Predicting the standings

[HookedonGriz]

Box. Still doesn’t make any difference. Show up, play, win. Complaining about a schedule is counterproductive. By the way, naps are great.

Spanky, I am not complaining from a Griz perspective, it is an entire BSC deal. It makes a difference, and for the most part history demonstrates such. I get your "show up, play, win" mantra, but the unbalanced schedule does not give all teams the same path to the top of the standings, and without doubt, some of those paths are much easier than others.

Agree, good post

 

[MikeyGriz]

Box, I understand and agree. However, in sports schedules, seedings often aren’t fair in the eyes of the participants. Most of my background in athletics has been in an individual sport and I have agonized over this subject. Bottom line: beat everyone and you don’t have to worry about it.

Agree with your bottom line, winning cures a lot of ills!

 

[IdahoGrizFan]

Why all of the concern about our schedule? What difference does it make? If we want to be the best, we have to play and beat the best. Quit complaining about the schedule.

I have the right to gripe....

 

[MikeyGriz]

Why all of the concern about our schedule? What difference does it make? If we want to be the best, we have to play and beat the best. Quit complaining about the schedule.

I have the right to gripe....

You have to fight, for the right...……….

 

[BWahlberg]

Figure we needed something new to talk about. Let’s see if we can predict what the big sky standings will look like in November.

1. UC Davis- no brainer IMO
2. Eastern- unfortunately
3. UM- maybe scratching your head but I think we’ll all be pleasantly surprised
4. msu- hate to say it, but it’s true
5. Weber- think this is the year they finally take a step back
6. PSU- dark horse. I’m telling you. Watch out
7. NAU- won’t be this low in the standings for long
8. ISU- need an answer at QB
9. SAC- lots of veteran players
10. Idaho- not much to say here
11. SUU- could be higher, but don’t really know what to expect
12. UNC- usually where they are every year. Collins gets fired
13. Cal Poly- total overhaul on offense

The top 5 teams all get into the playoffs. Let’s see how you all would rank it.

Hmm... my take:

1. EWU - soft schedule + a good team
2. Weber - tougher schedule but I'm a believer in what Jay Hill is doing
3. Cats - Contingent on who wins the brawl, move the Griz ahead of MSU if they do
4. Montana - We're going to be in the mix, OL / DL depending
5. NAU - A healthy Cookus could make all the difference, lots of transfers in
6. UCD - I think this is the team that doesn't live up to the hype this year
7. SUU - For some reason I think they'll be respectable this year
8. Idaho State - I'm just going to assume they'll both score & allow lots of points again
9. PSU - Last year of Barnyball I think
10. Idaho - Holy brutal schedule Batman
11. UNC - Can they keep their senior QB healthy? Probably Collins last year too
11. Sac - New coaches could make it a tough go for their first year
13. Poly - Nothings going too great in SLO right now

 

[BDizzle]

Figure we needed something new to talk about. Let’s see if we can predict what the big sky standings will look like in November.

1. UC Davis- no brainer IMO
2. Eastern- unfortunately
3. UM- maybe scratching your head but I think we’ll all be pleasantly surprised
4. msu- hate to say it, but it’s true
5. Weber- think this is the year they finally take a step back
6. PSU- dark horse. I’m telling you. Watch out
7. NAU- won’t be this low in the standings for long
8. ISU- need an answer at QB
9. SAC- lots of veteran players
10. Idaho- not much to say here
11. SUU- could be higher, but don’t really know what to expect
12. UNC- usually where they are every year. Collins gets fired
13. Cal Poly- total overhaul on offense

The top 5 teams all get into the playoffs. Let’s see how you all would rank it.

