IdaGriz01
Well-known member
Just under a third (8) of the ranked team lost Saturday, five of them to unranked opponents. Thus, there’s bound to be a lot of movement in the next poll. Beyond that, however, we’re at a key point in the season. Many teams are either at or over half way through their schedules. That beg’s the question: Should any team with a losing record, even if they played a tough schedule, be in the top-25? History generally says … “No.”
Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 Sam Houston State (5-0) [1]
#2 EWU (7-0) [2]
#3 NDSU (6-0) [3]
#4 So. Illinois (6-1) [4]
#5 Villanova (5-1) [6]
#6 SDSU (5-1) [7]
#7 James Madison (5-1) [8]
#8 Montana State (6-1) [9]
#9 SE Louisiana [11]
#10 UC Davis (6-1) [13]
#11 Kennesaw State (5-1) [15]
#12 Montana (4-2) [5]
#13 UT Martin (5-1) [17]
#14 Incarnate Word (5-1) [18]
#15 Missouri State (4-2) [20]
#16 ESTU (6-1) [10]
#17 South Dakota (5-2) [21]
#18 Rhode Island (5-1) [12]
#19 Sacramento State (4-2) NR
#20 UNI (3-3) [16]
#21 Delaware (3-3) [14]
#22 Jacksonville State (3-3) [24]
#23 Princeton (5-0) [25]
#24 VMI (5-2) NR
#25 Dartmouth (5-0) NR
New Hampshire (3-3) [23]
North Dakota (2-4) [22]
Weber State (2-4) [19]
Of course, most of us are most interested in how far the Griz will drop. Since Sac State was unranked (more on that in a bit), my “formula” dictates around 6 to 7 spots … so I used #12. For those who assert that the Griz shouldn’t be that high … “You should get out more.” That is, take a look at some other top to mid-level FCS teams. We have, and many of those other programs are not the world-beaters that some seem to feel they are. They all have weaknesses. So I think #12 would be a fair place for the Griz to end up right now.
ETSU was the next ranked team to go down. I used my standard formula, but Chattanooga (3-3) is probably a better team than their record suggests, and the game was pretty close. Thus, I can see ETSU coming in at maybe a spot higher.
The same cannot be said for Rhode Island. They have not played a particularly tough schedule and their loss to Towson (3-3) was not that close. In fact, the Rhodies didn’t score at all after the first quarter. A drop to #19 would not surprise me at all.
For much the same reasons, I pushed Delaware down an extra spot. Stony Brook (2-5) is not even a mediocre team, yet they won decisively.
Given how the pollsters seem to treat Northern Iowa (well, usually), they might not drop quite as far as I project after losing to a ranked team (even though South Dakota was ranked lower than UNI).
Next, we come to Weber State (2-4). Yes, they played MSU close. However, the reality is that they have won only two games, against teams with a combined record of (1-11). If they’re ranked in the next poll, then there’s more wrong with the polling system than we ever thought. Next, I tried to outguess the collective mind of the pollsters, always a scary endeavor. But I decided that the pollsters would reward Sac State and slotted them in where Weber had been. Their (4-2) record looks pretty reasonable where that puts them. And, yes, I could easily see the pollsters drop the Griz another spot and put Sac State just ahead.
North Dakota most likely will get hit with a double whammy. Ranked #22, they couldn’t afford any loss, even to a highly ranked opponent. They now also have a losing (2-4) record, so they’ll surely drop out of the top-25.
Similarly, #23 New Hampshire (3-3) couldn’t afford a loss either, even though Dartmouth (5-0) was a very credible opponent. They will most likely drop off the bottom.
Those two drops required two additions. Eastern Kentucky and VMI both won road games and moved to (5-2) records. I thought about moving them into the top-25, but decided the pollsters might reward Dartmouth for going into New Hampshire and knocking them off. VMI has a better Sagarin ranking and SOS than Eastern Kentucky, and won much more decisively. So, I put VMI back in the top-25.
Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 Sam Houston State (5-0) [1]
#2 EWU (7-0) [2]
#3 NDSU (6-0) [3]
#4 So. Illinois (6-1) [4]
#5 Villanova (5-1) [6]
#6 SDSU (5-1) [7]
#7 James Madison (5-1) [8]
#8 Montana State (6-1) [9]
#9 SE Louisiana [11]
#10 UC Davis (6-1) [13]
#11 Kennesaw State (5-1) [15]
#12 Montana (4-2) [5]
#13 UT Martin (5-1) [17]
#14 Incarnate Word (5-1) [18]
#15 Missouri State (4-2) [20]
#16 ESTU (6-1) [10]
#17 South Dakota (5-2) [21]
#18 Rhode Island (5-1) [12]
#19 Sacramento State (4-2) NR
#20 UNI (3-3) [16]
#21 Delaware (3-3) [14]
#22 Jacksonville State (3-3) [24]
#23 Princeton (5-0) [25]
#24 VMI (5-2) NR
#25 Dartmouth (5-0) NR
New Hampshire (3-3) [23]
North Dakota (2-4) [22]
Weber State (2-4) [19]
Of course, most of us are most interested in how far the Griz will drop. Since Sac State was unranked (more on that in a bit), my “formula” dictates around 6 to 7 spots … so I used #12. For those who assert that the Griz shouldn’t be that high … “You should get out more.” That is, take a look at some other top to mid-level FCS teams. We have, and many of those other programs are not the world-beaters that some seem to feel they are. They all have weaknesses. So I think #12 would be a fair place for the Griz to end up right now.
ETSU was the next ranked team to go down. I used my standard formula, but Chattanooga (3-3) is probably a better team than their record suggests, and the game was pretty close. Thus, I can see ETSU coming in at maybe a spot higher.
The same cannot be said for Rhode Island. They have not played a particularly tough schedule and their loss to Towson (3-3) was not that close. In fact, the Rhodies didn’t score at all after the first quarter. A drop to #19 would not surprise me at all.
For much the same reasons, I pushed Delaware down an extra spot. Stony Brook (2-5) is not even a mediocre team, yet they won decisively.
Given how the pollsters seem to treat Northern Iowa (well, usually), they might not drop quite as far as I project after losing to a ranked team (even though South Dakota was ranked lower than UNI).
Next, we come to Weber State (2-4). Yes, they played MSU close. However, the reality is that they have won only two games, against teams with a combined record of (1-11). If they’re ranked in the next poll, then there’s more wrong with the polling system than we ever thought. Next, I tried to outguess the collective mind of the pollsters, always a scary endeavor. But I decided that the pollsters would reward Sac State and slotted them in where Weber had been. Their (4-2) record looks pretty reasonable where that puts them. And, yes, I could easily see the pollsters drop the Griz another spot and put Sac State just ahead.
North Dakota most likely will get hit with a double whammy. Ranked #22, they couldn’t afford any loss, even to a highly ranked opponent. They now also have a losing (2-4) record, so they’ll surely drop out of the top-25.
Similarly, #23 New Hampshire (3-3) couldn’t afford a loss either, even though Dartmouth (5-0) was a very credible opponent. They will most likely drop off the bottom.
Those two drops required two additions. Eastern Kentucky and VMI both won road games and moved to (5-2) records. I thought about moving them into the top-25, but decided the pollsters might reward Dartmouth for going into New Hampshire and knocking them off. VMI has a better Sagarin ranking and SOS than Eastern Kentucky, and won much more decisively. So, I put VMI back in the top-25.
uke:
:lol:
