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statistical truths

citygriz

Well-known member
okay, we all love tinks and wish him the very best at oregon state. he's one of our own, and we couldn't be more proud of him and his family. but in his last year as head coach at montana, he left behind a statistical trail--some good, some ugly. let's look.

the good:
--rate of turnovers: fourth best in the country. teriffic. any coach or fan will tell you, turnovers kill 'ya. wayne's teams got that message, and he was quick to mention that when he met the press for the first time at oregon state.
--field goal percentage: 47.7%. 23rd in the country. very good.
--3 point field goal percentage: 37.4%. 59nth in the country. again, pretty good.
--free throw percentage: 73.8%, 42nd in the country. very good.

the bad:
--rebounding: almost the worst in the entire country. of 345 teams reporting at the d1 level, montana ranked #344. virtually, dead last.
--field goal defensive percentage: 47.5%. this was awful, ranking us 326 out of 345. in the jud heatchote and mike montgomery eras, montana was almost always among the national leaders in field goal percentage defense. it was one statistic a montana fan could always look to with pride, and a huge reason montana was so consistently good for so many years. neither heathcote nor montgomery would have tolerated 47.5%.
--assists per game. 268th out of 345. that puts us well in the bottom third in the country. it seems to me for a team that is passing the ball, finding the open man and playing as a cohesive unit, that is not a good statistic.

a few conclusions:
--our shooting kept us in most games. we all knew that.
--our rebounding killed us, and we all knew that. rebounding is partly height and muscle, but equal parts determination and toughness. krysko was not the most physically blessed player of his era, nor was dennis rodman during that incredible stretch that he dominated rebounding stats in the nba. but both krysko and rodman played with incredible determinantion, even meanness. neither would be denied going after a rebound. our guys were denied. you can't finish almost dead last in the country and say that that your players were determined or mean enough, no matter their size.
--the field goal percentage defense was terrible. first explanation is, our interior defense was awful, so opponents got a lot of close-in, high-percentage shots. but again, isn't defense partly about hustle, determiantion and coaching strategy? to finish 326th out of 345 teams in the country in this category is just plain not acceptible.
--same is true of assists, ranking well into the bottom third in the country. i am all about moving the ball, passing the ball, "hot-potato, hot-potato." in my opinion, there is simply too much one-on-one in both the pro and college game. carmelo anthony is the poster child for this, when he said to him, ball movement is moving the ball from one hand to the next. say what you want, but teams that pass the ball effectively should not rank so low in the country in assists per game.

tinks can hand out all the drinks he wants on the quad at oregon state. he can hand out ten dollar bills, condoms and refridgerators, for that matter. but if he doesn't win at oregon state, he won't put butts in seats. and he won't win if he doesn't improve on some of the ugly statistics he left in his final year at montana.
 
I couldn't agree more. Sure, there were two big guys that left the program but would they have made that much difference? I doubt it. It is precisely what you have pointed out that made the selection of Wayne by Oregon State a total surprise to me. Even with a 7 footer, the Griz failed to impress with an inside game. I always thought that was ironic in that Wayne was a very good big man. Having witnessed 3 of the largest blow outs I have seen in two years, I was, and am, surprised that OSU hired Wayne. Good for him...But, apart from the money, I am not sure this is a move "up"...if OSU gets blown out of games like UM did in the tourney and at Minnesota, there will be no where else to go...I wish him success. He will need it in a conference that is getting better each year but notoriously impatient.
 
Most of these "statistical truths" give little to no insight on coaching and success.

The best team in computer models under Tinkle was 2009-2010, a season ending with a loss to New Mexico. Montana was 272nd in the country in assist percentage in 09-10 compared to 257th in 13-14. Tinkle's highest assist percentage year was 07-08 (42nd in country), easily Tinkle's worst year (went 14-16).

I agree his offenses could be a little boring and lacked ball movement, but this appears to have nothing to do with success.

Tinkle's 10-11 team was an incredible 16th in the country in defensive eFG%, compared to 302nd in 13-14. The 10-11 team featured two 7 foot rim protecters who could both play 32+ minutes/game and athletic freaks Will Cherry, Kareem Jamar, and Art Steward on the perimeter. The 13-14 team featured three 6 foot guards who played 25-35 minutes/game each, with their 2 tallest guys combining to play 25 minutes/game.

Defense is more about player personnel than coaching and schemes. Sure, coaches that can get teams to "give it their all" generally have good defensive teams, but personnel is by far more important. Just look at Krzyzewski, a coach who runs a program as systematically as any elite program and stresses hard work and defense. They did't have good personnel last year, they were 151st in the country in defensive eFG%, which is bad for an ACC team. Tinkle didn't have good personnel in 13-14.

