This is it Griz Nation, your Montana Grizzlies in less than 1 week will square off against the South Dakota State Jackrabbits for the FCS National Championship. It’s been 14 years since Montana last played in the chipper, and now they face off against what some media members are calling one of the greatest FCS teams ever in SDSU. The last game the Jackrabbits lost was September 3rd, 2022 – a 7-3 loss to Iowa, their last FCS loss was December 18, 2021 against Montana State.
SDSU’s post season honors include 9 first-team all conference players (QB, RB, WR, 2 OL, DL, LB, DB, AP) and 9 2nd team all conference players (FB, TE, OL, LB, DB, P, LS, RS). Their QB Gronowski won Offensive Player of the Year and is a Walter Payton finalist – and seemingly the front runner to win it. In the MVFC Gronowski actually shared offensive MVP with… his running back, Isiah Davis. SDSU’s new coach did not win conference coach of the year, but did win the national coach of the year, beating out Bobby Hauck who finished 3rd in voting.
SDSU is a 13.5 point favorite, as I’ve gone through their schedule, their roster, and their stats… it all makes sense. I’ll say it opening and I’ll say it again I closing. Montana will need to play their very best game of the season to win, and that might not even be enough.
Let’s get into it.
South Dakota State Jackrabbits 14-0
45-7 win vs Western Oregon: It was 42-0 at the half and SDSU called off the dogs. They had a little over 200 rushing and a little under 200 passing. SDSU had 3 picks and took 2 to the house.
20-16 win vs Montana State: The “beef bowl” per SDSU’s website. I know many of us watched this game. MSU had a 10-0 halftime lead and kicked a fieldgoal with 2 minutes to go to take a 16-13 lead. However MSU would surrender a score just 30 seconds later to go down 20-16. The cats went down the field but by the width of a WR’s foot were out of bounds on a would-be game winning TD. Yes their QB might’ve been over the LOS, regardless they were right there to win it. SDSU had just 350 yards of offense in this game, the cat defense held them to 157 rushing and 184 passing. The other interesting stat was SDSDU’s offense was on the field for less than 25:00 of TOP. The cat game plan for this almost worked!
70-7 win vs Drake: SDSU outgained Drake 620 to 280 and scored TDs on 10 of their 12 total drives in the game.
42-21 win vs North Dakota: UND added 14 points in the 4th to make this one look like it might have been competitive, it really wasn’t. UND had just 235 total yards while SDSU ground out 266 rushing and another 167 passing. UND had just 3 possessions the first half and by that point they were losing 21-7 and would soon be down 35-7 before they added some more points of their own.
40-21 win @ Illinois State: Lots of points in the first half! It was 34-14 SDSU. In the 3rd ISU would find the endzone to get within 34-21 but then SDSU shut them entirely down. ISU had 5 2nd half possessions, it went TD, fumble, 3 and out, 1 first down then punt, turnover on downs. SDSU put up just about 375 on the ground alone against ISU.
41-6 win vs UNI: Hobo day! Yes, that’s what it was called, where SDSU fans dress like hobos (literally) in an over 100 year old tradition – it’s what they deem as their homecoming essentially too. In the game UNI was crushed, 40 yards rushing, 224 passing, and 2 picks + 3 fumbles lost. SDSU flipped the script from the week before and this time almost passed for 300, while still rushing for almost 170.
17-10 win @ Southern Illinois: SDSU lead the whole way but this was their tightest game since the MSU game. It was 7-0 at the half, SIU on their opening drive opted to go for it on a 4th down instead of trying for a field goal, but was stuffed. A little later in the first half they would toss a pick on their side of the field that lead to SDSU’s lone first half TD. In the 2nd half SDSU would go up 14-0, SIU answers getting it to 14-7, SDSU eventually hits a field goal to go up 17-7, then SIU with 35 seconds left would hit a field goal to make it 17-10, unfortunately for them they would not get the onsides kick and the game ends there. Both teams had exactly 308 yards. SDSU went 147 rush / 161 pass while SIU went 83 rush / 225 pass. SDSU was a uncharacteristically 4 for 12 on 3rd down.
37-3 win @ South Dakota: USD was up 3-0 at the end of the 1st quarter, and that’s about where their fun ended. SDSU would wind up with 266 rushing and 207 passing, they grabbed 2 INTs and held the ball for nearly 36:00 of TOP.
33-16 win vs South Dakota State: NDSU went up 6-0 due to a blocked PAT, SDSU answered and grabbed a 7-6 lead, NDSU replied with a fieldgoal, recapturing the lead, 9-7… From there though, SDSU was unstoppable. They re-took the lead with a field goal, and then proceeded to score 20 points in their next 5 possessions (2 TDs, 2 FGs, 1 punt). On the other side of the ball NDSU would go 3 and out, then lose a fumble, then miss two field goals in a row, then toss an interception. NDSU was -3 on the day and missed 2 field goals. The teams were somewhat evenly matched in yards 365 for SDSU and 325 for NDSU (difference in a little more passing for SDSU). TOP was essentially split and NDSU was 4 for 12 on 3rd down.
