So, why not Montana?

[Grizfan-24]

Now that I have moved beyond initial anger and moved through the stages of grief about the pairing, I have now arrived at acceptance. The odds are pretty long the UM can win this. As in most years, there are teams I would love to see the UM play, and a coach Behlien team is never one of them.

As I noted last year, UM has been paired year after year with bad matchups. You get that when you a bottom tier tournament team, but this getting matched up with defensive geniuses as head coach is starting to wear thin. When I saw Kansas appear in SLC, I was like finally!...but alas that was all for not.

I am not sure as to how the UM can win this game, as in here is the path forward, as to what needs to happen. My gut say this game has to get into the 70's pace wise because it suggests we are getting clean and free looks. However I think this game is going to play in 50's or 60's, at least for us offensively. Since the 1st of January, Michigan has had roughly 20 games and has given up more than 70 4 times. They have given up less that 60 5 times in that span. In games against our level of play, teams struggle to get into the 50's.

The only advantage, is that we are a year wiser, maybe a bit better than last year. The ranking doesn't show it, but even without Akoh this might be a better version than the team that faced Michigan last year. So while our seed is entirely earned, I do think this team is better than the line they are on. Is this team actually a 12 or 13 seed? Maybe. Michigan is better in a lot of ways than it was last year. They are a vastly superior defensive team and have a more diverse offense that isn't cycled through one guy. THis is a vastly more difficult matchup than a year ago, but at the same point this team is more likely to be able to handle it.

 

[Pepto Bismol]

Now that I have moved beyond initial anger and moved through the stages of grief about the pairing, I have now arrived at acceptance...

Last post from me for the day and I'll leave you guys to it. I think we're all in the same boat on the pairing. Love me some Montana Grizzlies, but we've done this already. Was it that hard to throw us each a new matchup? Oh well.

Yeah, it's going to be relatively low-scoring. Michigan is rarely in a hurry. They don't turn the ball over so transition opportunities are a rarity, and they play stifling defense so possessions often run late into the shot clock. On offense, they're patient. They'll push the ball off misses like everybody else, but are perfectly comfortable pulling back if it's not there and running half-court. Again, no turnovers. Anyway, that's why opponents don't hit 70. Michigan plays a half-court game using the full shot clock which results in a snail's pace. Michigan ranks 340th out of 353 teams in possessions per game.

 

[ValleyGriz]

Somehow Lehigh beat Duke in 2012, and obviously UMBC last year against UVA. Both of those rosters were guard heavy and similar in size to what Montana has. So, there is a chance. 4% of one if you follow ESPN. It will be tough, but not impossible. Crazy wins by teams that "shouldn't"/"can't" win is what the tournament so great. Also, I may be talking myself into the chance for a win, since I will be road tripping to IA. The heart of this team and DeCuire's coaching will have me believing anything can happen.

 

[EverettGriz]

Great stuff, Pepto. Thanks for being a class poster full of information.

 

[grizzlyjournal]

Kenpom, which has been quite accurate regarding the Big Sky since mid-January, gives the Grizzlies a seven percent (7%) chance of winning, predicting a 74-57 loss. Haslametrics has consistently ranked Montana 5-7 spots higher, but also says the Griz struggle against top-ranked defenses & thus predicts a 77-56 loss.

Given that statistical info, I'm hoping the Griz can get into the mid-60s. But like most posters here, this looks to me like a daunting matchup.

 

[rocklobster]

Travis will have the team ready! Just like we’re not gonna sneak up on Michigan this year, the Griz have played them, and will be ready! We are not the same team they played last year. Good solid team effort, clean, crisp ball movement, and tempo will be the key. Obviously, to have Akoh in the mix would be a plus, but the players will not be overwhelmed, and I feel will compete, if they stick to the game plan and can keep it from becoming a half court game. A 15 seed beating a 2 seed is really difficult, but it’s doable, as we saw last year, when Virginia went down in the first round.

Oh and...Who wins the fight? A wolverine or grizzly bear?

Best Answer
It depends on how the fight went.
If the bear couldn't get a solid swipe at the speedy, vicious wolverine, the wolverine could well frusterate the bear enough to send it running away. The wolverine wouldn't have a chance of killing the bear, but its veracity could well intimidate the bear into fleeing.

If the bear managed to swipe the wolverine hard with a paw, the strike would likely break the wolverine's back as well as severely lacerate its body with the bears huge claws. Then one crunch from the bears mighty jaws, and the fight's over.

That would be a heck of a fight, either way.

We just need a “solid swipe”!
Go Griz!

 

[PlayerRep]

Pridgett can jump out of the gym, blocks a lot of shots, and is lighting quick to the rim. He was first team all-conference. Who would you see going at him? Remember that the Griz get to decide who guards who. I think Michigan should be concerned about who can guard Pridgett. He can play inside or outside...

