IdaGriz01
Well-known member
With five ranked vs ranked matchups, this was bound to be a stir-the-pot weekend. But who would have guessed that there would be three other losses to unranked opponents? That’s a total of eight (just under a third) of all the teams in the Top-25. Right off the bat, I see three teams that are likely to drop out, and possibly a fourth. But what will the pollsters do with teams that suddenly have losing records? Decision, decisions …
Rank Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 South Dakota State (3-1) [1]
#2 NDSU (4-1) [2]
#3 Montana State (5-0) [3]
#4 South Dakota (3-1) [5]
#5 Villanova (4-1) [6]
#6 Central Arkansas (4-1) [7]
#7 Idaho (3-2) [4]
#8 Montana (4-1) [8]
#9 North Dakota (4-1) [9]
#10 William & Mary (4-1) [11]
#11 Mercer(5-0) [12]
#12 SE Missouri State (4-1) [13]
#13 UC Davis (4-1) [14]
#14 Incarnate Word (2-2) [15]
#15 Tarleton State (4-1) [16]
#16 Abilene Christian (3-2) [20]
#17 Rhode Island (3-1) [22]
#18 Sacramento State (2-3) [10]
#19 New Hampshire (3-1) [24]
#20 ETSU (3-2) [NR]
#21 Richmond (3-2) [NR]
#22 Chattanooga (1-3) [NR]
#23 Illinois State (3-2) [18]
#24 Lamar (3-2) [19]
#25 Southern Illinois (2-3) [17]
Albany (1-3) [21]
Wofford (2-2) [23]
Weber State (2-3) [25]
The obvious first question is: How far will Idaho drop? Well, not enough for the Griz to move up. In fact, the pollsters may surprise us by dinging the Spuds even less than my guess. The next loss was Sac State … to unranked Northern Arizona by a bunch. I expect the pollsters to really hammer them down, perhaps even more than my guess.
But the real bloodbath started at #17, with Southern Illinois getting creamed at South Dakota. In past years, the pollsters have not punished a team too much when it loses to a highly-ranked opponent. Not so in this case, I suspect. First, they lost by a lot. Second, it leaves them with a losing record. And finally, the pollsters have tended to not give the Salukis much love. It would not surprise me if they dropped SIU out of the Top-25.
Illinois State also lost (at home) by a lot to a highly-ranked opponent. Still. I don’t think they’re in danger of dropping out of the Top-25. Lamar was another that lost to a Top-10 opponent. The fact that it was on the road will probably allow them to remain in the Top-25.
Albany has been hanging on in the Top-25, but they (and their 1-3 record) are gone after their loss to unranked Maine. At least Wofford lost to a ranked opponent. However, when you start at #23, you can’t afford any loss. Same goes for Weber State (#25).
With three teams expected to drop out, the pollsters must select replacements … presumably from among the top “Others Receiving Votes.” It also becomes a question as to where to put them.
For reasons that escape me, Chattanooga keeps receiving a lot of votes … enough to be just out of the Top-25 last week. Since they beat up on Portland State, I expect the pollsters to reward them. Next down was East Tennessee State. They too had a decisive win, so they should move up. Luckily, Northern Iowa was Idle, so I think the pollsters will move Ricgmond up after a nice win on the road at Elon.
Overall, I feel comfortable with these guesses, although not so much with the exact rankings. We shall see.
Rank Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 South Dakota State (3-1) [1]
#2 NDSU (4-1) [2]
#3 Montana State (5-0) [3]
#4 South Dakota (3-1) [5]
#5 Villanova (4-1) [6]
#6 Central Arkansas (4-1) [7]
#7 Idaho (3-2) [4]
#8 Montana (4-1) [8]
#9 North Dakota (4-1) [9]
#10 William & Mary (4-1) [11]
#11 Mercer(5-0) [12]
#12 SE Missouri State (4-1) [13]
#13 UC Davis (4-1) [14]
#14 Incarnate Word (2-2) [15]
#15 Tarleton State (4-1) [16]
#16 Abilene Christian (3-2) [20]
#17 Rhode Island (3-1) [22]
#18 Sacramento State (2-3) [10]
#19 New Hampshire (3-1) [24]
#20 ETSU (3-2) [NR]
#21 Richmond (3-2) [NR]
#22 Chattanooga (1-3) [NR]
#23 Illinois State (3-2) [18]
#24 Lamar (3-2) [19]
#25 Southern Illinois (2-3) [17]
Albany (1-3) [21]
Wofford (2-2) [23]
Weber State (2-3) [25]
The obvious first question is: How far will Idaho drop? Well, not enough for the Griz to move up. In fact, the pollsters may surprise us by dinging the Spuds even less than my guess. The next loss was Sac State … to unranked Northern Arizona by a bunch. I expect the pollsters to really hammer them down, perhaps even more than my guess.
But the real bloodbath started at #17, with Southern Illinois getting creamed at South Dakota. In past years, the pollsters have not punished a team too much when it loses to a highly-ranked opponent. Not so in this case, I suspect. First, they lost by a lot. Second, it leaves them with a losing record. And finally, the pollsters have tended to not give the Salukis much love. It would not surprise me if they dropped SIU out of the Top-25.
Illinois State also lost (at home) by a lot to a highly-ranked opponent. Still. I don’t think they’re in danger of dropping out of the Top-25. Lamar was another that lost to a Top-10 opponent. The fact that it was on the road will probably allow them to remain in the Top-25.
Albany has been hanging on in the Top-25, but they (and their 1-3 record) are gone after their loss to unranked Maine. At least Wofford lost to a ranked opponent. However, when you start at #23, you can’t afford any loss. Same goes for Weber State (#25).
With three teams expected to drop out, the pollsters must select replacements … presumably from among the top “Others Receiving Votes.” It also becomes a question as to where to put them.
For reasons that escape me, Chattanooga keeps receiving a lot of votes … enough to be just out of the Top-25 last week. Since they beat up on Portland State, I expect the pollsters to reward them. Next down was East Tennessee State. They too had a decisive win, so they should move up. Luckily, Northern Iowa was Idle, so I think the pollsters will move Ricgmond up after a nice win on the road at Elon.
Overall, I feel comfortable with these guesses, although not so much with the exact rankings. We shall see.
