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STATS Poll Guesses (Oct 30)

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
It’s no fun to do the poll guesses when the Griz lose, but here goes anyway.

Guess, Team, (Record), [Current Rank]
1 Sam Houston State (8-0) [1]
2 Jacksonville State (7-1) [2]
3 Eastern Washington (7-1) [3]
4 North Dakota State (7-1) [4]
5 Citadel (8-0) [5]
6 Richmond (7-1) [6]
7 James Madison (7-1) [8]
8 Charleston Southern (5-2) [9]
9 Chattanooga (8-1) [10]
10 Villanova (6-2) [11]
11 North Carolina A&T (7-1) [12]
12 Western Illinois (6-2) [13]
13 Cal Poly (6-2) [14]
14 South Dakota State (5-3) [7]
15 Youngstown State (6-2) [15]
16 North Dakota (7-2) [17]
17 Coastal Carolina (6-2) [18]
18 Central Arkansas (7-1) [19]
19 Grambling State (6-1) [21]
20 Samford (6-2) [20]
21 New Hampshire (6-3) [NR]
22 Montana (5-3) [16]
23 Harvard (6-1) [24]
24 Lehigh (7-2) [NR]
25 Albany (5-3) [NR]

NR Stony Brook (5-5) [22]
NR Eastern Illinois (5-4) [23]
NR Tennessee State (5-3) [25]


Given that the Griz were playing the #3 team at their place, they might not fall quite as far as I dropped them. However, losing by nearly 20 points doesn’t look so hot, so they might even drop another spot. But that puts them right in among other 3- and 2-loss teams, so that looks about right.

I think the pollsters will hit SDSU pretty hard (maybe even harder than I have). They were on the road, but they got thumped by a team that still has a losing record after pulling off the upset. Not good.

I left Samford at the same spot because they played Mississippi State pretty tough before running out of gas. Of course, Miss State isn’t a very good FBS team, but still …

I’m pretty sure the pollsters will drop the three teams at the bottom of the list that lost. So I needed three candidates to take their places. Trouble is, five of the teams lurking just out of the top-25 also lost. Anyway, I gave UNH the biggest bump out of the “Others Receiving Votes” because they absolutely pounded #22 Stony Brook. I stuck the other two in at the bottom, but I could see Lehigh moving a bit higher.
 
22 seems right. Computer ranking is at 25. Griz also on two game skid. 22-24 is possible. I don't expect if they win out to climb any higher either. Too weak SOS remaining, not enough possible major upsets ahead.
 
RayWill said:
22 seems right. Computer ranking is at 25. Griz also on two game skid. 22-24 is possible. I don't expect if they win out to climb any higher either. Too weak SOS remaining, not enough possible major upsets ahead.

That would imply that no teams in front of them lose in the next three weeks.

My guess is if the Griz win out they will be ranked between 10 and 14. With 24 teams in the playoffs and teams like Grambling skipping the playoffs. Griz will host agame.
 
Paytonlives said:
Griz will be 19 or 20. A lot of teams below them lost.
Could be. However, the teams below them that lost were pretty far below them, and the closest, Samford (#20), lost to an FBS. So the next was #22 Stony Brook. If the general pollster rules work, the Griz will fall 5 or 6 spots ... because all the other teams below them in the 17-21 range won. So I can see maybe #21, but nothing higher than that. Reinforcing the notion of #21 is that New Hampshire (my "guessed" #21) was not in the top-25 last week, so they may not jump that high.
 
Paytonlives said:
RayWill said:
22 seems right. Computer ranking is at 25. Griz also on two game skid. 22-24 is possible. I don't expect if they win out to climb any higher either. Too weak SOS remaining, not enough possible major upsets ahead.
That would imply that no teams in front of them lose in the next three weeks.

