alabamagrizzly
Well-known member
First thing, many of these preferred outcomes are highly unlikely. Also, they won’t be necessary after the Griz send scat fans home on the Trail of Tears. That being said, the purpose of this post is to show what results from the last week of the regular season might be necessary to ensure the Griz advance to the postseason.
I’ll begin with the lesser conferences and work my way up to the Big Sky. I’m starting with the current standings of all teams that are still in the playoff picture and their upcoming matchups and hopeful outcomes. Then I’ll show the desired standings and who will receive the auto bid. Then I’ll go into a brief synopsis of why I predict each outcome.
Bolded teams are playoff potential
Underlined teams are the desired winner
*Auto bid
-not playoff eligible due to transitioning or too few D1 wins
Northeast
St Francis(PA) at 8-2(6-0) has already clinched the auto bid two weeks ago. They play con foe Merrimack this weekend who has the same record but they are still ineligible for postseason play until next year. The best hope for an at large bid is Sacred Heart who could finish 6-5 this weekend with six D1 wins but with zero quality wins, that hope is slim.
Pioneer
St Thomas(Min) 9-1(7-0)
Dayton 8-2(6-1)
Davidson 7-3(5-2)
Butler 7-3(5-2)
This Weekend’s games
St Thomas 9-1(7-0) @ Butler 7-3(5-2)
Dayton 8-2(6-1) @ Davidson 7-3(5-2)
Potential Results
-St Thomas(Min) 10-1(8-0)
*Davidson 8-3(6-2)
Dayton 8-3(6-2)
-Butler 7-4(5-3)
*auto bid
-not playoff eligible due to transitioning or to too few D1 wins
St Thomas is PFL championship eligible but not FCS playoff eligible yet. It don’t really matter which team comes out of here anyway cus unless they’re playing Sac St in the first round, they’ll be going back home pretty quickly. Davidson has the edge with a victory over Butler and hosting Dayton in the season finale. There will be no at large bids coming from the Pioneer.
Atlantic Sun
-Jacksonville St 8-2(4-0)
Central Arkansas 5-5(3-1)
Austin Peay 7-3(3-2)
Eastern Kentucky 6-4(2-2)
Kennesaw St 5-5(1-3)
WAC
-Sam Houston St 5-3(3-1)
Abilene Christian 7-3(4-0)
Stephen F Austin 5-5(2-2)
This weekend’s games
Kenn St 5-5(1-3) @ EKU 6-4(2-2)
Austin Peay 7-3(3-2) @ Alabama
Jacksonville St 8-2(4-0) @ C Ark 5-5(3-1)
SFA 5-5(2-2) @ ACU 7-3(4-0)
Potential Results
Atlantic Sun
-Jacksonville St 9-2(5-0)
-Central Arkansas 5-6(3-2)
Austin Peay 7-4(3-2)
Kennesaw St 6-5(2-3)
Eastern Kentucky 6-5(2-3)
WAC
*Abilene Christian 7-3(5-0)
-Sam Houston St 6-3(4-1)
-Stephen F Austin 5-6(2-3)
*auto bid
-not playoff eligible due to transitioning or too few D1 wins
Since SHS and JVS are not playoff eligible due to their FBS transition, and after Abilene Christian’s upset of SHS, this scenario leaves ACU as the best option for the con auto bid which will be chosen between the WAC con champ and the Atlantic Sun con champ on paper. Austin Peay will be a bubble team with EKU being their lone credible win. The rest of the eligible teams at 6-5 would likely be out of any bubble team conversion for an at large, except maybe EKU who has wins over SE Missouri St and FBS Bowling Green.
Big South
North Carolina A&T 7-3(4-0)
Gardner Webb 5-5(4-0)
This weekend’s games
NCA&T7-3(4-0) @ Gardner Webb 5-5(4-0)
Potential Results
*NCA&T 8-3(5-0)
-Gardner Webb 5-6(4-1)
*auto bid
-not playoff eligible due to too few D1 wins
Gardner Webb winning out and leaving NCA&T at 7-4 and a possible bubble team although with zero quality wins could muddy up the selection process. Best to have NCA&T win.
