’t keep pace with TSU as the game went on. Despite the lopsided final score it was just 20-17 TSU until about 4 minutes to go in the 3rd. TSU forced a few turnovers, had a few long punt and kick returns, and generally kept the field pretty short for them.
27-14 win @ Hampton – TSU’s defense forced 2 interceptions, forced 2 turnovers on downs, and took a kickoff to the house in this game. Their passing offense had some solid numbers 19-30 and 289 yards. Howard barely had 200 yards of total offense.
21-28 loss vs UT Martin – UTM is also in the playoffs, I believe the winner of UTM’s game goes to Bozeman. TSU never lead in this game, UTM jumped all over them, up 21-0 in the first quarter. TSU would then return a kick for a TD to set it to 21-7 and then the rest of the game was quite the grudge match. The last score was in the 3rd quarter. The 4th was a bit of a mess for everyone. As the game went on UTM would toss a pick, miss a field goal, and have a 3 and out. Meanwhile TSU would throw a pair of picks and have a turnover on downs. Yikes. TSU’s offense had 312 passing, not much rushing.
45-20 win @ Western Illinois – Nice bounce-back win for TSU. Western Illinois would sometimes get within a few scores, but then TSU would shut down any hope pretty quickly. TSU was really balanced, rushing for 194, passing for 197. WIU slightly outgained TSU, 432 to 391, but WIU had two costly turnovers.
23-20 win @ Gardner-Webb – Not a high scoring game, but also not as close as the score might suggests. TSU lead the whole way, GW would score 2 points on a blocked PAT. GW would also score with just 1:41 left in the game to make it 23-20, but couldn’t get the ball back and TSU would wind out the clock. TSU ran for 140, passed for 200, would pick a pass, and have the TOP advantage.
28-21 win vs SEMO – This game punched TSU’s ticket. Beating ranked (and playoff bound) SE Missouri. In the game TSU would jump up 21-0 on a deep shot pass play, a defensive scoop and score, and a rushing TD. SEMO would recollect themselves and score 14 in the 2nd quarter to set it to 21-14 at the half. However, just 15 seconds into the 2nd half TSU would strike again with a long TD run. From there the TSU defense would hold SEMO to 3 punts and then a turnover on downs. SEMO would score with just under 7:00 to go in the game to get it to 28-21 – but then on their last two possessions they’d punt and then run out of clock on their last drive to try to tie it. TSU played a clean game, no turnovers, and they’d out-gain SEMO about 350 to 310.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game TSU (222 for GRIZ vs 229 for TSU)
Rushing yards per game GRIZ (201 for GRIZ vs 112 for TSU)
Total offense GRIZ (423 for GRIZ vs 341 for TSU)
Passing yards allowed per game TSU (208 for GRIZ vs 196 for TSU)
Rushing yards allowed per game TSU (154 for GRIZ vs 139 for TSU)
Total defense TSU (362 for GRIZ vs 335 for TSU)
Griz get 2 on offense, but TSU sweeps the defensive stats and get 4.
Offense points scored GRIZ (34 for GRIZ vs 26.76 for TSU)
Defense points allowed TSU (25 for GRIZ vs 22.83 for TSU)
Turnover margin GRIZ (+7 for GRIZ / +4 for TSU)
Field goal % GRIZ (71% for GRIZ vs 53% for TSU)
Punt Returns GRIZ (14.4 yards for GRIZ vs 9 yards for TSU)
Kick Returns TSU (22 yards for GRIZ vs 26.8 yards for TSU)
T.O.P. TSU (29:37 for GRIZ vs 29:56 for TSU)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) GRIZ (56% GRIZ / 60% TSU)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) GRIZ (71% GRIZ / 50% TSU)
3rd down offense GRIZ – (43.5% for GRIZ / 38.75% for TSU)
3rd down defense TSU – (38.2% allowed for GRIZ vs 37% allowed for TSU)
Mixed bag here for both teams. The Griz pick up 7, TSU gets 4. That puts the total at Montana with 9 and Tennessee State with 8. Close one!
