The 7th ranked Sacramento State Hornets are coming to town in what promises to be an incredible battle under the lights this weekend in Missoula. Now with head coach (and former Grizzly) Andy Thompson leading the squad they’re looking for their 4th consecutive win over Montana. Sac crushed Montana 49-22 in 2019. In 2021 in Missoula they beat Montana by 7 – picking off a pass in the endzone in the 4th quarter and shutting down Montana’s offense in their final 2 possessions. In 2022 we had a controversial game that wound up with Sac winning in OT against Montana.
Sacramento had quite the off-season, head coach Troy Taylor goes to Standford, yet not all of the staff leaves and Thompson takes over. Sac lost both of their stud QB’s Duniway and O’Hara, their bruiser RB Skattebo, several WRs, and some excellent defensive players either to graduation or the transfer portal. Sac lost 5 starters on offense and 5 starters on defense – but did return 4/5ths of their OL, some skilled WRs, and a vast majority of their defensive secondary.
The coaches voted Sac to finish 3rd, media voted them 4th. They’ve got 5 players that were selected for the preseason all conference team, Fulcher (RB), Martin (TE), Slater (OL), Bailey (LB), and Nelson (DB). Fulcher has had an injury-ridden season, he missed a few weeks after the Idaho game, came back and played a bit against Montana State, but hasn’t played since. The rest are all seemingly good to go, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Martin and maybe he just got needed rest last week against ISU.
Sacramento State Hornets 6-2
38-24 win @ Nicholls – Sac ran for 185 and passed for nearly 265 in their debut with new head coach Thompson and new starters on offense. Nicholls kind of hung around but was usually down 3ish scores, they did tack on 14 late points to make it seem a little closer. Nicholls only converted 4 third downs the whole game.
34-6 win vs Texas A&M Commerce – TAMU-C in in the Southland, an FCS division, but it’s a rough year, they’re 1-7 right now. Sac had over 500 total yards, including 304 rushing in a game they controlled almost immediately. They were averaging almost 7 yards per rush in the game while their defense held Commerce to 216 total yards.
30-23 win @ Stanford – What sweet revenge for Sac to go up against their former head coach and beat him! It was a back and forth game the whole way, although Stanford did have an early 14-3 lead and it was looking like they could run away with it – however Sac roared back with 14 points of their own to hold a 17-14 lead at the half. In the 4th quarter the game was tied 23-23 with just 4:13 to go, Stanfords following drive was a mess – going backwards on a holding and a sack, they had to punt it away. Sac on their 3rd play of the next possession would find the endzone on a 49 yard catch and run to take the lead. Stanford, now down 7, crossed mid field but again suffered a QB sack, then a holding penalty… followed with a personal foul… and they turned over on downs. Sacramento out-gained Stanford 450 to 390 in yards – both were in the upper 100’s for rushing but Sac had 280 passing to Stanford who had 207.
27-36 loss @ Idaho – Idaho scooped and scored a multiple lateral play at the end of the game after making the go-ahead field goal with just 1 second to go in the game – so it really came right down to the very last play, although I’d guess a “bad beat” in terms of the spread. Interestingly Idaho lead the whole way, it was tied at 27-27 and 3-3 but otherwise Idaho was up in the game. Idaho in this game was able to do what they do best, they ran for 180, passed for 235, and held on to the ball for 38:39 of TOP. Sac had to play a little outside of what they normally do and just had 71 total rushing yards in the game.
31-30 win vs Northern Arizona – NAU was going in to the endzone near the end of this game to take the lead. NAU, down 3, on the Sac 12 yard line with 1:12 left in the game did the one thing you just can’t do in a situation like that – throw an interception. If NAU doesn’t turn that over they’re kicking a field goal and tied with just about 1:00 to go in the game. Who knows how the game would’ve ended then? Sac would take a safety right at the end to run more of the clock to make it a final of a 1 point game. NAU actually outgained Sac, 450 to 418, the ‘jacks passed for 255 and ran for 195. That game-ending pick was just brutal for them.
21-13 win @ Northern Colorado – This outcome worries me, I’ll talk more on this later. In this game UNC somehow came to play, passing for nearly 260 and having almost equal total yards to Sac (334 to 332). UNC even got all the way to the Sac 23 on their last possession in hopes to tie the game up. Looking at the stats I’m not really sure why this game went this way. Sac was 10 for 16 on 3rd, UNC was 6 for 17. Sac did lose 1 fumble. Penalties were about even. UNC did miss a field goal and had a turnover on downs early that Sac turned into a score on the other side.
