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Poll Guesses (vs STATS.com) – Oct 1

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
It might be a bit early to start these again, but the polls have been so crazy, I thought I’d have some fun with it anyway. By “crazy,” I mean things have been even weirder than I can remember in past years. Example: North Dakota (1-4), being just 82 votes out the top-25. Also, wins and losses have resulted in much bigger swings in position … with no particular connection to the strength (or weakness) of the opponent. We’ve seen losses drop mid-level teams out of the top-25 and, conversely, teams with relatively few votes leap well into the top-25 after a run-of-the-mill win.

So here it is, just to give us something different to chew on.

Poll Guess, Team (record) [Previous rank]
1 James Madison (5-0) [1]
2 North Dakota State (4-0) [2]
3 Jacksonville State (3-1) [5]
4 Youngstown State (3-1) [6]
5 Wofford (4-0) [7]
6 EWU (3-2) [9]
7 Central Arkansas (3-1) [11]
8 South Dakota (4-0) [10]
9 South Dakota State (3-1) [4]
10 Sam Houston State (3-1) [3]
11 Illinois State (4-0) [12]
12 Villanova (3-2) [14]
13 New Hampshire (4-1) [15]
14 Richmond (2-2) [16]
15 Western Illinois (3-1) [13]
16 Citadel (3-1) [8]
17 North Carolina A&T (5-0) [17]
18 Weber State (4-1) [20]
19 Samford (3-2) [25]
20 Elon (4-1) [23]
21 Grambling State (3-1) [21]
22 Stony Brook (4-1) [NR]
23 Northern Iowa (2-2) [NR]
24 Montana (3-2) [NR]
25 Albany (3-2) [19]

Of course, we had quite a few games that pitted ranked teams against each other. So three top-10 teams ended up with losses. For the Griz, that doesn’t mean anything since UM was too far down in the voting last week. What could be important is that four of the bottom eight teams lost. Now Albany lost to Elon, a team that’s clearly on the rise … so I figure that could hang on to the bottom spot. But given how the pollsters have hammered teams that lose, I think there’s a good chance that the other three will fall out of the top-25.

That would leave three open spots … and I’m making a wild-a** guess that the Griz may just fill one of those spots. I know that seems pretty unlikely, but we’ve already seen stranger jumps than that this year. So why not be hopeful?
 
Would be nice but I think we need a couple more wins to get in the top 25. If we can string three quality wins then we should. Maybe with a good game next week that may do the trick.
 
good stuff Idagriz01. I dont know about Sam Houston dropping that far, maybe a couple notches. but like you say its an odd year for pollsters. Richmond seems to be the unknown, not real sure about their ranking.
 
Follow-up on posts so far:
Well, I did say that the Griz moving into the top-25 was a wild-a** guess. That is really more of a hope than an solid expectation. But it is based on several big jumps from nowhere to maybe #18-22 in past polls this year.

Re: Sam Houston dropping 7 spots. You could be right, especially since the loss was to another ranked team (#11 Central Arkansas). But, as I said, the pollsters have been really hammering teams badly after losses, and I’m thinking that trend will continue, at least for this week. I’m actually a bit doubtful about moving Central Arkansas up as far as I did.

At least one bit of weird stuff should go away: Will North Dakota still get some votes? They now sit at 1-4 and have been out-scored 142 to 52 in their last three games.

One of the stranger things I still see is Wofford (4-0), #7 going into the weekend and with a chance to move up to #5, by my reckoning. Their 31-7 win this weekend was at Presbyterian College, which looks like an okay opponent at 2-3 … except that PC’s two wins were over an NAIA opponent and a non-schollie Pioneer League team. Wofford’s other three wins have been by a total of five points … over opponents whose combined records are 4-10. Not exactly a powerhouse performance.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
... One of the stranger things I still see is Wofford (4-0), #7 going into the weekend and with a chance to move up to #5, by my reckoning. Their 31-7 win this weekend was at Presbyterian College, which looks like an okay opponent at 2-3 … except that PC’s two wins were over an NAIA opponent and a non-schollie Pioneer League team. Wofford’s other three wins have been by a total of five points … over opponents whose combined records are 4-10. Not exactly a powerhouse performance.
Hmmm. Thought this would provoke more of a response. I've seen parts of some Wofford games (mostly highlights) and they've looked underwhelming. Anyone out there who's seen more and can speak to how good/bad they really are?
 
MT will stay unranked for at least two more weeks I would guess - assuming they win those games. In reality, to make the play-offs the team is looking at winning out, most likely, or at least beating Weber and dropping 1 more for an outside chance.
 
The BIG IF.....we are 5-2 following HC weekend we are a legit 20-25 ranking. IF....we somehow run the table or lose only one game we got a shot at top 15.
 
AllWeatherFan said:
We all know that the poll has no bearing on playoff selections, right?

Yes to a degree it does and doesn't, but I don't see more than two teams making the playoffs from the Big Sky. A top 25 team would have a better shot.
 
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