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Tennessee State Players to Watch:
#1 Draylen Ellis, QB: Originally a 3 star QB out of high school he went to Austin Peay and proceeded in 2021 to be named the OVC co-freshman of the year. His sophomore year he was 2nd team all OVC and then in 2022 he transferred to TSU. This is his 3rd year starting for TSU, he’s a super experienced QB. Ellis is a bit of a rushing QB, you need to account for his rushing ability, although he’s peeled that back a bit this season. In his career at TSU he’s got 440 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs. This year he’s got a net of 134 rushing and 2 TDs. He’s completing a little over 60% of his passes and is averaging a solid 227 yards per game, he’s got 22 passing TDs and 7 interceptions.
#23 CJ Evans, RB: This guy worries me, a 5-8, 180 pound RB he’s an electric playmaker. Also an Austin Peay transfer. Evans has started in prior years at RB and is used all over the field. He’s got 283 rushing yards and a team high 3 rushing TDs. He’s got 274 receiving yards (4th best on the team) and 3 receiving TDs. He’s averaging 9.3 yards per return on punts, and he’s got a damn near 38 yards per return average on kicks and has 2 KR touchdowns.
#0 Karate Benson, WR: A big target at WR, he’s 6-2, 215 pounds. He leads the team by a good margin with 16 more catches than the next guy. So far this year he’s got 884 yards and 4 receiving TDs.
#4 Jaden McGill, RB: TSU uses a handful of guys in the run game but McGill is the workhorse. The 6 foot tall, 205 pound RB has 112 carries this season for a team high 502 yards. He’s got 2 rushing TDs. He’s a bit of a threat in the pass game too, 11 receptions for 67 yards.
#8 Jalal Dean, WR: Dean is the #2 WR in most statistical categories, both receptions and yards. He’s got 569 receiving yards this season. He is tops on the team with 6 receiving TDs.
#7 Ahmad Nelson, LB: Looks like he’s a team captain, a 6-2, 225 pound linebacker, he leads the team with 90 tackles. He’s got 8.5 TFLs and 0.5 sacks. His stat line shows a forced fumble, fumble recovery, and 1 pass break up.
#44 Eriq George, DL: This team has a big/mean DL and George is one of their main dudes. The 280 pound lineman has a team high 12 TFLs and 5.5 sacks. He’s got 49 tackles in total to go with that. He has 9 QB hits and 1 forced fumble.
#12 Sanders Ellis, LB: A freshman LB who is having a great season, 2nd on the team in tackles with 71, he’s also got 11 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, and 3 pass breakups. He’s also forced 1 fumble this season.
#18 Keandre Booker, DL: A 240 pound d-lineman he’s got the most sacks on the team with 6.5, and a solid 11 TFLs as well. 35 total tackles, 7 QB hits, 1 forced and 1 fumble recovery.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
This one… will be interesting. I think it’s going to be low scoring for a few reasons. First off, TSU is a defensive minded team and they want to slow the game down and limit possessions. Secondly, Montana could be without one of their two top RBs, one of their top WRs, and the health of their other WRs is kind of unknown. Add in TSU has a long trip and will be playing in colder weather with a kick time at 10:15 their time, and Montana is probably going to have a bit of a brawl loss hangover.
I know Griz fans wanted so much more from this team in the regular season but I really hope you all don’t punish this team, especially these seniors, by opting not to go. Night games can be a blast and who knows, maybe we’ll get some weather (some precipitation coming the day before currently). I know it’ll be a smaller crowd because of the holiday weekend, the late kick, and the cold – but I hope those who make it can get rowdy!
I think this will be a close one, I like Montana at home, but I expect a very fired up TSU to show up. They’ll be gunning for a major upset here. I’ll say Montana wins it to punch a ticket to SDSU, but it’s tight. Griz win, 24-17.
Go Griz!
TSU in 2023 went 6-5 on the season. This year they were picked to finish 4th in the OVC, yesterday they beat SEMO to finish tied atop the conference but SEMO still got the auto-bid. The OVC is a bit of an odd conference because they blend some polling between the two conferences (Big South & OVC) so they play games across each conference. The combo conference doesn’t have an all-conference team, however they did have 12 guys names to a “player to watch” list.