Hmm... my take:

1. EWU - soft schedule + a good team
2. Weber - tougher schedule but I'm a believer in what Jay Hill is doing
3. Cats - Contingent on who wins the brawl, move the Griz ahead of MSU if they do
4. Montana - We're going to be in the mix, OL / DL depending
5. NAU - A healthy Cookus could make all the difference, lots of transfers in
6. UCD - I think this is the team that doesn't live up to the hype this year
7. SUU - For some reason I think they'll be respectable this year
8. Idaho State - I'm just going to assume they'll both score & allow lots of points again
9. PSU - Last year of Barnyball I think
10. Idaho - Holy brutal schedule Batman
11. UNC - Can they keep their senior QB healthy? Probably Collins last year too
11. Sac - New coaches could make it a tough go for their first year
13. Poly - Nothings going too great in SLO right now

So as of right now, you are predicting that cats to beat the Griz?

 

[BWahlberg]

Figure we needed something new to talk about. Let’s see if we can predict what the big sky standings will look like in November.

1. UC Davis- no brainer IMO
2. Eastern- unfortunately
3. UM- maybe scratching your head but I think we’ll all be pleasantly surprised
4. msu- hate to say it, but it’s true
5. Weber- think this is the year they finally take a step back
6. PSU- dark horse. I’m telling you. Watch out
7. NAU- won’t be this low in the standings for long
8. ISU- need an answer at QB
9. SAC- lots of veteran players
10. Idaho- not much to say here
11. SUU- could be higher, but don’t really know what to expect
12. UNC- usually where they are every year. Collins gets fired
13. Cal Poly- total overhaul on offense

The top 5 teams all get into the playoffs. Let’s see how you all would rank it.

Hmm... my take:

1. EWU - soft schedule + a good team
2. Weber - tougher schedule but I'm a believer in what Jay Hill is doing
3. Cats - Contingent on who wins the brawl, move the Griz ahead of MSU if they do
4. Montana - We're going to be in the mix, OL / DL depending
5. NAU - A healthy Cookus could make all the difference, lots of transfers in
6. UCD - I think this is the team that doesn't live up to the hype this year
7. SUU - For some reason I think they'll be respectable this year
8. Idaho State - I'm just going to assume they'll both score & allow lots of points again
9. PSU - Last year of Barnyball I think
10. Idaho - Holy brutal schedule Batman
11. UNC - Can they keep their senior QB healthy? Probably Collins last year too
11. Sac - New coaches could make it a tough go for their first year
13. Poly - Nothings going too great in SLO right now

So as of right now, you are predicting that cats to beat the Griz?

3 years in a row now, Griz need to prove they’re turning the corner before one can start assuming they can do that. If Rovig locks it in the cats could be one of the best in the conference.

 

[rivercat]

I think MSU has a 95% chance of starting the season 0-3 and there’s a long way back to the top there unless a qb comes out of nowhere and plays really good. Question on Poly, are they going away from the triple option with the overhaul or just retooling? As far as we’re concerned, I see us having a better team but finishing in the 7 win range because of schedule.

I'm sorry but I can't let this pass. I hope you don't use math for anything other than counting your sheep.

The probability of three independent events occuring is equal to the sum of the probability of each independent event occuring. I'm assuming that you would assign a 100% probability that TT wins. For simplicity, let's say SEMO and WIU have an equal chance of beating MSU. For there to be a 95% of MSU going 0-3, MSU has to have a 0% chance against TT, a 2.5% against SEMO, and a 2.5% chance against WIU. Want to play poker sometime?

 

[signedbewildered]

......TO PAAAAAAAAAARTY!!!!!

*clears throat*

Carry on.

 

[dupuyer griz]

I think MSU has a 95% chance of starting the season 0-3 and there’s a long way back to the top there unless a qb comes out of nowhere and plays really good. Question on Poly, are they going away from the triple option with the overhaul or just retooling? As far as we’re concerned, I see us having a better team but finishing in the 7 win range because of schedule.

I'm sorry but I can't let this pass. I hope you don't use math for anything other than counting your sheep.

The probability of three independent events occuring is equal to the sum of the probability of each independent event occuring. I'm assuming that you would assign a 100% probability that TT wins. For simplicity, let's say SEMO and WIU have an equal chance of beating MSU. For there to be a 95% of MSU going 0-3, MSU has to have a 0% chance against TT, a 2.5% against SEMO, and a 2.5% chance against WIU. Want to play poker sometime?