First, Montana can win. You wouldn't be there if you couldn't. Understandably, I'm confident in Michigan as a top-10 team and 2-seed, but this is a weird matchup. After citay's post, I Googled your lineup. All 7 guys averaging more than 10 minutes per game are listed as Guards?! And they all shoot 30%+ from three? ….. Oh. That's weird.

Like taking the batting weight off your baseball bat, Michigan will probably be relieved not to see oak trees standing in the paint when they drive for once. Brazdeikis specifically. He's a head-down driver who muscles stuff up at the rim. I can see him having success. Teske should be able to clean up lots of misses. Matthews can jump out of the gym and may find comfort in less-contested jumpers.

As far as your mid-range shooters, that's a shot Michigan wants you to take. Charles Matthews will draw one of your two... guys. (I can't even call them guards, you're ALL GUARDS!) Rorie and Oguine? I assume those are the mid-range dudes you're talking about. Poole probably gets the other one. Poole is athletic and a solid on-ball defender. He just gets lost on cuts and rotations.

To answer your question, I don't know how they handle Pridgett. It's the same problem Mo Wagner posed to teams last year. Michigan killed teams with traditional big men because they couldn't keep up on the perimeter. Can Teske stay with him (or anybody else), or ignore them enough not to be caught roaming the perimeter? I dunno. Michigan CAN go small and play 6'8" Livers at the 5 spot. But they've only done that sporatically for rest purposes. They've never relied on that for the bulk of a game. That's an interesting problem.

I can almost guarantee they won't post up 1-on-1. Matthews maybe on occasion. He likes to work on the block and shoot fadeaways. Teske won't. That's not Michigan's game. It could potentially be the same problem they had against Michigan State. They couldn't punish MSU for a huge size mismatch on Teske. It's just out of character for them to play 1-on-1. They want screens and rolls and pops and cutters and action to force defensive switches and rotations until you lose a guy at the rim or behind the arc for an uncontested three. They do not want to stand around and watch inefficient isolated post offense. MSU stayed in front of the guards. The thing MSU did that Montana may not be able to replicate is they are elite defenders at the rim and outstanding rebounders despite being "undersized".

I dunno. 5 guards is interesting. Teske has good feet for a 7-footer, but ya know... "for a 7-footer". I'm not excited about him chasing guys out to the three-point line.

Rorie probably shoots 75% on short jumpers and the shorter side of mid-range jumpers, especially when he's "on", which is usually. He gets nice elevation, and can shoot them from the front or side. Usually deadly when he's open.

Montana rotates very well off of balls screens and otherwise. This is the strength of their defense, plus having mostly good defenders. Not saying they can keep up with your guys.

Every 7/8 of the Griz players are good or pretty good rebounders, and have stepped it up since Akoh got hurt. The Griz don't let many teams get a lot of offensive rebounds, but I could see that as a problem against Michigan. We had that probably in a few other games recently, at least for a half.

Of the 2 real starting guards, from last year, Oguine had 10 against Geo. St. in our win, 9-Weber, 10-No Colo, 9 So Utah, and 8 and 7 in last 2 games of tourney. Pridgett had 16 against Weber in season. Looks like he's averaging 6 in last 12 games.

Rorie, the other guard, has been getting about 5-7 lately.

Moorehead has stepped it up since Akoh went down and had 10 twice, 9 twice and a good average.

Falls has 4 in championship game. Manuel's best is 5 lately, but I think may have had about 9 once earlier.

The Griz are very fit. Not saying they are fit enough to defend your team.

 

[AZGrizFan]

Griz getting 16....think I’d put my $$ on the Griz to cover if I was near a casino.

 

[PlayerRep]

From UM's 2 new players, transfers from Oregon St. and U Washington:

"A lot of that improvement is in part to the contributions by Manuel and Dorsey, and how well Montana shoots from beyond the arc could be one of the biggest deciding factors in Thursday's match against Michigan.

"I feel like Donaven and I especially can go out there and spread the floor for us," Manuel said. "Last year, Michigan was able to collapse on them and keep the defense in tight. The way Donaven and I can shoot the three, I feel like we'll be able to provide spacing and we can make plays off the dribble too if that's needed."

And though it's their first time competing in the tournament, both are approaching it like their teammates who have been there and done that with a business-like mentality.

"Realistically we're just going to go in with the mentality that we belong here even though we are a 15 seed," Dorsey said. "We feel we belong, we worked hard enough to get here. Fought through a lot of adversity throughout the season that people don't know about.

"We're going to go into the game and go at them. We're not going to hold anything back. We're not going to be scared."

Missoulian article.