They’ll probably finish in the top 25 after their win over SEMO yesterday. If you pull current polls before yesterday’s games TSU was ranked 25th by the coaches and was the highest “also receiving votes” in Stats poll.
Pulling TSU’s stats in the Big South-OVC they have (of 9 total teams)
- 4th best scoring offense / 3rd best scoring defense
- 7th in total offense / 2nd best total defense
- 7th rushing offense / 5th rushing defense
- 5th passing offense / 1st passing defense
- Best kick return group with 2 TDs
41-21 win vs Mississippi Valley State – It was 31-0 TSU at the half, MVST added some 4th quarter points. TSU passed for almost 360 yards in the game and held MVST to under 200 total yards of offense. Neither team was great on 3rd down. Most of TSU’s scoring drives were at/under 2:00 – lots of big plays.
3-52 loss @ North Dakota State – NDSU did what they do, ran for 226, passed for 210, and held TSU to 200 total yards of offense. NDSU had a very slight edge in TOP but was a highly efficient 8 for 12 on 3rd down, while TSU was just 4-14.
41-28 win vs Arkansas Pine Bluff – It was a game for the first few quarters but as things went on, TSU pulled away. TSU’s offense was pretty balanced, about 200 rushing and just under 230 passing. They did give up nearly 300 passing yards. TSU in their first 8 drives found themselves in UAP’s side of the field, scoring 6 times, and missing 2 field goals.
14-24 loss @ Tennessee Tech – Tennessee Tech is billed as one of the better defenses in the OVC. This one was tied 14-14 at the half, but then Tech would add 10 and totally shut out TSU in the 2nd half. If the box score is correct, TSU had 0 yards rushing on 27 attempts, they did have about 250 passing. Tech had 220 on the ground and just under 100 passing.
13-9 win vs Charleston Southern – The box score suggests higher winds and rain, stats suggest it as well. TSU was out-gained 310 to 210, CSU had about 220 of their own just on the ground. CSU had the ball for nearly 42:00 of TOP and was still just 2 of 13 on 3rd down (they were 3 of 5 on 4th). TSU won this game late! They were down 9-7 in most of the 2nd half but put together a late drive and score with just 46 seconds remaining to take the lead, and eventually win the game.
24-20 win @ Lindenwood – Another comeback win! In this one TSU was down 20-7 at the half, they would score on a long shot pass in the 3rd quarter, and then eventually midway through the 4th score the go-ahead TD. Lindenwood, after falling behind, was unable to do much, a turnover on downs, a punt, and a lost fumble. Again, not a lot of offense for either, 285 combined for TSU, 280 for Lindenwood.
41-17 win vs E. Illinois – EIU had 360 passing on 51 attempts – but just couldn’t keep pace with TSU as the game went on. Despite the lopsided final score it was just 20-17 TSU until about 4 minutes to go in the 3rd. TSU forced a few turnovers, had a few long punt and kick returns, and generally kept the field pretty short for them.
27-14 win @ Hampton – TSU’s defense forced 2 interceptions, forced 2 turnovers on downs, and took a kickoff to the house in this game. Their passing offense had some solid numbers 19-30 and 289 yards. Howard barely had 200 yards of total offense.
21-28 loss vs UT Martin – UTM is also in the playoffs, I believe the winner of UTM’s game goes to Bozeman. TSU never lead in this game, UTM jumped all over them, up 21-0 in the first quarter. TSU would then return a kick for a TD to set it to 21-7 and then the rest of the game was quite the grudge match. The last score was in the 3rd quarter. The 4th was a bit of a mess for everyone. As the game went on UTM would toss a pick, miss a field goal, and have a 3 and out. Meanwhile TSU would throw a pair of picks and have a turnover on downs. Yikes. TSU’s offense had 312 passing, not much rushing.
45-20 win @ Western Illinois – Nice bounce-back win for TSU. Western Illinois would sometimes get within a few scores, but then TSU would shut down any hope pretty quickly. TSU was really balanced, rushing for 194, passing for 197. WIU slightly outgained TSU, 432 to 391, but WIU had two costly turnovers.
