IdaGriz01
Well-known member
With ten ranked teams going down, five of them to unranked opponents, we can expect some big changes in the next poll. It will be interesting to see how that plays out. That includes the fact that, in the past couple of weeks, the pollsters have shown a tendency to drop losers more than my old rules suggested.
Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 Sam Houston (8-0) [1]
#2 James Madison (8-1) [3]
#3 Montana State (8-1) [4]
#4 South Dakota State (7-2) [9]
#5 NDSU (8-1) [2]
#6 UC Davis (8-1) [8]
#7 Villanova (7-2) [10]
#8 EWU (7-2) [5]
#9 Montana (7-2) [11]
#10 SE Louisiana (7-2) [6]
#11 Kennesaw State (8-1) [12]
#12 Southern Illinois (6-3) [7]
#13 East Tennessee State (8-1) [14]
#14 UT Martin (8-1) [15]
#15 Sacramento State (7-2) [16]
#16 Missouri State (6-3) [17]
#17 Incarnate Word (7-2) [22]
#18 Northern Iowa (5-4) [13]
#19 Jackson State (8-1) [19]
#20 Dartmouth (7-1) NR
#21 South Dakota (6-3) [23]
#22 Rhode Island (6-3) NR
#23 Stephen F. Austin (6-3) NR
#24 VMI (6-3) [18]
#25 Harvard (6-2) NR
Princeton (7-1) [20]
William & Mary (6-3) [20]
Weber State (4-5) [24]
Eastern Kentucky (6-3) [25]
The first obvious question is: How far will NDSU fall? Three spots and the block of losses for #5-#7 makes it possible to lift SDSU all the way to #4 … just ahead of NDSU. I think that’s how the pollsters will see it.
Next in line is EWU. Two losses in a row, one of them to a questionable Weber State team, could hurt them badly. However, to drop them more than my guess would put them below the Griz … and I do not see that happening.
Since SELA lost to a ranked team, they should not drop too much. I guessed four spots, which keeps them barely in the top-10. With their (7-2) record, just below the Griz with the same record, I like where this guess puts them. However, this could be one of those cases where the pollsters dish out extra punishment compared to the past.
Of these three top-10 losers, I expect the pollsters to drop SIU the most. Their support in the polls has always seemed somewhat soft, so I could even see them go a spot or two lower.
Next comes that perennial favorite, Northern Iowa. Yes, their game did go into overtime. However, the fact is that the Panthers lost to a team that still, after the upset, has a losing record (4-5). I suspect UNI’s honeymoon with the pollsters could be over, and it would not surprise me if they dropped another spot or two.
VMI has been up and down in the polls, even spending two weeks out of the top-25. Thus, even though they lost to a ranked opponent, I’m expecting the pollsters to hit them pretty hard. In fact, it would not shock me if they dropped out altogether.
Princeton and William & Mary both lost to unranked opponents, and neither game was particularly close. Thus, I expect the pollsters to drop them out of the top-25. One obvious replacement is Dartmouth, the winner over Princeton. And why not the easy call? Slot them in where Princeton was (tied for #20). For the other, I’m guessing that the pollsters will reward Rhode Island for their “upset” of UMass. Granted, the Minutemen (1-8) are a pathetic FBS team, but some glamor does rub off and the Rhodie’s (6-3) record fits right into that part of the poll.
With its fifth loss, Weber State is now toast. Even if they win out (entirely possible, facing SUU and NoColo), they cannot even be a spoiler in the Big Sky. As a replacement, I decided that SFA looked like a good candidate, with their “upset” of #25 Eastern Kentucky.
Of course, Eastern Kentucky will also drop out. I was left with trying to decide who the pollsters might favor as a replacement. Chattanooga (6-3) and Mercer (6-2) were among the possibilities. But Mercer was idle, and Chattie played woeful Wofford (1-8) … neither of which provided much of a recommendation. I finally decided that Harvard looked pretty good, going on the road and crushing a pretty good Columbia (5-3) team, 49-21.
Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 Sam Houston (8-0) [1]
#2 James Madison (8-1) [3]
#3 Montana State (8-1) [4]
#4 South Dakota State (7-2) [9]
#5 NDSU (8-1) [2]
#6 UC Davis (8-1) [8]
#7 Villanova (7-2) [10]
#8 EWU (7-2) [5]
#9 Montana (7-2) [11]
#10 SE Louisiana (7-2) [6]
#11 Kennesaw State (8-1) [12]
#12 Southern Illinois (6-3) [7]
#13 East Tennessee State (8-1) [14]
#14 UT Martin (8-1) [15]
#15 Sacramento State (7-2) [16]
#16 Missouri State (6-3) [17]
#17 Incarnate Word (7-2) [22]
#18 Northern Iowa (5-4) [13]
#19 Jackson State (8-1) [19]
#20 Dartmouth (7-1) NR
#21 South Dakota (6-3) [23]
#22 Rhode Island (6-3) NR
#23 Stephen F. Austin (6-3) NR
#24 VMI (6-3) [18]
#25 Harvard (6-2) NR
Princeton (7-1) [20]
William & Mary (6-3) [20]
Weber State (4-5) [24]
Eastern Kentucky (6-3) [25]
The first obvious question is: How far will NDSU fall? Three spots and the block of losses for #5-#7 makes it possible to lift SDSU all the way to #4 … just ahead of NDSU. I think that’s how the pollsters will see it.
Next in line is EWU. Two losses in a row, one of them to a questionable Weber State team, could hurt them badly. However, to drop them more than my guess would put them below the Griz … and I do not see that happening.
Since SELA lost to a ranked team, they should not drop too much. I guessed four spots, which keeps them barely in the top-10. With their (7-2) record, just below the Griz with the same record, I like where this guess puts them. However, this could be one of those cases where the pollsters dish out extra punishment compared to the past.
Of these three top-10 losers, I expect the pollsters to drop SIU the most. Their support in the polls has always seemed somewhat soft, so I could even see them go a spot or two lower.
Next comes that perennial favorite, Northern Iowa. Yes, their game did go into overtime. However, the fact is that the Panthers lost to a team that still, after the upset, has a losing record (4-5). I suspect UNI’s honeymoon with the pollsters could be over, and it would not surprise me if they dropped another spot or two.
VMI has been up and down in the polls, even spending two weeks out of the top-25. Thus, even though they lost to a ranked opponent, I’m expecting the pollsters to hit them pretty hard. In fact, it would not shock me if they dropped out altogether.
Princeton and William & Mary both lost to unranked opponents, and neither game was particularly close. Thus, I expect the pollsters to drop them out of the top-25. One obvious replacement is Dartmouth, the winner over Princeton. And why not the easy call? Slot them in where Princeton was (tied for #20). For the other, I’m guessing that the pollsters will reward Rhode Island for their “upset” of UMass. Granted, the Minutemen (1-8) are a pathetic FBS team, but some glamor does rub off and the Rhodie’s (6-3) record fits right into that part of the poll.
With its fifth loss, Weber State is now toast. Even if they win out (entirely possible, facing SUU and NoColo), they cannot even be a spoiler in the Big Sky. As a replacement, I decided that SFA looked like a good candidate, with their “upset” of #25 Eastern Kentucky.
Of course, Eastern Kentucky will also drop out. I was left with trying to decide who the pollsters might favor as a replacement. Chattanooga (6-3) and Mercer (6-2) were among the possibilities. But Mercer was idle, and Chattie played woeful Wofford (1-8) … neither of which provided much of a recommendation. I finally decided that Harvard looked pretty good, going on the road and crushing a pretty good Columbia (5-3) team, 49-21.