30-42 loss vs Montana State – I know many of us followed this game. Cats ran all over Sac, almost 330 yards. However Sac 200 rushing and 235 passing – both teams finished about equal in terms of total yards. Sac lost 2 interceptions and had a late turnover on downs in the game and were just 5 for 12 on 3rd down.
51-16 win vs Idaho State – ISU was up 16-14… and then it was all Sac from there, interestingly they did replace their stud QB with reports of him having a sore/hurt shoulder. Sac had nearly 600 yards of offense, held ISU to under 300 passing, and grabbed 4 picks in the game. It was a total blowout from the mid 2nd quarter and on.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game SAC (184 for GRIZ vs 244 for SAC)
Rushing yards per game SAC (174 for GRIZ vs 190 for SAC)
Total offense SAC (358 for GRIZ vs 434 for SAC)
Passing yards allowed per game SAC (248 for GRIZ vs 204 for SAC)
Rushing yards allowed per game GRIZ (76 for GRIZ vs 155 for SAC)
Total defense GRIZ (324 for GRIZ vs 369 for SAC)
Sac’s offense really pushes them ahead – they get 4 total while Montana gets 2.
Offense points scored SAC (28.9 for GRIZ vs 32.75 for SAC)
Defense points allowed GRIZ (16.9 for GRIZ vs 23.75 for SAC)
Turnover margin GRIZ (+9 for GRIZ / +2 for SAC)
Fieldgoal % SAC (54% for GRIZ vs 79% for SAC)
Punt Returns GRIZ (16.2 yards for GRIZ vs 10.2 yards for SAC)
Kick Returns PUSH (19 yards for GRIZ vs 19 yards for SAC)
T.O.P. GRIZ (30:49 for GRIZ vs 30:09 for SAC)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) SAC (58% GRIZ / 54% SAC)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) SAC (66% GRIZ / 71% SAC)
3rd down offense SAC – (43% for GRIZ / 51% for SAC)
3rd down defense GRIZ – (32% allowed for GRIZ vs 37% allowed for SAC)
Sacramento adds 5 more, Montana gets 5, Push gets 1. That puts the final at Sac 9, Montana 7, Push 1.
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Players to Watch:
#1 Kaiden Bennett, QB: IMO one of the candidates for conference MVP. Bennett does it all for Sac, he’s their leading rusher with 407 total rushing yards and is 2nd in rushing TDs with 4. He’s averaging just about 210 passing per game with 12 passing TDs and 6 Ints. I expect Bennett was pulled from the ISU game to not risk further injury, if somehow he doesn’t go freshman Carson Conklin will come in.
#5 Devin Gandy, WR: Sac has quite the stable of receivers, Gandy leads the team in receptions (28) and yards (375), he also has a team high 3 receiving TDs. Gandy is listed at 6-1, 170.
#16 Marshel Martin, IV, TE: A 6-2, 230 pound TE that’s 1st team all conference. He’s got almost 200 yards and 1 TD this season. Last year he had almost 880 receiving yards and 12 TDs, the year before 650 and 6 TDs, the year before that 550 yards and 7 TDs. Statistically 2023 is a down year but you can’t take this guy for granted.
#8 Jared Gipson, WR: The guy who had the close call ruled catch last year, he’s got 367 receiving yards and 2 TDs this season
#25 Elijah Tau-Tolliver, RB: RB I’m not entirely sure who’s healthy and who isn’t. Tau-Tolliver has been the healthy back of late, he had 100 against the cats but just 14 against ISU. He’s got 225 rushing yards on the team (4th best) and a team high 5 TDs. He’s also a pretty good kick returner.
#9 Marcus Fulcher, RB: I kind of feel like we’ll see Fulcher and he just got rest last week against ISU. This guy makes their offense dramatically different. In just 5 games – 2 he left early in with injury – he’s 3rd on team with 255 rushing, he’s got 4 rushing TDs. He also has 82 receiving yards and 2 receiving TDs. If #9 is out there and healthy that’s going to add an even bigger challenge.
