IdaGriz01
Well-known member
Of course, four ranked teams were going to lose, being matched against other ranked teams. The pollsters, as a general rule, do not punish the losers too much in such cases … unless they get thumped. But besides those losses, we had two other ranked teams lose to unranked opponents. So we can expect to see a number of changes, but nothing really dramatic.
Poll
Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 SHSU (4-0) [1]
#2 South Dakota State (4-0) [2]
#3 JMU (4-0) [3]
#4 NDSU (4-0) [5]
#5 EWU (5-0) [6]
#6 Southern Illinois (4-1) [7]
#7 UC Davis (5-0) [8]
#8 Montana (3-1) [4]
#9 Delaware (3-1) [9]
#10 Montana State (4-1) [11]
#11 Villanova (3-1) [12]
#12 East Tennessee State (5-0) [13]
#13 North Dakota (2-2) [10]
#14 SE Louisiana (3-1) [14]
#15 Northern Iowa (3-1) [15]
#16 Missouri State (3-1) [16]
#17 Weber State (2-3) [19]
#18 Kennesaw State (3-1) [20]
#19 Rhode Island (4-0) [21]
#20 UT Martin (3-1) [23]
#21 Incarnate Word (4-1) [24]
#22 Jacksonville State (2-3) [17]
#23 VMI (3-2) [18]
#24 Central Arkansas (2-3) NR
#25 Monmouth (3-2) NR
NR Richmond (2-3) [22]
NR New Hampshire (3-2) [25]
The Griz-Eagle matchup was competitive enough that I do not see UM dropping a lot. In fact, I considered a drop only to #7. But that would have put them ahead of teams with undefeated FCS records (SIU’s only loss was to FBS Kansas State). They might slip one more, but I do not see them dropping out of the top-10.
Along those lines, I dropped North Dakota only three spots because they played a much higher ranked opponent and the game was close all the way. However, since they were at home, a drop to #14 would not surprise me.
I think the pollsters will not be so kind to Jacksonville State, which lost by over three touchdowns. Yes, they lost to a ranked team, but it’s their second loss in a row. I could easily see them dropping one or two more spots, although I’d be surprised if they dropped out of the top-25.
I expect the pollsters to drop VMI at least five spots after their loss to an unranked and basically mediocre Citadel (2-2) team. In fact, it would not surprise me to see them go down one or two more spots, although not all the way out of the top-25.
Now it gets a bit problematic. By my standard formula, Richmond most likely will drop out of the top-25 because they lost decisively at home to a not-very-good Elon (2-3) team. New Hampshire should also drop out, although they had a very close loss at home to the best team in the CAA. However, even that isn’t usually enough when a team is in the tail-end spot of the top-25. My wife did remind me that I’ve been burned before by a CAA (east coast) bias among the pollsters. Still, I’m sticking with those guesses … but won’t be shocked if one, or both, is/are wrong.
That left me to decide who might replace the two drop-outs. That problem was compounded by the fact that the top four “Other” vote-getters in the last poll all lost. Luckily, the next two – Monmouth and Central Arkansas – both won. They also had a bit extra going for them … both have been ranked in earlier polls. In my experience, the pollsters seem to favor that: “See, they’re really good teams that just had a bad game along the way.”
Poll
Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 SHSU (4-0) [1]
#2 South Dakota State (4-0) [2]
#3 JMU (4-0) [3]
#4 NDSU (4-0) [5]
#5 EWU (5-0) [6]
#6 Southern Illinois (4-1) [7]
#7 UC Davis (5-0) [8]
#8 Montana (3-1) [4]
#9 Delaware (3-1) [9]
#10 Montana State (4-1) [11]
#11 Villanova (3-1) [12]
#12 East Tennessee State (5-0) [13]
#13 North Dakota (2-2) [10]
#14 SE Louisiana (3-1) [14]
#15 Northern Iowa (3-1) [15]
#16 Missouri State (3-1) [16]
#17 Weber State (2-3) [19]
#18 Kennesaw State (3-1) [20]
#19 Rhode Island (4-0) [21]
#20 UT Martin (3-1) [23]
#21 Incarnate Word (4-1) [24]
#22 Jacksonville State (2-3) [17]
#23 VMI (3-2) [18]
#24 Central Arkansas (2-3) NR
#25 Monmouth (3-2) NR
NR Richmond (2-3) [22]
NR New Hampshire (3-2) [25]
The Griz-Eagle matchup was competitive enough that I do not see UM dropping a lot. In fact, I considered a drop only to #7. But that would have put them ahead of teams with undefeated FCS records (SIU’s only loss was to FBS Kansas State). They might slip one more, but I do not see them dropping out of the top-10.
Along those lines, I dropped North Dakota only three spots because they played a much higher ranked opponent and the game was close all the way. However, since they were at home, a drop to #14 would not surprise me.
I think the pollsters will not be so kind to Jacksonville State, which lost by over three touchdowns. Yes, they lost to a ranked team, but it’s their second loss in a row. I could easily see them dropping one or two more spots, although I’d be surprised if they dropped out of the top-25.
I expect the pollsters to drop VMI at least five spots after their loss to an unranked and basically mediocre Citadel (2-2) team. In fact, it would not surprise me to see them go down one or two more spots, although not all the way out of the top-25.
Now it gets a bit problematic. By my standard formula, Richmond most likely will drop out of the top-25 because they lost decisively at home to a not-very-good Elon (2-3) team. New Hampshire should also drop out, although they had a very close loss at home to the best team in the CAA. However, even that isn’t usually enough when a team is in the tail-end spot of the top-25. My wife did remind me that I’ve been burned before by a CAA (east coast) bias among the pollsters. Still, I’m sticking with those guesses … but won’t be shocked if one, or both, is/are wrong.
That left me to decide who might replace the two drop-outs. That problem was compounded by the fact that the top four “Other” vote-getters in the last poll all lost. Luckily, the next two – Monmouth and Central Arkansas – both won. They also had a bit extra going for them … both have been ranked in earlier polls. In my experience, the pollsters seem to favor that: “See, they’re really good teams that just had a bad game along the way.”
