IdaGriz01
Well-known member
With eight ranked teams idle, the five losses among the remaining teams will certainly shuffle things around some. However, I don’t think the pollsters will do anything too dramatic.
Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 South Dakota State (6-1) [2]
#2 NDSU (5-2) [1]
#3 Montana State (6-1) [4]
#4 Sacramento State (6-0) [5]
#5 Weber State (6-0) [6]
#6 Holy Cross (6-0) [7]
#7 Incarnate Word (6-1) [8]
#8 Montana (5-1) [3]
#9 Jackson State (6-0) [8]
#10 Chattanooga (5-1) [10]
#11 William & Mary (5-1) [11]
#12 Mercer (6-1) [12]
#13 Delaware (5-1) [13]
#14 Samford (5-1) [15]
#15 Southern Illinois (5-2) [16]
#16 SE Missouri State (5-1) [18]
#17 Elon (5-2) [14]
#18 Richmond (4-2) [21]
#19 UT Martin (4-2) [19]
#20 North Dakota (5-2) [20]
#21 Villanova (3-3) [17]
#22 Fordham (6-1) [22]
#23 Rhode Island (4-2) [25]
#24 Austin Peay (5-2) [24]
#25 Idaho (4-2) NR
SE Louisiana (3-3) [25]
Eastern Kentucky (3-3) [23]
First off, I expect the pollsters will simply swap the top two. The only interesting point will be how they split the first-place votes. That, of course, means I don’t expect Montana State to squeak into the #2 spot … almost 120 points separated the kitties from #2 in last week’s poll.
So then the question becomes: How far will the Griz drop? I’m guessing five spots. Even if that’s too optimistic, I don’t see the Griz dropping any further than maybe #12. FWIW: The fact that Idaho was unranked is deceiving. The Vandals have been getting votes for several weeks now, and have come close to making the top-25. Some pollsters are probably aware that their two losses were to FBS teams. In a fair world, Idaho should move into a reasonably high spot … say #20, which would fit their W-L record. But the polls are not fair, and I have the Spuds just barely making it into the top-25. I wouldn’t mind being wrong on that.
The next upset to consider was the loss by #14 Elon to #25 Rhode Island. That being a road game and a margin of just a touchdown, I’m guessing they’ll be down by only three spots. That keeps them just ahead of my guess for Richmond, whom they beat last week. By rights, Rhode Island should get a big bump, but the pollsters have seemed not too impressed by the Rams. (It doesn’t help to feast on the likes of Bryant and Brown.) Thus, I do not expect much of a boost for them.
I do believe the pollsters will reward #21 Richmond for knocking off #17 Villanova. On the other side, I think ‘Nova will drop only four spots. (FYI: My general rule of thumb is that a loss to a ranked team usually causes a drop of three or four spots.) However, that (3-3) record for the Wildcata looks out of place … they could easily go down another spot or two.
The final loss, by Eastern Kentucky to unranked SHSU, will surely knock them out of the top-25. I’m also guessing that the pollster will break the #25 tie … leaving idle SE Louisiana out.
Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 South Dakota State (6-1) [2]
#2 NDSU (5-2) [1]
#3 Montana State (6-1) [4]
#4 Sacramento State (6-0) [5]
#5 Weber State (6-0) [6]
#6 Holy Cross (6-0) [7]
#7 Incarnate Word (6-1) [8]
#8 Montana (5-1) [3]
#9 Jackson State (6-0) [8]
#10 Chattanooga (5-1) [10]
#11 William & Mary (5-1) [11]
#12 Mercer (6-1) [12]
#13 Delaware (5-1) [13]
#14 Samford (5-1) [15]
#15 Southern Illinois (5-2) [16]
#16 SE Missouri State (5-1) [18]
#17 Elon (5-2) [14]
#18 Richmond (4-2) [21]
#19 UT Martin (4-2) [19]
#20 North Dakota (5-2) [20]
#21 Villanova (3-3) [17]
#22 Fordham (6-1) [22]
#23 Rhode Island (4-2) [25]
#24 Austin Peay (5-2) [24]
#25 Idaho (4-2) NR
SE Louisiana (3-3) [25]
Eastern Kentucky (3-3) [23]
First off, I expect the pollsters will simply swap the top two. The only interesting point will be how they split the first-place votes. That, of course, means I don’t expect Montana State to squeak into the #2 spot … almost 120 points separated the kitties from #2 in last week’s poll.
So then the question becomes: How far will the Griz drop? I’m guessing five spots. Even if that’s too optimistic, I don’t see the Griz dropping any further than maybe #12. FWIW: The fact that Idaho was unranked is deceiving. The Vandals have been getting votes for several weeks now, and have come close to making the top-25. Some pollsters are probably aware that their two losses were to FBS teams. In a fair world, Idaho should move into a reasonably high spot … say #20, which would fit their W-L record. But the polls are not fair, and I have the Spuds just barely making it into the top-25. I wouldn’t mind being wrong on that.
The next upset to consider was the loss by #14 Elon to #25 Rhode Island. That being a road game and a margin of just a touchdown, I’m guessing they’ll be down by only three spots. That keeps them just ahead of my guess for Richmond, whom they beat last week. By rights, Rhode Island should get a big bump, but the pollsters have seemed not too impressed by the Rams. (It doesn’t help to feast on the likes of Bryant and Brown.) Thus, I do not expect much of a boost for them.
I do believe the pollsters will reward #21 Richmond for knocking off #17 Villanova. On the other side, I think ‘Nova will drop only four spots. (FYI: My general rule of thumb is that a loss to a ranked team usually causes a drop of three or four spots.) However, that (3-3) record for the Wildcata looks out of place … they could easily go down another spot or two.
The final loss, by Eastern Kentucky to unranked SHSU, will surely knock them out of the top-25. I’m also guessing that the pollster will break the #25 tie … leaving idle SE Louisiana out.
