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STATS FCS Poll Guesses (November 13)

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
Two losses in the top-10 will certainly stir that part of the pot. But the bottom will be totally crazy: five of the six lowest ranked teams lost. That’s surely going to open up some spots for new teams to move into the top-25.

Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 Sam Houston (9-0) [1]
#2 JMU (9-1) [2]
#3 Montana State (9-1) [3]
#4 NDSU (9-1) [5]
#5 EWU (8-2) [7]
#6 Villanova (8-2) [8]
#7 SDSU (7-3) [4]
#8 Montana (8-2) [9]
#9 UC Davis (8-2) [6]
#10 Kennesaw State (9-1) [10]
#11 ETSU (9-1) [11]
#12 Sacramento State (8-2) [12]
#13 UT Martin (9-1) [13]
#14 SE Louisiana (8-2) [14]
#15 Southern Illinois (7-3) [15]
#16 Missouri State (7-3) [16]
#17 Incarnate Word (8-2) [17]
#18 Jackson State (9-1) [18]
#19 South Dakota (7-3) [19]
#20 Dartmouth (8-1) [22]
#21 Mercer (7-2) NR
#22 Princeton (8-1) NR
#23 Rhode Island (7-3) NR
#24 Florida A&M (8-2) NR
#25 UNI (5-5) [20]

NR VMI (6-4) [21]
NR Chattanooga (6-4) [22]
NR Prairie View A&M (7-2) [24]
NR William & Mary (6-4) [25]

For Griz fans (that’s us :) ), the crucial question is: How far will SDSU and UC Davis drop? Considering how SDSU lost, I’m guessing three spots. That leaves them just ahead of the Griz even though they have one more loss. Not sure which way the pollsters will go. However, since I want the Griz to be one spot higher, I’d rather not be disappointed. I also guessed three spots for UC Davis, which does move them just below the Griz.

Barring a dramatic or substantial win, the pollsters (as a group) seldom jump a team over other ranked teams that also won. Thus, I do not see Sac State moving at all.

Then we get to the big block of losers at the bottom: Three of them lost to unranked opponents and will certainly drop out. Although William & Mary lost to a highly ranked opponent (#2 JMU), their position at #25 almost certainly means they will also drop out. Northern Iowa lost to a mid-ranked opponent and will drop some … but probably not out of the top-25, despite their 5-5 record. In fact, since it is UNI, they may not drop as far as I moved them.

So, who to move in, and where? The choices were simple, because the top “Others Receiving Votes” all won. Thus, in effect, Mercer “replaced” Chattanooga from the SoCon, and Florida A&M replaced Prairie View A&M from the SWAC. And Princeton’s solid win should move them back in. The only trade-off I had to make was between Rhode Island and Stephen F. Austin, both of which had solid wins. I finally went with the Rhodies because (1) the pollsters will know they have an FBS win, and (2) one of SFA’s wins was over a pathetic D-II opponent.
 
Would love to see SFA in as #25 but that would mean UNI would be out of the top 25 and the pollsters could never have that.
 
How can they keep SacSt below Davis? Davis was embarrassed at home and has a loss to ISU. I've contended since they beat us that SacSt is best team in the BSC.
 
kemajic said:
How can they keep SacSt below Davis? Davis was embarrassed at home and has a loss to ISU. I've contended since they beat us that SacSt is best team in the BSC.

They play this weekend, so it will be determined on the field. But yes I think Sac is the better team
 
fltheadgriz said:
Would love to see SFA in as #25 but that would mean UNI would be out of the top 25 and the pollsters could never have that.
For sure not based on past history. :(
 
kemajic said:
How can they keep SacSt below Davis? Davis was embarrassed at home and has a loss to ISU. I've contended since they beat us that SacSt is best team in the BSC.
No disagreement here.

And here's an interesting thought: Enough pollsters may decide to swap the two. That is, Sac State to #9 (or even #8, just ahead of the Griz) and UCD to #12. I have seen that happen, although not for a long time (years). It's like the voters think to themselves: "Well, we've got these slots that kinda belong to the Big Sky right now. What order shall we plug in the teams?" I have no records to prove anything, but I have a vague recollection that they once did something like that with the CAA.
 
dupuyer griz said:
No movement for South Dakota after a pretty big win?

My guess is they will take into account that SDSU had the game won and chose not to punt but instead run the clock out on 4th down leading to a review, 1 second on the clock, and a very lucky heave to the end zone in a rivalry game. Though I agree the griz at 8-2 should be ahead of the jackrabbits at 7-3, Ida is probably spot on as usual.
 
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