OVC
SE Missouri St 8-2(4-0)
Tennessee Martin 6-4(4-0)
This weekend’s games
Murray St 2-8(1-3) @ SE Missouri St 8-2(4-0)
Eastern Illinois 3-7(2-2) @ Tennessee Martin 6-4(4-0)
Potential Results
*SE Missouri St 9-2(5-0)
-Tennessee Martin 6-5(4-1)
*auto bid
-not playoff eligible due to too few D1 wins
SE Missouri St and Tenn Martin are both 4-0 in con with one game to go, but not against each other. Somehow, with only five con games in the OVC, everyone does not play each other. SE has the better resume and could be a likely bubble team if Tenn Martin wins the con. Less competition for the Griz if SE wins the auto and UTM loses out. SEMS could be a potential seed though in this scenario.
Patriot
Holy Cross 10-0(5-0)
Fordham 8-2(4-1)
This weekend’s games
Holy Cross 10-0(5-0) @ Georgetown 2-7(1-3)
Colgate 3-6(2-2) @ Fordham 8-2(4-1)
Potential Results
*Holy Cross 10-1(5-1)
Fordham 8-3(4-2)
*auto bid
Holy Cross owns the tie breaker and will likely win the con. Both of these games are likely to go in Holy Cross and Fordham’s favor anyway and more then likely both will still advance to the postseason, even with a loss. A loss may hurt Holy Cross’s chances of a higher seed but probably not fall out of seeding completely with signature a win over FBS Buffalo.
Southland
Incarnate Word 9-1(5-1)
SE Louisiana 7-3(4-1)
Northwestern St 4-6(4-1)
This weekend’s games
SE Louisiana 7-3(4-1) @ Nichols St 3-7(3-3)
Incarnate Word 9-1(5-1) @ Northwestern St 4-6(4-1)
Potential Results
*Incarnate Word 10-1(6-1)
SE Louisiana 6-5(3-3)
*auto bid
A Northwestern St upset of Incarnate Word and a SEL loss would give NWSt the con title and open the door for two at large bids for a 9-2 Incarnate Word(a win over FBS Nevada) and a 7-4 SEL(wins over Incarnate Word and Jacksonville St). An IW loss and a SEL win will give SEL the title, eliminate NWSt, and leave IW for a likely at large bid. That being said, IW should win which will give them the outright auto bid and put them in the seed conversation. A win for SEL will all but guarantee them an at large where a loss may complicate their selection a bit although they’ll still have a strong resume for a 7-4 bubble team.
Southern
Samford 9-1(7-0)
Furman 8-2(6-1)
Chattanooga 7-3(5-2)
Mercer 7-3(5-2)
Western Carolina 5-5(3-4)
This weekend’s games
Wofford 3-7(3-4) @ Furman 8-2(6-1)
Mercer 7-3(5-2) @ Samford 9-1(7-0)
Chattanooga 7-3(5-2) @ W Carolina 5-5(3-4)
Potential Results
*Samford 10-1(8-0)
Furman 8-3(6-2)
Chattanooga 7-4(5-3)
Mercer 7-4(5-3)
Western Carolina 6-5(4-4)
*auto bid
Samford cliched the auto bid last Saturday with their win and previously beating Furman earlier in the year which just leaves the potential at large bids up for discussion. Furman will be in, win or lose and they’ll likely win facing a poor Wofford squad at home, albeit in a heated rivalry game. Chat has a slightly stronger resume with their best win coming against Mercer while Mercer possibly and W Carolina likely are out of the bubble convo with zero quality wins.