My guess is if the Griz win out they will be ranked between 10 and 14. With 24 teams in the playoffs and teams like Grambling skipping the playoffs. Griz will host a game.
Actually, there are three currently-ranked team that must be removed from the equation. Grambling (now #21) is one. But if North Carolina A&T (#12 and currently leading the MEAC) wins the conference -- as expected -- they will play the SWAC winner in the post-season “Challenge” bowl. And Coastal Carolina (#18) is a transitional “Independent” this year, and ineligible for the 1-AA playoffs.

As for teams ahead of the Griz losing (or not). Assuming my guesses are reasonably good, and the Griz fall to 21-22, here’s what the schedules look like for teams that are likely to be not too far ahead of them.

10 Chattanooga plays Wofford and at Alabama … they will lose one and could lose both.
11 Villanova plays at Maine, home against #8 JMU, and at Delaware. One likely loss, maybe two.
13 Western Illinois plays (home) Illinois State and UNI, and at SIU. One likely loss, maybe two.
14 Cal Poly plays (home) EWU and NoCol, and at Weber. One likely loss, maybe two.
15 Youngstown State plays SIU at home, NDSU and Missouri State on the road. One likely loss, maybe two.
17 North Dakota plays NAU at home, NoCol on the road. Could easily lose one or both.
19 Central Arkansas plays Nicholls at home, but #1 SHSU on the road. One very likely loss.
20 Samford plays Mercer at home, Citadel and East Tenn State on the road. One likely loss.
(21, guess) New Hampshire plays Albany and at Maine. One likely loss, maybe two.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Paytonlives said:
RayWill said:
22 seems right. Computer ranking is at 25. Griz also on two game skid. 22-24 is possible. I don't expect if they win out to climb any higher either. Too weak SOS remaining, not enough possible major upsets ahead.
That would imply that no teams in front of them lose in the next three weeks.

My guess is if the Griz win out they will be ranked between 10 and 14. With 24 teams in the playoffs and teams like Grambling skipping the playoffs. Griz will host a game.
Actually, there are three currently-ranked team that must be removed from the equation. Grambling (now #21) is one. But if North Carolina A&T (#12 and currently leading the MEAC) wins the conference -- as expected -- they will play the SWAC winner in the post-season “Challenge” bowl. And Coastal Carolina (#18) is a transitional “Independent” this year, and ineligible for the 1-AA playoffs.

As for teams ahead of the Griz losing (or not). Assuming my guesses are reasonably good, and the Griz fall to 21-22, here’s what the schedules look like for teams that are likely to be not too far ahead of them.

10 Chattanooga plays Wofford and at Alabama … they will lose one and could lose both.
11 Villanova plays at Maine, home against #8 JMU, and at Delaware. One likely loss, maybe two.
13 Western Illinois plays (home) Illinois State and UNI, and at SIU. One likely loss, maybe two.
14 Cal Poly plays (home) EWU and NoCol, and at Weber. One likely loss, maybe two.
15 Youngstown State plays SIU at home, NDSU and Missouri State on the road. One likely loss, maybe two.
17 North Dakota plays NAU at home, NoCol on the road. Could easily lose one or both.
19 Central Arkansas plays Nicholls at home, but #1 SHSU on the road. One very likely loss.
20 Samford plays Mercer at home, Citadel and East Tenn State on the road. One likely loss.
(21, guess) New Hampshire plays Albany and at Maine. One likely loss, maybe two.

Most of those would drop to position still higher than the Griz. Still not likely to climb out of upper teens. Forgot about the Swac and MEAC creating own mini bowl or whatever it is, schools not being in playoffs that adds a wrinkle or two. Still a bottom of pile playoff selection.
 
HookedonGriz said:
IdaGriz01 said:
HookedonGriz said:
Griz at 19 according to a Kyle sample tweet.
Which poll? STATS rankings not up yet. Something called "College Sports Madness" has the Griz at #17.
My bad, just found it....that was Athalon, not STATS
Gotcha. Those numbers are way better than my guess yesterday (predicting #22 in STATS). STATS should be out in the next 45 min or so. Gonna be very interesting.
 
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