Tinkle's worst turnover team relative to the rest of the country was 12-13, a team that went 25-7. Tinkle improved the turnover percentage by 3.2% the next season and the team went 17-13.

Sure, turnover percentage was great, but that wasn't an indicator of success.

Tinkle's best rebounding team was 06-07, a team that went 17-15.

Sure, rebounding was bad last year. But good rebounding also doesn't translate to success. Montana State last year was 16th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage, compared to our 301st. How'd their season go?
 
well, i'm not a big stats guy either. but it seems to me that if:
--you are virtually the worst rebounding team in the country, and...
--you give up 47.5 shooting percentge to the other team, and...
--you're in the bottom third of the country in assists...then

you better not turn the ball over and you better shoot lights out (which the griz did), if you have any hope of being around...

.500, which is pretty much where the griz wound up this year.

oregon state is looking for a lot better than .500, i can guarantee you that.

jes sayin'.
 
If Wayne can get the type of athlete he is looking for in his offense then I think he will do OK. He will need a Will Cherry type of guard on the floor at all times - PAC-12 recruiting should give him that
 
Word said:
Most of these "statistical truths" give little to no insight on coaching and success.

The best team in computer models under Tinkle was 2009-2010, a season ending with a loss to New Mexico. Montana was 272nd in the country in assist percentage in 09-10 compared to 257th in 13-14. Tinkle's highest assist percentage year was 07-08 (42nd in country), easily Tinkle's worst year (went 14-16).

I agree his offenses could be a little boring and lacked ball movement, but this appears to have nothing to do with success.

Tinkle's 10-11 team was an incredible 16th in the country in defensive eFG%, compared to 302nd in 13-14. The 10-11 team featured two 7 foot rim protecters who could both play 32+ minutes/game and athletic freaks Will Cherry, Kareem Jamar, and Art Steward on the perimeter. The 13-14 team featured three 6 foot guards who played 25-35 minutes/game each, with their 2 tallest guys combining to play 25 minutes/game.

Defense is more about player personnel than coaching and schemes. Sure, coaches that can get teams to "give it their all" generally have good defensive teams, but personnel is by far more important. Just look at Krzyzewski, a coach who runs a program as systematically as any elite program and stresses hard work and defense. They did't have good personnel last year, they were 151st in the country in defensive eFG%, which is bad for an ACC team. Tinkle didn't have good personnel in 13-14.

Tinkle's worst turnover team relative to the rest of the country was 12-13, a team that went 25-7. Tinkle improved the turnover percentage by 3.2% the next season and the team went 17-13.

Sure, turnover percentage was great, but that wasn't an indicator of success.

Tinkle's best rebounding team was 06-07, a team that went 17-15.

Sure, rebounding was bad last year. But good rebounding also doesn't translate to success. Montana State last year was 16th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage, compared to our 301st. How'd their season go?

Great post, Word. I was going to touch on this like you did, but now just need to add some to it. These stats are nothing more than indicators than which team had what weaknesses and strengths from season to season. I do believe low turnover rates should be emphasized by every coach at every level. As stated, most these stats are determined by the type of team and personnel a team has. Low assists do not necessarily mean a team is not moving the ball around I would guess over the last few seasons, the GRIZ lost a few assists per game due to players bobbling passes, not being ready for a pass at particular spot, or just not converting on a great pass.

Also teams adjust their offensive strategy based on their personnel. Without the luxury of a great post game, the last few years the GRIZ had to rely on much more 1 on 1 for scoring from the likes of Jamar, Cherry, Gregory, Dunn, Deshields, even Weisner went more 1 on 1 this past season by driving the ball to the hole. Also this goes to show the value of a great passing post man like Derek Selvig. Usually assists totals are better for teams with a great post presence and/or great passing post player. Assists are easier to rack up when players like Strait, Qvale, Kamar Davis, Mathias Ward can be consistently relied on to convert great passes into buckets.

Despite the loss of Jamar and Deshields, I won't be surprised if average assists per game go up this coming season with the presence of Breunig and more experience from the likes of Martin and Kemp. A lot will also depend on the offensive emphasis of whomever is the GRIZ new head coach.
 
Tinkle will recruit better athletes to OSU, will it be enough to put them well over .500?

Will OSU be patient with Wayne? I think he will produce winning teams there, at least by our standards.
 
I expect UM will see more post season tourney time than OSU over the next few years. They have a steep hill to climb. I hope Tinks will schedule the Griz a few times.
 
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