CAA
William & Mary 9-1(6-1)
Richmond 8-2(6-1)
New Hampshire 7-3(6-1)
Elon 8-3(6-2)
Delaware 7-3(4-3)
Rhode Island 6-4(4-3)
Towson 5-5(3-4)
Villanova 5-5(3-4)
This weekend’s games
William & Mary 9-1(6-1) @ Richmond 8-2(6-1)
Delaware 7-3(4-3) @ Villanova 5-5(3-4)
New Hampshire 7-3(6-1) @ Maine 2-8(2-5)
Albany 3-7(2-5) @ Rhode Island 6-4(4-3)
Hampton 4-6(1-6) @ Towson 5-5(3-4)
Elon 8-3(6-2) Bye
Potential Results
*Richmond 9-2(7-1)
Elon 8-3(6-2)
William & Mary 9-2(6-2)
New Hampshire 7-4(6-2)
Villanova 6-5(4-4)
Delaware 7-4(4-4)
Rhode Island 6-5(4-4)
-Towson 5-6(3-5)
*auto bid
-not playoff eligible due to too few D1 wins
Holy Crap, the CAA is a mess like us. W&M, Richmond, and New Hampshire all are sitting at 6-1 in the con but W&M and Richmond face off in their finale, eliminating one of them from the auto bid. The simplest answer is for Richmond to win for they own all the tiebreakers or for NH to lose to remove them from the equation and then the W&M/Rich winner takes all. If W&M and NH both win, then it starts to get hectic with, I believe, tie breakers going to records against common opponents and may have to go past that. Either way, win or lose, Rich and W&M are going to advance along with Elon who finished their season on Saturday. If NH loses, they’ll be 7-4 overall with quality wins over Elon, Rhode Island, and Towson and could be a bubble team for an at large. The same goes for Delaware with wins over Rhode Island, Towson, and FBS Navy. That’s five potential playoff teams with Villanova(with a win over Del) and RI(if they lose to Albany while having a victory over Elon under their belts) still in the discussion at 6-5. What a mess.
MVC
South Dakota St 10-1(8-0)
North Dakota St 8-2(6-1)
North Dakota 7-3(5-2)
Youngstown St 6-4(4-3)
Southern Illinois 5-5(4-3)
Northern Iowa 5-5(4-3)
Illinois St 5-5(3-4)
This weekend’s games
South Dakota St 10-1(8-0) Bye
North Dakota 7-3(5-2) @ North Dakota St 8-2(6-1)
Southern Illinois 5-5(4-3) @ Youngstown St 6-4(4-3)
Northern Iowa 5-5(4-3) @ South Dakota 3-7(2-5)
Western Illinois 0-10(0-7) @ Illinois St 5-5(3-4)
Potential Results
*South Dakota St 10-1(8-0)
North Dakota St 9-2(7-1)
North Dakota 7-4(5-3)
Youngstown St 7-4(5-3)
-Southern Illinois 5-6(4-4)
-Northern Iowa 5-6(4-4)
-Illinois St 5-6(3-5)
*auto bid
-not playoff eligible due to too few D1 wins
SDSU likely locked up the #1 seed after finishing their regular season on Saturday. That means they’ll have two weeks off before their first playoff game. Not sure if that’ll hurt them but I doubt it. NDSU will likely lock up a seed also with a win in their finale vs UND who will be a 7-4 bubble team with wins over YSU, N Iowa, and Abilene Christian. The SIU(5-5)/YSU(6-4) matchup is a tuff one to prefer an outcome. Either way the winner is a potential bubble team. If YSU wins, they’d be 7-4 with a quality win over Illinois St and SIU. I think they might be less likely though then a 6-5 SIU squad with wins over YSU, Illinois St, UND, and FBS Northwestern. A 5-6 SIU, UNI, and Illinois St would all be eliminated due to too few D1 wins.
Big Sky
Sacramento St 10-0(7-0)
scats 9-1(7-0)
Weber St 8-2(5-2)
UC Davis 6-4(5-2)
Idaho 6-4(5-2)
Go Griz 7-3(4-3)
This weekend’s games
Go Griz 7-3(4-3) @ scats 9-1(7-0)
UC Davis 6-4(5-2) @ Sacramento St 10-0(7-0)
Weber St 8-2(5-2) @ Northern Arizona 3-7(2-5)
Idaho 6-4(5-2) @ Idaho St 1-9(1-6)
Potential Results
*Sacramento St 11-0(8-0)
scats 9-2(7-1)
Weber St 8-3(5-3)
Go Griz 8-3(5-3)
UC Davis 6-5(5-3)
Idaho 6-5(5-3)
*auto bid
While knocking off UCD and possibly ending their little miracle run and season, Sac St will put themselves in the #1 seed convo along side SDSU. UCD could be a 6-5 bubble team with a win over Idaho but not likely. Same goes for an Idaho squad if they cough up their last game to their in state rival. A Griz win over the scats might not take the scats out of the running for a seed but that’s not what Griz/scat is about anyway. Weber is in win or lose but a loss gives them the same record we’ll have.