34-0 win @ Youngstown State: YSU had just 207 yards (47 rushing / 160 passing) while SDSU had 324 passing to go with 166 rushing.
35-17 win vs Missouri State: While on a bit of cruise control with everything sewn up, 1 seed, home field, etc, SDSU still had a solid showing on offense with 323 passing and 154 rushing.
41-0 win vs Mercer: Round 2 of the playoffs, Mercer would be outgained 571 to 150 and would only cross mid field twice the whole game. SDSU would punt just once the whole day and had two 100 yard rushers.
23-12 win vs Villanova: Facing 30 mph winds in a game where going one direction on the field seemed near impossible it was an interesting struggle for SDSU. They had 242 rushing and 101 passing while Nova had just 219 total yards. However it was just 10-9 SDSU at the half and 17-12 SDSU in the early 4th. SDSU had the TOP advantage, but not by as much as they usually do, and went 4 of 12 on 3rd down.
59-0 win vs Albany: I still haven’t watched this game but I assume Albany was just out of gas or something because they had a supposed near FCS best defense and had previously beat Villanova 31-10, and they absolutely had the doors blown off them. SDSU ran for 220, passed for 336, forced 3 interceptions, 1 fumble, and 3 turnovers on downs in the game.
-------------
General Stats
Passing yards per game SDSU (197 for GRIZ vs 225 for SDSU)
Rushing yards per game SDSU (186 for GRIZ vs 236 for SDSU)
Total offense SDSU (383 for GRIZ vs 456 for SDSU)
Passing yards allowed per game SDSU (208 for GRIZ vs 164 for SDSU)
Rushing yards allowed per game SDSU (103 for GRIZ vs 93 for SDSU)
Total defense SDSU (311 for GRIZ vs 257 for SDSU)
A trend is rapidly developing, clean sweep for SDSU who gets all 6 categories.
Offense points scored SDSU (32.2 for GRIZ vs 38.4 for SDSU)
Defense points allowed SDSU (16.8 for GRIZ vs 9.7 for SDSU)
Turnover margin SDSU (+10 for GRIZ / +15 for SDSU)
Fieldgoal % SDSU (65% for GRIZ vs 74% for SDSU)
Punt Returns SDSU (14.7 yards for GRIZ vs 18 yards for SDSU)
Kick Returns GRIZ (23.5 yards for GRIZ vs 22.2 yards for SDSU)
T.O.P. SDSU (31:30 for GRIZ vs 31:41 for SDSU)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) SDSU (57% GRIZ / 31.25% SDSU)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) SDSU (65.4% GRIZ / 79.6% SDSU)
3rd down offense SDSU – (42.9% for GRIZ / 54.8% for SDSU)
3rd down defense GRIZ – (28.6% allowed for GRIZ vs 34.3% allowed for SDSU)
This is quite possibly the most lop-sided stat comparison I’ve ever had in a scouting report. SDSU picks up 9 more, while Montana finally lands a few, barely, with a slightly better kick return average and a better 3rd down % rate on defense.
That puts the tally at… SDSU 15, Montana 2
--------------------
SDSU Players to Watch:
#11 Mark Gronowski, QB: At 6-3, 225 pounds he is one of the three Walter Payton Award finalists that we’ll get word on this Saturday. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins it, best player on the best team. He’s passing for just about 206 yards per game, has 28 TDs to just 4 INTs on a 68.% completion. He’s also a running threat with 349 total rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs this season so far.
#22 Isaiah Davis, RB: I believe I read he’s the leading rusher in the FCS, the 6-1, 220 pound running back is considered to be one of the most NFL-ready players in the FCS and is considered to be one of the first 10 RBs off the boards this spring. Davis has 1491 rushing yards and 17 rushing TDs this season. He’s also got 196 receiving yards and 1 receiving TD as well
#1 Jadon Janke, WR / #10 Jaxon Janke, WR: SDSU’s twin WRs are #1 and #2 in receiving on the team, Jadon has 891 yards receiving and 9 TDs while Jaxon has 752 yards and 5 TDs. Both are 6-3.
#87 Zach Heinz, TE: A huge 6-7, 260 pound target and hell of a blocker too. He’s got 369 receiving yards and 7 TDs this season. He also has NFL draft buzz, currently projected as a mid/late rounder.