23-20 win @ Gardner-Webb – Not a high scoring game, but also not as close as the score might suggests. TSU lead the whole way, GW would score 2 points on a blocked PAT. GW would also score with just 1:41 left in the game to make it 23-20, but couldn’t get the ball back and TSU would wind out the clock. TSU ran for 140, passed for 200, would pick a pass, and have the TOP advantage.
28-21 win vs SEMO – This game punched TSU’s ticket. Beating ranked (and playoff bound) SE Missouri. In the game TSU would jump up 21-0 on a deep shot pass play, a defensive scoop and score, and a rushing TD. SEMO would recollect themselves and score 14 in the 2nd quarter to set it to 21-14 at the half. However, just 15 seconds into the 2nd half TSU would strike again with a long TD run. From there the TSU defense would hold SEMO to 3 punts and then a turnover on downs. SEMO would score with just under 7:00 to go in the game to get it to 28-21 – but then on their last two possessions they’d punt and then run out of clock on their last drive to try to tie it. TSU played a clean game, no turnovers, and they’d out-gain SEMO about 350 to 310.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game TSU (222 for GRIZ vs 229 for TSU)
Rushing yards per game GRIZ (201 for GRIZ vs 112 for TSU)
Total offense GRIZ (423 for GRIZ vs 341 for TSU)
Passing yards allowed per game TSU (208 for GRIZ vs 196 for TSU)
Rushing yards allowed per game TSU (154 for GRIZ vs 139 for TSU)
Total defense TSU (362 for GRIZ vs 335 for TSU)
Griz get 2 on offense, but TSU sweeps the defensive stats and get 4.
Offense points scored GRIZ (34 for GRIZ vs 26.76 for TSU)
Defense points allowed TSU (25 for GRIZ vs 22.83 for TSU)
Turnover margin GRIZ (+7 for GRIZ / +4 for TSU)
Field goal % GRIZ (71% for GRIZ vs 53% for TSU)
Punt Returns GRIZ (14.4 yards for GRIZ vs 9 yards for TSU)
Kick Returns TSU (22 yards for GRIZ vs 26.8 yards for TSU)
T.O.P. TSU (29:37 for GRIZ vs 29:56 for TSU)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) GRIZ (56% GRIZ / 60% TSU)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) GRIZ (71% GRIZ / 50% TSU)
3rd down offense GRIZ – (43.5% for GRIZ / 38.75% for TSU)
3rd down defense TSU – (38.2% allowed for GRIZ vs 37% allowed for TSU)
Mixed bag here for both teams. The Griz pick up 7, TSU gets 4. That puts the total at Montana with 9 and Tennessee State with 8. Close one!
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Tennessee State Players to Watch:
#1 Draylen Ellis, QB: Originally a 3 star QB out of high school he went to Austin Peay and proceeded in 2021 to be named the OVC co-freshman of the year. His sophomore year he was 2nd team all OVC and then in 2022 he transferred to TSU. This is his 3rd year starting for TSU, he’s a super experienced QB. Ellis is a bit of a rushing QB, you need to account for his rushing ability, although he’s peeled that back a bit this season. In his career at TSU he’s got 440 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs. This year he’s got a net of 134 rushing and 2 TDs. He’s completing a little over 60% of his passes and is averaging a solid 227 yards per game, he’s got 22 passing TDs and 7 interceptions.
#23 CJ Evans, RB: This guy worries me, a 5-8, 180 pound RB he’s an electric playmaker. Also an Austin Peay transfer. Evans has started in prior years at RB and is used all over the field. He’s got 283 rushing yards and a team high 3 rushing TDs. He’s got 274 receiving yards (4th best on the team) and 3 receiving TDs. He’s averaging 9.3 yards per return on punts, and he’s got a damn near 38 yards per return average on kicks and has 2 KR touchdowns.
#0 Karate Benson, WR: A big target at WR, he’s 6-2, 215 pounds. He leads the team by a good margin with 16 more catches than the next guy. So far this year he’s got 884 yards and 4 receiving TDs.