Let the final week festivities begin and Go Griz!!
I’ll begin with the lesser conferences and work my way up to the Big Sky. I’m starting with the current standings of all teams that are still in the playoff picture and their upcoming matchups and hopeful outcomes. Then I’ll show the desired standings and who will receive the auto bid. Then I’ll go into a brief synopsis of why I predict each outcome.
Bolded teams are playoff potential
Underlined teams are the desired winner
*Auto bid
-not playoff eligible due to transitioning or too few D1 wins
Northeast
St Francis(PA) at 8-2(6-0) has already clinched the auto bid two weeks ago. They play con foe Merrimack this weekend who has the same record but they are still ineligible for postseason play until next year. The best hope for an at large bid is Sacred Heart who could finish 6-5 this weekend with six D1 wins but with zero quality wins, that hope is slim.
Pioneer
St Thomas(Min) 9-1(7-0)
Dayton 8-2(6-1)
Davidson 7-3(5-2)
Butler 7-3(5-2)
This Weekend’s games
St Thomas 9-1(7-0) @ Butler 7-3(5-2)
Dayton 8-2(6-1) @ Davidson 7-3(5-2)
Potential Results
-St Thomas(Min) 10-1(8-0)
*Davidson 8-3(6-2)
Dayton 8-3(6-2)
-Butler 7-4(5-3)
*auto bid
-not playoff eligible due to transitioning or to too few D1 wins
St Thomas is PFL championship eligible but not FCS playoff eligible yet. It don’t really matter which team comes out of here anyway cus unless they’re playing Sac St in the first round, they’ll be going back home pretty quickly. Davidson has the edge with a victory over Butler and hosting Dayton in the season finale. There will be no at large bids coming from the Pioneer.
Atlantic Sun
-Jacksonville St 8-2(4-0)
Central Arkansas 5-5(3-1)
Austin Peay 7-3(3-2)
Eastern Kentucky 6-4(2-2)
Kennesaw St 5-5(1-3)
WAC
-Sam Houston St 5-3(3-1)
Abilene Christian 7-3(4-0)
Stephen F Austin 5-5(2-2)
This weekend’s games
Kenn St 5-5(1-3) @ EKU 6-4(2-2)
Austin Peay 7-3(3-2) @ Alabama
Jacksonville St 8-2(4-0) @ C Ark 5-5(3-1)
SFA 5-5(2-2) @ ACU 7-3(4-0)
Potential Results
Atlantic Sun
-Jacksonville St 9-2(5-0)
-Central Arkansas 5-6(3-2)
Austin Peay 7-4(3-2)
Kennesaw St 6-5(2-3)
Eastern Kentucky 6-5(2-3)
WAC
*Abilene Christian 7-3(5-0)
-Sam Houston St 6-3(4-1)
-Stephen F Austin 5-6(2-3)
*auto bid
-not playoff eligible due to transitioning or too few D1 wins
Since SHS and JVS are not playoff eligible due to their FBS transition, and after Abilene Christian’s upset of SHS, this scenario leaves ACU as the best option for the con auto bid which will be chosen between the WAC con champ and the Atlantic Sun con champ on paper. Austin Peay will be a bubble team with EKU being their lone credible win. The rest of the eligible teams at 6-5 would likely be out of any bubble team conversion for an at large, except maybe EKU who has wins over SE Missouri St and FBS Bowling Green.
Big South
North Carolina A&T 7-3(4-0)
Gardner Webb 5-5(4-0)
This weekend’s games
NCA&T7-3(4-0) @ Gardner Webb 5-5(4-0)
Potential Results
*NCA&T 8-3(5-0)
-Gardner Webb 5-6(4-1)
*auto bid
-not playoff eligible due to too few D1 wins
Gardner Webb winning out and leaving NCA&T at 7-4 and a possible bubble team although with zero quality wins could muddy up the selection process. Best to have NCA&T win.