#1 Tucker Large, DB: A 5-10, 180 pound safety that we’ll see on defense, he’s got 42 tackles and team high 4 INTs. Statistically he is one of the very best punt returners in the FCS as well. He’s averaging almost 19 yards per return and has 1 TD this season.
#11 Jason Freeman, LB: A first team all conference linebacker, the 5-9, 215 pound senior leads the team with 95 tackles, he’s got 5 TFLs, 2 INTs, and has 3 fumble recoveries.
#94 Cade Teerver, DL: The 6-3, 255 pound D-lineman is another first teamer, he’s got a team best 6 sacks and 7.5 TFLs to go with 20 total tackles.
#2 Isaiah Stalbird, LB: A 215 pound linebacker who was 2nd team all conference. He’s 2nd on the team in stops with 75. He’s also 2nd in TFLs with 5.5 and has 2 sacks. Here’ Freeman has 3 fumble recoveries, Stalbird has 3 forced fumbles.
-------------------------------
Keys to a victory
1. Montana’s disruptive defense needs to show out even better than they have on this playoff run. Against even MSU but then also UD, FU, and NDSU the Grizzly defense took opposing QBs out of their typical game and forced them to be woefully less efficient than their stats previously were. That HAS to happen on Sunday again, and it’s a tall ask. If the Grizzly defense can confuse and rattle Gronowski and force him into an error or two and prevent deep shots and easy 3rd down conversions that’ll be a major key to the success of the game.
2. The Grizzly offense needs to get going again, and they only have to do it against the best statistical defense in the FCS. The Grizzly offense (in regulation time) put up 13 points on Furman and 10 points on NDSU. If that happens on Sunday this won’t be a close game at all, it’ll be a blowout as the SDSU offense will grind out the Grizzly defense and roll easily. The Grizzly offense has to get back on schedule with manageable 3rd downs they can convert and long & drawn out drives mixed with a few deep strike shots as well. Here’s the trick… no team has done that to SDSU this season. Can the Griz with 3 weeks of prep find some spots to exploit in that SDSU defense?
3. In SDSU’s 3 closer games it seemed that their opponents were more balanced with them in TOP and held them to being a little less effective on 3rd down. One of the two statistical advantages that the Griz have is their 3rd down defense, that has to shine on Sunday and make a ton of stops.
4. Montana has to play their most complete game, that cannot be understated enough. Additionally, they’re going to need a little luck as well. Maybe an odd bounce of a ball, a tip drill pick, something.
5. Montana must be positive in turnover margin. Can’t fall in a hole to this team.
----------------------
I can see why Vegas, FCS coaches, FCS pundits, and fans that aren’t Griz fans are picking SDSU. It makes sense, they’re as dominant as any team I’ve seen and honestly I wouldn’t be surprised if they win and win big based on what they’ve simply been doing to other teams the last two years honestly.
Here’s what I like though:
- Brent Pease has had 3 weeks to prepare for this game, as has Bradford and Tim Hauck. With rest and time to prepare we’ve seen some really great stuff from our coordinators and consultants. I would take these guys over just about anyone to prep this team for the game.
- Montana has played a tougher playoff schedule and while they were far more greatly tested I truly think they’ve already played 2 of the 4 best teams that made the post season (Furman and NDSU). Add in this team played Washington just 2 years ago and carries over a ton of guys who played in that game. Recall from that one all we heard was UW as too big, too strong, too physical, would push us around, was more experienced, etc? Montana’s faced this underdog role before and came out with a win.
- The pressure isn’t on Montana, it’s on SDSU. They were picked to win it all again, they have more of the national award winners, they have kids that are hitting the combine and the draft after. The expectation and pressure all lies on them. Montana wasn’t supposed to be here (in many people’s eyes). This is “house money” (Mike Nugent voice) and Montana has just enjoyed the hell out of this ride as they’ve realized they can hang with and beat anybody they’ve faced.
- Montana has thrived as underdogs that are counted out before the game started, this isn’t new territory for our team and our coaches.
I can’t help back but think to 1996. The Montana Grizzlies were red hot as defending national champs, with a newly promoted head coach after the prior one retired, and cruised into the national title game. At that game… they got punched in the mouth and faced a team they couldn’t handle. Now I know there are different storylines from then vs now as well (I don’t think Montana has a Randy Moss equivalent to decimate the SDSU defense for example) however I do see a potential fascinating storyline form that that could transfer over here this weekend.
My head tells me just pick SDSU something like 48-24 because they are that good and we just don’t stack up. But… I’m not going that route. I think this game slows down and tightens up. Montana might get some early shocks but if they can absorb those body blows with answers of their own, they’ll make it a game. I said it on the pod and it’s what my heart tells me… I say Griz win the whole damn thing this Sunday in an epic national title game, 28-24.
Go Griz!