As it is now, I stand by my statement. If a quarterback shows he can complete more than 9 balls a game, I’m willing to change my stance. If they’re truly moving Anderson strictly to defense as I was told, offense is going to be seriously short as it stands now. (I haven’t looked at BSN in 6 months so there may be more happening than I know). Like I said, I’m willing to change that statement, but not yet.

 

[garizzalies]

Figure we needed something new to talk about. Let’s see if we can predict what the big sky standings will look like in November.

1. UC Davis- no brainer IMO
2. Eastern- unfortunately
3. UM- maybe scratching your head but I think we’ll all be pleasantly surprised
4. msu- hate to say it, but it’s true
5. Weber- think this is the year they finally take a step back
6. PSU- dark horse. I’m telling you. Watch out
7. NAU- won’t be this low in the standings for long
8. ISU- need an answer at QB
9. SAC- lots of veteran players
10. Idaho- not much to say here
11. SUU- could be higher, but don’t really know what to expect
12. UNC- usually where they are every year. Collins gets fired
13. Cal Poly- total overhaul on offense

The top 5 teams all get into the playoffs. Let’s see how you all would rank it.

Hmm... my take:

1. EWU - soft schedule + a good team
2. Weber - tougher schedule but I'm a believer in what Jay Hill is doing
3. Cats - Contingent on who wins the brawl, move the Griz ahead of MSU if they do
4. Montana - We're going to be in the mix, OL / DL depending
5. NAU - A healthy Cookus could make all the difference, lots of transfers in
6. UCD - I think this is the team that doesn't live up to the hype this year
7. SUU - For some reason I think they'll be respectable this year
8. Idaho State - I'm just going to assume they'll both score & allow lots of points again
9. PSU - Last year of Barnyball I think
10. Idaho - Holy brutal schedule Batman
11. UNC - Can they keep their senior QB healthy? Probably Collins last year too
11. Sac - New coaches could make it a tough go for their first year
13. Poly - Nothings going too great in SLO right now

So as of right now, you are predicting that cats to beat the Griz?

3 years in a row now, Griz need to prove they’re turning the corner before one can start assuming they can do that. If Rovig locks it in the cats could be one of the best in the conference.

I agree with almost everything; nice post.
I’m not drinking the Dawkins koolaid yet and Doss was a huge loss.
I also agree the Griz have to prove it and state college should be ranked higher at this point.
But I believe state-c has a lower floor and a better chance of face-planting through it than the Griz.
Come to think of it, I think that most years, but this year seems to be one of those years where the pre-season champ talk is making the shitpond bubble over. And that never ends well.
You mentioned a big “if” for RSBV to lock it in? But the probability of three independent events occurring is equal to the sum of the probability of each independent event occurring (notice how I correctly spelled “occurring” twice!)
RSBV already won ro sham bo, twice! That’s how he got the name. And that means the chance of him doing it three times in a row is greatly diminished.

 

[Catsrgrood]

This is what I went with when I posted last week on BN:

1. EWU- agree with BW on this one, this is a really talented team going up against a fairly easy schedule. I see them losing maybe 1 conference game. I think the Big Sky is theirs for the taking this year.

2. UCD- I guess I’m on that Hawkins bus a little bit, they may fall short this year, but I just think that guy is getting plugged into some serious California talent in his recruiting and they’ll be near the top for the foreseeable future.

3. Weber- as it’s been mentioned, Jay Hill is legit and doing it right in Ogden

4. MSU- as talented of a roster as they’ve had in years, just a big question mark at QB. If Rovig/Bauman are solid, they’ll be hard to beat and near the top of the standings, if they fall flat the team will still be good, but likely in that 5-6 range in the conference.

5. UM- there is talent here for sure and I assume Bobby will have them playing tough in year 2. OL and DL are major question marks still.

6. NAU- could surprise some people if they’re fully healthy this year. Certainly not a bad team but I just don’t see them at the same level as the top 5 teams.