#4 Jaden McGill, RB: TSU uses a handful of guys in the run game but McGill is the workhorse. The 6 foot tall, 205 pound RB has 112 carries this season for a team high 502 yards. He’s got 2 rushing TDs. He’s a bit of a threat in the pass game too, 11 receptions for 67 yards.
#8 Jalal Dean, WR: Dean is the #2 WR in most statistical categories, both receptions and yards. He’s got 569 receiving yards this season. He is tops on the team with 6 receiving TDs.
#7 Ahmad Nelson, LB: Looks like he’s a team captain, a 6-2, 225 pound linebacker, he leads the team with 90 tackles. He’s got 8.5 TFLs and 0.5 sacks. His stat line shows a forced fumble, fumble recovery, and 1 pass break up.
#44 Eriq George, DL: This team has a big/mean DL and George is one of their main dudes. The 280 pound lineman has a team high 12 TFLs and 5.5 sacks. He’s got 49 tackles in total to go with that. He has 9 QB hits and 1 forced fumble.
#12 Sanders Ellis, LB: A freshman LB who is having a great season, 2nd on the team in tackles with 71, he’s also got 11 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, and 3 pass breakups. He’s also forced 1 fumble this season.
#18 Keandre Booker, DL: A 240 pound d-lineman he’s got the most sacks on the team with 6.5, and a solid 11 TFLs as well. 35 total tackles, 7 QB hits, 1 forced and 1 fumble recovery.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
- Protect the QB. And ugh, what a top point after MSU was after Fife all day. This TSU D-line and their linebackers are very aggressive and statistically are a strong unit. They play a lot in the backfield and pile up the tackles for a loss. This defense will look to rattle and hit the QB so much and could feast on a gameplan like the one we saw against the cats.
- Don’t let 23 burn you. This TSU punt and kick unit scares me, especially against Montana’s really young corps of coverage units. This might be the best return man / return unit the Griz have faced. In a lot of TSU’s games they would win but be out-gained, why? Because their return units would flip the field a lot. If it’s me, I don’t give 23 a chance for a return, kick out of bounds, squib, send an extra gunner, something.
- Run. The. Damn. Ball. Feed Gillman and get the OL going up field. The Grizzlies apparently don’t trust the offense with vertical routes but all of the short screen passes and checks to the flat won’t amount to much unless if the running game can get in gear. I want 20 to 25 touches for #10.
- Win in the RZ – and force TSU to kick it. TSU’s kicking, statistically, isn’t great. They have an issue with missed kicks and RZ drives that end with no points, or no TDs at least. The Grizzly defense can go a long ways for this team if they can keep the Tigers from finding the endzone a lot.
- The Grizzlies have to take 5+ deep shots passing. I honestly don’t care if any work out. Teams just stack the box now and don’t fear anything laterally from Montana. TSU will see this on film. I think the Griz have to even just keep the honest with a few long shots.
- A positive turnover margin. Montana comes out ahead in all games when they’re in the positive I believe. The TSU QB has thrown a few picks and if the Griz can snag one or two that’ll stop a few drives – and hopefully help keep things in Montana’s favor.
- Keep TSU’s QB in the pocket. Don’t let a dual threat QB burn you with his feet as well.
This one… will be interesting. I think it’s going to be low scoring for a few reasons. First off, TSU is a defensive minded team and they want to slow the game down and limit possessions. Secondly, Montana could be without one of their two top RBs, one of their top WRs, and the health of their other WRs is kind of unknown. Add in TSU has a long trip and will be playing in colder weather with a kick time at 10:15 their time, and Montana is probably going to have a bit of a brawl loss hangover.
I know Griz fans wanted so much more from this team in the regular season but I really hope you all don’t punish this team, especially these seniors, by opting not to go. Night games can be a blast and who knows, maybe we’ll get some weather (some precipitation coming the day before currently). I know it’ll be a smaller crowd because of the holiday weekend, the late kick, and the cold – but I hope those who make it can get rowdy!
I think this will be a close one, I like Montana at home, but I expect a very fired up TSU to show up. They’ll be gunning for a major upset here. I’ll say Montana wins it to punch a ticket to SDSU, but it’s tight. Griz win, 24-17.
Go Griz!
