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STATS Poll Guesses (Oct 2)

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
With seven ranked teams losing, there’s bound to be some stirring of the pot in the next poll. Plus, with #8 Western Illinois losing, the Griz should jog up a slot into the top-10 (but could move up one more, see below).

Guess, Team, (Record), [Current Rank]
1 North Dakota State (4-0) [1]
2 Sam Houston State (4-0) [2]
3 Jacksonville State (3-1) [3]
4 Eastern Washington (4-1) [4]
5 Chattanooga (5-0) [5]
6 Richmond (4-1) [6]
7 James Madison (4-1) [7]
8 Citadel (4-0) [9]
9 Charleston Southern (3-2) [10]
10 Montana (3-1) [11]
11 Northern Iowa (2-2) [12]
12 South Dakota State (2-2) [15]
13 Villanova (4-1) [17]
14 Western Illinois (3-1) [8]
15 Youngstown State (3-1) [20]
16 Albany (4-0) [21]
17 Coastal Carolina (3-2) [14]
18 North Carolina A&T (3-1) [22]
19 Eastern Illinois (3-2) [13]
20 McNeese (3-2) [23]
21 Grambling State (4-1) [NR]
22 Harvard (3-0) [25]
23 Illinois State (2-3) [18]
24 Cal Poly (3-2) [16]
25 William & Mary (2-3) [19]

NR Indiana State (3-2) [24]

Despite the number of losses, I still only see one team dropping out of the top-25. When you’re sitting at #24 and lose, you’re toast -- especially when you lose to a team that got no votes in the last poll. Can’t quite figure the deal with Missouri State, BTW. Their only loss was to an FBS: Yet no votes?

With one dropping out, I needed a replacement of course … and that turned out to be a problem. Of the top seven “Other” vote getters in the last poll, five lost and one was idle. So it came down between Stony Brook (2-2), which was idle, and Grambling State (4-1), which won and whose only loss was to a decent FBS team. So I went with Grambling. However, it would not at all surprise me to see Missouri State jump into the top-25 despite getting no votes in the last poll.

Most of the other drops for teams that lost are pretty “standard” -- that being generally about six spots. (Which kept Cal Poly in, but it was close.) I cut Coastal Carolina some slack, however, since they lost to a top-10 team … in double-OT on a blocked PAT.

Which brings up the possibility that the Griz might jump over Charleston Southern because of their close shave. CSU only received 168 votes more than UM (out of about 2400) in the last poll. So the Griz moving into the 9 spot would be no great surprise
 
NorthEndZoneDan said:
I could see Villanova moving up a little higher. Not real sure we are top 10, yet.
With their record, it would not surprise me if 'Nova moved ahead of SDSU. But these days the pollsters love the MVFC (like they used to the CAA), so -- while I considered that move -- I left it alone.
 
Nodak78 said:
You left out UND. Just saying
No place to put them ... and they only got 40 points in last week's poll. But I considered dropping CP and putting UND in their place -- but the pollsters very seldom do that. That will be one of the more interesting aspects of the next poll.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Nodak78 said:
You left out UND. Just saying
No place to put them ... and they only got 40 points in last week's poll. But I considered dropping CP and putting UND in their place -- but the pollsters very seldom do that. That will be one of the more interesting aspects of the next poll.
Take a look at EIU and tell why they should be in the after last week. :shock:
 
Nodak78 said:
IdaGriz01 said:
Nodak78 said:
You left out UND. Just saying
No place to put them ... and they only got 40 points in last week's poll. But I considered dropping CP and putting UND in their place -- but the pollsters very seldom do that. That will be one of the more interesting aspects of the next poll.
Take a look at EIU and tell why they should be in the after last week. :shock:
Because, based on past voting, it seems like many pollsters can't be bothered with really digging into the actual records of each team. They just tweak their last list based on the latest results ... and send it off.

A reminder on the "rules" of this little game I made up: My predictions are not (necessarily) what I, personally, would do if I were a poll voter. They're what I'm guessing the pollsters will do. For example, given a choice, my list would drop Illinois State, which as now lost three in a row, out of the top-25 altogether. And maybe the pollsters will do that, but I would be mildly surprised if they do.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Nodak78 said:
IdaGriz01 said:
Nodak78 said:
You left out UND. Just saying
No place to put them ... and they only got 40 points in last week's poll. But I considered dropping CP and putting UND in their place -- but the pollsters very seldom do that. That will be one of the more interesting aspects of the next poll.
Take a look at EIU and tell why they should be in the after last week. :shock:
Because, based on past voting, it seems like many pollsters can't be bothered with really digging into the actual records of each team. They just tweak their last list based on the latest results ... and send it off.

A reminder on the "rules" of this little game I made up: My predictions are not (necessarily) what I, personally, would do if I were a poll voter. They're what I'm guessing the pollsters will do. For example, given a choice, my list would drop Illinois State, which as now lost three in a row, out of the top-25 altogether. And maybe the pollsters will do that, but I would be mildly surprised if they do.
I get what your saying and understand. But the polling is biased because of the laziness.
 
Nodak78 said:
... I get what your saying and understand. But the polling is biased because of the laziness.
Truer words were never spoken :thumb:

Still, outside some glaring anomalies, the poll(s) provide a general notion of who the best teams are. They do give fans something to discuss (bitch about?) during those long, bleak spans between actual game days. And the rankings do seem to get better as the season progresses. But to hyper-ventilate about the difference between a #9 and a #12 ranking is just a waste energy.

Of course, none of that stops anybody. :lol: :lol:
 
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