7. Idaho- who knows... Tough OOC schedule, may be solid in conference

8. ISU- lost some talent from last year, but should still be a solid team, I think they’ll be in the .500 range.

9. PSU- could end up higher than this, I know a lot of people are saying they could make some noise this year.

The rest:
10. Cal Poly
11.Sac St
12. SUU
13. UNC

 

[IdahoGrizFan]

Why all of the concern about our schedule? What difference does it make? If we want to be the best, we have to play and beat the best. Quit complaining about the schedule.

I have the right to gripe....

You have to fight, for the right...……….

You are right and I just might.......

 

[SaskGriz]

1. UM - Griz go undefeated in the BSC, only loss to Oregon.
2. EWU - Too much talent, they go undefeated at home but because of the facilities fans on TV can't watch and fans in Cheney don't watch.
3. Cal - Davis - Then in the off season in a hurry to move up they actually overshot both the MWC and the PAC 12 and end up next year in Vince McMahon's XFL. Which folds 8 minutes into the first game.
4. Weber St continue to win, no one knows why, or cares.
5. NAU - Case Cookus gains National recognition, this time for a blindside crackback on Fisty.
6. PSU - Hipster fans flock to the "football" realize that it's the wrong shaped ball, return to mustache waxing.
7. Idaho - They still have FBS talent, so does UTEP.
8. Sac St - They have a lot of seniors, so they know the game. They just can't play it.
9. ISU - They lost a lot of players but they lost them around Pocatello so how far could they get? They'll be found.
10. Cal Poly - The triple option, it will get them a win or two. And they always have a decent defense.
11. SUU may not get a first down this year. Will still win a game or two.
12. MSU
13. UNC: University of No Chance

 

[Phat Cat]

1. UM - Griz go undefeated in the BSC, only loss to Oregon.
2. EWU - Too much talent, they go undefeated at home but because of the facilities fans on TV can't watch and fans in Cheney don't watch.
3. Cal - Davis - Then in the off season in a hurry to move up they actually overshot both the MWC and the PAC 12 and end up next year in Vince McMahon's XFL. Which folds 8 minutes into the first game.
4. Weber St continue to win, no one knows why, or cares.
5. NAU - Case Cookus gains National recognition, this time for a blindside crackback on Fisty.
6. PSU - Hipster fans flock to the "football" realize that it's the wrong shaped ball, return to mustache waxing.
7. Idaho - They still have FBS talent, so does UTEP.
8. Sac St - They have a lot of seniors, so they know the game. They just can't play it.
9. ISU - They lost a lot of players but they lost them around Pocatello so how far could they get? They'll be found.
10. Cal Poly - The triple option, it will get them a win or two. And they always have a decent defense.
11. SUU may not get a first down this year. Will still win a game or two.
12. MSU
13. UNC: University of No Chance

Step away from the pipe Hoser.

 

[getgrizzy]

Montana is going to sneak up on a lot of people this year.

We aren’t sneaking up on anyone and never will. Teams still circle us on their calendars, don’t kid yourself. We might surprise some people by doing better than expected, but definitely not sneaking up on anyone. After we win games the opposing coach isn’t going to say he didn’t expect us to be so good.

 

[nzone]

I'm only going to predict the top 4:

1. ewu: lots of talent, good coaching and an easy schedule.
2. davis: quarterback and offensive line and good coaching
3. weebs: good coaching, tough kids
4. Montana: Good offense, sound defense, consistent coaching.

 

[SloStang]

Cal Poly may not be 2019 Big Sky Champions, but they will not finish at the bottom. Teams that think so just may find themselves with a loss after facing the Mustangs. They will be much better on defense and will be more diverse on offense in 2019. They went 4-4 in the Big Sky last year and I think they will do better in 2019.

 

[retiredfan]

When you beat the best you are the best, schedules don’t matter

 

[kemajic]

When you beat the best you are the best, schedules don’t matter

True when you have a balanced schedule, which the BSC doesn't. Nevertheless, go 8-0 in conf. and you have a real good chance to be the best.