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Some Football Coaching History

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
Read a sports commentary that got me to thinking about the “coaching carousel.” Many fan bases (FCS as well as FBS) would like to pull the trigger sooner rather than later on firing a coach whose team is not performing to their expectations. So I got to wondering how some of the more successful coaches got their starts.

It took a lot of digging, at least partly because it seems like most coaches have relatively little success when they first start out as head coaches. And some don’t make it, so you cannot find much about their overall careers. But I finally found a dozen to work with. They are not, of course, fully representative of all first-time head coaches because they have been “pre-selected” by the fact that they have been successful since. Six got their start at the FCS level, six at the FBS level.

So this is a composite of those twelve coaches. Experience prior to head coaching job: Played college football. Two of them coached 3-4 years at the high school. The average experience as a college-level assistant is 14.2 years. All but two got their big chances after 1995, and eight of them in 2003 or later.

The teams that hired them were coming off poor to awful stretches. The average record for the year before the new guy was hired was 3-9. For the three years before that, the composite record was 13-20. So they had no where to go but up.

In the first year as a new head coach, their teams averaged out to a 4-8 record. Of these examples, a couple backed into bowls game (6-6 will do that), but both lost. They improved steadily, to 6-6 in the second year and 7-5 in their third year. The ten coaches who went into a fourth year compiled a composite 9-3 record. Two coaches did not get to a fourth year because they were hired away by richer programs.

Many of the FBS teams got into bowl games in their third year and most managed it in their fourth year. Overall, they were about 9-7 in their bowl appearances. Four of the six FCS coaches got their teams into post-season play by the third or fourth years of their tenure. And two of those won a first-round game.

On the other hand: Only three of these twelve successful coaches have stayed more than 10 years at the school where they got their first head coaching job. One is still there after 7 years, so the clock is still running. The other eight averaged 4.3 years at that school before they were hired away

Who were these guys? In alphabetical order: Art Briles, Houston. Dave Clawson, Fordham. Tom Gilmore, Holy Cross. Al Golden, Temple. Lou Holtz, William & Mary. Mike MacIntyre, San Jose State. Bronco Mendenhall, BYU. Bobby Petrino, Louisville. Danny Rocco, Liberty. Brock Spack, Illinois State. Jim Tressel, Youngstown State. Tommy Tuberville, Ole Miss.

Several of these coaches are “household names” in college football coaching, while others are fairly obscure. But all have been successful, some very successful, so far. But even they took awhile to get rolling. Given the current attitudes of fans, one gets the feeling they were only given those three or four years because the teams they took over were so bad. :?
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Read a sports commentary that got me to thinking about the “coaching carousel.” Many fan bases (FCS as well as FBS) would like to pull the trigger sooner rather than later on firing a coach whose team is not performing to their expectations. So I got to wondering how some of the more successful coaches got their starts.

It took a lot of digging, at least partly because it seems like most coaches have relatively little success when they first start out as head coaches. And some don’t make it, so you cannot find much about their overall careers. But I finally found a dozen to work with. They are not, of course, fully representative of all first-time head coaches because they have been “pre-selected” by the fact that they have been successful since. Six got their start at the FCS level, six at the FBS level.

So this is a composite of those twelve coaches. Experience prior to head coaching job: Played college football. Two of them coached 3-4 years at the high school. The average experience as a college-level assistant is 14.2 years. All but two got their big chances after 1995, and eight of them in 2003 or later.

The teams that hired them were coming off poor to awful stretches. The average record for the year before the new guy was hired was 3-9. For the three years before that, the composite record was 13-20. So they had no where to go but up.

In the first year as a new head coach, their teams averaged out to a 4-8 record. Of these examples, a couple backed into bowls game (6-6 will do that), but both lost. They improved steadily, to 6-6 in the second year and 7-5 in their third year. The ten coaches who went into a fourth year compiled a composite 9-3 record. Two coaches did not get to a fourth year because they were hired away by richer programs.

Many of the FBS teams got into bowl games in their third year and most managed it in their fourth year. Overall, they were about 9-7 in their bowl appearances. Four of the six FCS coaches got their teams into post-season play by the third or fourth years of their tenure. And two of those won a first-round game.

On the other hand: Only three of these twelve successful coaches have stayed more than 10 years at the school where they got their first head coaching job. One is still there after 7 years, so the clock is still running. The other eight averaged 4.3 years at that school before they were hired away

Who were these guys? In alphabetical order: Art Briles, Houston. Dave Clawson, Fordham. Tom Gilmore, Holy Cross. Al Golden, Temple. Lou Holtz, William & Mary. Mike MacIntyre, San Jose State. Bronco Mendenhall, BYU. Bobby Petrino, Louisville. Danny Rocco, Liberty. Brock Spack, Illinois State. Jim Tressel, Youngstown State. Tommy Tuberville, Ole Miss.

Several of these coaches are “household names” in college football coaching, while others are fairly obscure. But all have been successful, some very successful, so far. But even they took awhile to get rolling. Given the current attitudes of fans, one gets the feeling they were only given those three or four years because the teams they took over were so bad. :?

For this Griz fan, point well presented, point well taken. Nice job IMHO...... :)
 
stilwtrgrizz said:
... For this Griz fan, point well presented, point well taken. Nice job IMHO...... :)
Thanks!

It was a fair amount of work, but I found the final results fascinating.
 