OVC
SE Missouri St 8-2(4-0)
Tennessee Martin 6-4(4-0)
This weekend’s games
Murray St 2-8(1-3) @ SE Missouri St 8-2(4-0)
Eastern Illinois 3-7(2-2) @ Tennessee Martin 6-4(4-0)
Potential Results
*SE Missouri St 9-2(5-0)
-Tennessee Martin 6-5(4-1)
*auto bid
-not playoff eligible due to too few D1 wins
SE Missouri St and Tenn Martin are both 4-0 in con with one game to go, but not against each other. Somehow, with only five con games in the OVC, everyone does not play each other. SE has the better resume and could be a likely bubble team if Tenn Martin wins the con. Less competition for the Griz if SE wins the auto and UTM loses out. SEMS could be a potential seed though in this scenario.
Patriot
Holy Cross 10-0(5-0)
Fordham 8-2(4-1)
This weekend’s games
Holy Cross 10-0(5-0) @ Georgetown 2-7(1-3)
Colgate 3-6(2-2) @ Fordham 8-2(4-1)
Potential Results
*Holy Cross 10-1(5-1)
Fordham 8-3(4-2)
*auto bid
Holy Cross owns the tie breaker and will likely win the con. Both of these games are likely to go in Holy Cross and Fordham’s favor anyway and more then likely both will still advance to the postseason, even with a loss. A loss may hurt Holy Cross’s chances of a higher seed but probably not fall out of seeding completely with signature a win over FBS Buffalo.
Southland
Incarnate Word 9-1(5-1)
SE Louisiana 7-3(4-1)
Northwestern St 4-6(4-1)
This weekend’s games
SE Louisiana 7-3(4-1) @ Nichols St 3-7(3-3)
Incarnate Word 9-1(5-1) @ Northwestern St 4-6(4-1)
Potential Results
*Incarnate Word 10-1(6-1)
SE Louisiana 6-5(3-3)
*auto bid
A Northwestern St upset of Incarnate Word and a SEL loss would give NWSt the con title and open the door for two at large bids for a 9-2 Incarnate Word(a win over FBS Nevada) and a 7-4 SEL(wins over Incarnate Word and Jacksonville St). An IW loss and a SEL win will give SEL the title, eliminate NWSt, and leave IW for a likely at large bid. That being said, IW should win which will give them the outright auto bid and put them in the seed conversation. A win for SEL will all but guarantee them an at large where a loss may complicate their selection a bit although they’ll still have a strong resume for a 7-4 bubble team.
Southern
Samford 9-1(7-0)
Furman 8-2(6-1)
Chattanooga 7-3(5-2)
Mercer 7-3(5-2)
Western Carolina 5-5(3-4)
This weekend’s games
Wofford 3-7(3-4) @ Furman 8-2(6-1)
Mercer 7-3(5-2) @ Samford 9-1(7-0)
Chattanooga 7-3(5-2) @ W Carolina 5-5(3-4)
Potential Results
*Samford 10-1(8-0)
Furman 8-3(6-2)
Chattanooga 7-4(5-3)
Mercer 7-4(5-3)
Western Carolina 6-5(4-4)
*auto bid
Samford cliched the auto bid last Saturday with their win and previously beating Furman earlier in the year which just leaves the potential at large bids up for discussion. Furman will be in, win or lose and they’ll likely win facing a poor Wofford squad at home, albeit in a heated rivalry game. Chat has a slightly stronger resume with their best win coming against Mercer while Mercer possibly and W Carolina likely are out of the bubble convo with zero quality wins.