#0 Carlos Hill, WR: At risk of just telling us to watch for all their guys on offense it’s hard to differentiate because they spread the ball around so well. A slot WR he’s got 375 receiving yards and 3 TDs this season
#4 Armon Bailey, LB: One of the best in the Big Sky, A 6-1, 235 backer, he leads the team in stops with 69 (nice), he’s also got 3.5 TFLs, a fumble recovery, and 1 sack.
#55 Jett Stanley, DL: A 285 pound D-lineman, he’s got 4 sacks so far this season to go with 26 tackles and 5 QB Hits
#41 DeShawn Lynch, DL: Another near 285 pound D-lineman, he’s got 4.5 sacks, 25 tackles, 5 QB hits as well, and 1 forced fumble.
#3 Dillion Juniel, CB: Color me surprised when I saw he’s 5-9, 167 because he’s 3rd best in tackles (30), has 1 INT, and by far leads the team in PBU’s with 10.
#1 Caleb Nelson, CB: His stats are really low this year, 15 tackles, 1 INT, 6 PBU’s. I’m assuming it’s because teams are avoiding him.
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Keys to a victory
1. Win on 3rd down. A big thing that stood out to me in Sac’s 2 losses was that they had issues converting 3rd down with good efficiency, and they allowed a lot of conversions by their opponents. The Grizzly 3rd down defense needs to ball the hell out on Saturday.
2. Keep #1 under wraps. Bennett scares the hell out of me. He’s a better runner than McCoy at Idaho, maybe not as good of a passer, but his ability to escape regularly creates open spaces in the secondary for long connections. Hopefully our pressure can keep him going backwards instead of side to side… but also can’t let him step up and run right up the middle. Harder said than done, Sac’s OL is probably the best we’ll have seen so far.
3. Keep Sac out of the redzone. Sacramento has scored TDs on 71% of their visits to the opponent RZ and have only 3 trips where they haven’t scored in the red zone, that’s wild. I think the Griz can’t do the “bend don’t break” thing here bc Sac is just so good on offense here. On the other side another worry pops up… Sac’s RZ defense is pretty good… our offense has some issues there. Trading Sac TDs for Griz FG’s is a surefire way to lose.
4. Force turnovers, go +2 or better. Sac’s turnover margin isn’t as strong as Montana’s and it only went positive after getting 4 picks against ISU last week. They should give us some opportunities for picks and big plays. The Grizzlies have to force multiple errors from the Hornets.
5. The Grizzly offense has to find their groove fast and keep it going. Having 33:00+ TOP would be awesome as well. I’m hoping Coach Pease/Hauck have some fun stuff cooked up. We know the Grizzly offense has had issues before against this type of defense that Sac has. We need probably 200+ passing and 200+ rushing in this game.
6. Wa Griz needs to be insane. I tweeted that I want Montana back in black jerseys too, haha. We need the fans to push the Griz because this game will be a grudge match the whole way.
7. Grizzly safeties need to watch the deep shots, Sac will be all over the place trying to catch us creeping up.
8. I think the Grizzly OL has to have their best game of the season. Griz running game needs 5+ yards per carry.
9. Infer nothing from the UNC film. I mentioned this earlier that the UNC results worry me. Here’s why – Montana watched film of Utah Tech beating NAU. Suggestion to me was that many of our team thought if UTT, a team they just crushed, was better than NAU, this game should be a cake walk. Well, now we’ve got a tight UNC game against Sac – and the Griz just rolled UNC. Hopefully the staff reminds the players the last time they made these assumptions
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I pulled records of teams Sac beat, it’s 17-36, then I pulled Montana’s, it’s 27-30. Granted that Sac has played two top 10 teams while Montana has just played one though and I’m counting Ferris’s record vs Stanfords record here.
I think this game is going to come right down to the wire. Sac is a damn good squad with veterans and playmakers everywhere. I like that it’s at home… but that didn’t phase Sac 2 years ago. I do think Montana is riding a wave here and once again, they’re going to find a way if the crowd can stay behind them all night. It’ll be interesting too if the rainy weather influences this game at all, although I’m not sure who that helps or hurts. The Griz have been waiting for this game, it’s been a long time since we beat Sac, let’s get this done. In another nailbiter that we’re all too familiar with I’ll say Montana gets it done in the end, 33-27.
Go Griz!
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