Still thinking about the coaching zoo and, in the process, added another interesting example to my “startup” head coach review. And the winner is:

Skip Holtz, son of Lou Holtz. Skip played college football, but he was not very successful at it. He got his first head coaching gig after just 6 years as an assistant (name recognition and contacts matter). But it was no bargain being hired by UConn when it was already at least thinking about moving up from 1-AA. The year before Skip was hired, Connecticut actually had a winning record, at 6-5. However, they had gone 14-19 in the three years before that. Holtz lasted five years at UConn:
1994: 4-4 (Yankee Conference)
1995: 8-3
1996: 5-6
1997: 7-4 (Atlantic-10)
1998: 10-3
In 1998, UConn was 1-1 in the 1-AA playoffs, losing at Georgia Southern, which played for the national championship, but lost to UMass. As we all know, Connecticut finally did go FBS -- where they have not done particularly well.

Holtz then went back to work for his dad at South Carolina. Then he was hired as head coach at East Carolina. The Pirates were miserable the year before Holtz came on board, with a 2-9 record. In the three years before that, they were 11-25. Holtz again lasted five years:
2005: 5-6
2006: 7-6, lost in the Papa John’s Bowl
2007: 8-5, won the Hawaii Bowl
2008: 9-5, lost in the Liberty Bowl
2009: 9-5, lost in the Liberty Bowl.
He was then hired away by South Florida.

Even in his second go-round, Skip pretty well fit the pattern of taking awhile to really get rolling.
 
Very interesting and the point well taken. Patience is not one of my greater virtues but when it comes to the coaching changes I need to be very patient.
 
Well, it's interesting, but the data was selected to prove a point. If the "best" coaches are measured, then this will discover the best results. "I am going to choose coaches that took bad programs and became successful coaches. Sure enough, the results show that the best coaches took bad programs and produced successful results." It does not mean that, with the passage of time, coaches necessarily produce better results.
 
UMGriz75 said:
Well, it's interesting, but the data was selected to prove a point. If the "best" coaches are measured, then this will discover the best results. "I am going to choose coaches that took bad programs and became successful coaches. Sure enough, the results show that the best coaches took bad programs and produced successful results." It does not mean that, with the passage of time, coaches necessarily produce better results.
Not totally sure what point you're trying to make with the final sentence. I assume you mean that a given coach will not automatically win more games, given enough time on the job. That is manifestly true, and we are in total agreement on that. I actually suspect most first-time coaches probably fail to produce better results. (But it might take a lot of work to prove it.)

But the fact is, I did not "choose coaches that took bad programs and became successful coaches." That would have taken a lot more research than I was willing to spend time on. Now, I'll admit I did not explain my criteria in detail ... so here goes.

First, what I did was pick successful coaches -- based only on the fact that they still have head coaching jobs. (That is, in FBS and FCS lists I found on the web.) Then, I had to be able to find a reasonably complete biography on the web. (That bumped several, BTW.) Some have been very successful, some not so much. I did eliminate coaches whose first head coaching job was at a college level below D-I (1-AA or 1A). That excluded Stitt and several others from the sample, of course. I also eliminated coaches who had been in their first jobs less than three or four years. Given the coaching carousel, that bumped quite a few guys who are right now in their first head coaching jobs, whether FCS or FBS. That also skews the results by bumping coaches who were "run out of town" in a year or two -- usually because they did not show at least reasonable results or simply totally pissed off the administration and/or fan base.

So, yes, the base was narrowed by these criteria. But I did not even look up the prior records of the teams that hired these guys until they passed the other "filters." What I found was three-fold ... and none of it is surprising or profound:
(1) Programs who were in dire straits were more willing to take a chance on a man who had no previous head coaching experience. [What a surprise ... Not!]
(2) Coaches who successfully turned those program around went on to greater success, often being hired away in a very short time. [Oh my ... another huge surprise?]
(3) Even for the coaches who survived all of that, it almost never happened right away. It generally took three or four years to complete the turnaround.

My only "agenda" in starting this thread was to present the [radical?] notion that even the best coaches working today – FCS or FBS - hardly ever turned a sub-standard program around over-night (i.e., even a season). The evidence shows that even the good coaches took 3-4 years .. and then they get hired away by richer programs. :(
 
Thanks IdaGriz this was a positive thread. The sad truth that the good ones will have to move up. Rare to see coaches stay with one program for several years, before the poaching occures.
 
Diesel said:
Thanks IdaGriz this was a positive thread. The sad truth that the good ones will have to move up. Rare to see coaches stay with one program for several years, before the poaching occurs.
And the better the coach, the sooner the poaching happens

In re-reading my explanation above, I realized that I did start with another criteria, even before I went to the list of current coaches. At the very beginning, I just asked myself who were some of the more successful coaches whose names I could remember. That’s why Lou Holtz was one of my examples … he is not now a head coach, but had a pretty successful career. That also brought Craig Bohl to mind, since he’s been pretty damn successful. I did not include him, BTW, because when he first went to NDSU, they were still a D-II program.

Of course, arguably the two best college football coaches today are Nick Saban and Urban Meyer. So you may wonder why they are not among my examples. Bottom line: Meyer stayed with his first head coaching job (Bowling Green) just two years. And then he stayed at his next gig (Utah) just two years. Saban had one highly successful (9-2) year at Toledo before being lured into the NFL. You could almost consider his head coaching job at Michigan as his first, but I chose not to do that.

But obviously, if a coach is good enough, the expectation of 3-4 years to make a program successful does not really hold. They can, and will leave for greener ($$$) pastures as soon as their skill is recognized.
 
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