CAA
William & Mary 9-1(6-1)
Richmond 8-2(6-1)
New Hampshire 7-3(6-1)
Elon 8-3(6-2)
Delaware 7-3(4-3)
Rhode Island 6-4(4-3)
Towson 5-5(3-4)
Villanova 5-5(3-4)
This weekend’s games
William & Mary 9-1(6-1) @ Richmond 8-2(6-1)
Delaware 7-3(4-3) @ Villanova 5-5(3-4)
New Hampshire 7-3(6-1) @ Maine 2-8(2-5)
Albany 3-7(2-5) @ Rhode Island 6-4(4-3)
Hampton 4-6(1-6) @ Towson 5-5(3-4)
Elon 8-3(6-2) Bye
Potential Results
*Richmond 9-2(7-1)
Elon 8-3(6-2)
William & Mary 9-2(6-2)
New Hampshire 7-4(6-2)
Villanova 6-5(4-4)
Delaware 7-4(4-4)
Rhode Island 6-5(4-4)
-Towson 5-6(3-5)
*auto bid
-not playoff eligible due to too few D1 wins
Holy Crap, the CAA is a mess like us. W&M, Richmond, and New Hampshire all are sitting at 6-1 in the con but W&M and Richmond face off in their finale, eliminating one of them from the auto bid. The simplest answer is for Richmond to win for they own all the tiebreakers or for NH to lose to remove them from the equation and then the W&M/Rich winner takes all. If W&M and NH both win, then it starts to get hectic with, I believe, tie breakers going to records against common opponents and may have to go past that. Either way, win or lose, Rich and W&M are going to advance along with Elon who finished their season on Saturday. If NH loses, they’ll be 7-4 overall with quality wins over Elon, Rhode Island, and Towson and could be a bubble team for an at large. The same goes for Delaware with wins over Rhode Island, Towson, and FBS Navy. That’s five potential playoff teams with Villanova(with a win over Del) and RI(if they lose to Albany while having a victory over Elon under their belts) still in the discussion at 6-5. What a mess.
MVC
South Dakota St 10-1(8-0)
North Dakota St 8-2(6-1)
North Dakota 7-3(5-2)
Youngstown St 6-4(4-3)
Southern Illinois 5-5(4-3)
Northern Iowa 5-5(4-3)
Illinois St 5-5(3-4)
This weekend’s games
South Dakota St 10-1(8-0) Bye
North Dakota 7-3(5-2) @ North Dakota St 8-2(6-1)
Southern Illinois 5-5(4-3) @ Youngstown St 6-4(4-3)
Northern Iowa 5-5(4-3) @ South Dakota 3-7(2-5)
Western Illinois 0-10(0-7) @ Illinois St 5-5(3-4)
Potential Results
*South Dakota St 10-1(8-0)
North Dakota St 9-2(7-1)
North Dakota 7-4(5-3)
Youngstown St 7-4(5-3)
-Southern Illinois 5-6(4-4)
-Northern Iowa 5-6(4-4)
-Illinois St 5-6(3-5)
*auto bid
-not playoff eligible due to too few D1 wins
SDSU likely locked up the #1 seed after finishing their regular season on Saturday. That means they’ll have two weeks off before their first playoff game. Not sure if that’ll hurt them but I doubt it. NDSU will likely lock up a seed also with a win in their finale vs UND who will be a 7-4 bubble team with wins over YSU, N Iowa, and Abilene Christian. The SIU(5-5)/YSU(6-4) matchup is a tuff one to prefer an outcome. Either way the winner is a potential bubble team. If YSU wins, they’d be 7-4 with a quality win over Illinois St and SIU. I think they might be less likely though then a 6-5 SIU squad with wins over YSU, Illinois St, UND, and FBS Northwestern. A 5-6 SIU, UNI, and Illinois St would all be eliminated due to too few D1 wins.
Big Sky
Sacramento St 10-0(7-0)
scats 9-1(7-0)
Weber St 8-2(5-2)
UC Davis 6-4(5-2)
Idaho 6-4(5-2)
Go Griz 7-3(4-3)
This weekend’s games
Go Griz 7-3(4-3) @ scats 9-1(7-0)
UC Davis 6-4(5-2) @ Sacramento St 10-0(7-0)
Weber St 8-2(5-2) @ Northern Arizona 3-7(2-5)
Idaho 6-4(5-2) @ Idaho St 1-9(1-6)
Potential Results
*Sacramento St 11-0(8-0)
scats 9-2(7-1)
Weber St 8-3(5-3)
Go Griz 8-3(5-3)
UC Davis 6-5(5-3)
Idaho 6-5(5-3)
*auto bid
While knocking off UCD and possibly ending their little miracle run and season, Sac St will put themselves in the #1 seed convo along side SDSU. UCD could be a 6-5 bubble team with a win over Idaho but not likely. Same goes for an Idaho squad if they cough up their last game to their in state rival. A Griz win over the scats might not take the scats out of the running for a seed but that’s not what Griz/scat is about anyway. Weber is in win or lose but a loss gives them the same record we’ll have.
Let the final week festivities begin and Go Griz!!
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