IdaGriz01
Well-known member
We tend to focus on losses among the top ten, including South Dakota State losing to an unranked team. However, the real bloodbath happened in the lower half of the list: Of the bottom thirteen teams, nine lost, several of them to unranked opponents. I can't recall when anything that extreme happened before.
Anyway, there’s bound to be some turnover. And it will be difficult to figure how the pollsters will rank a mix of four winning team among #13-25, the losers who stay in, and some “new” ranked teams. But, at least once more, we’ll give it a try.
I figure there will four slots to fill: One of the losers was #19 New Hampshire. Yes, they lost to #3 Towson, but their record is now 1-3 ... so they’re gone from the rankings. Same goes for the three teams who were ranked #22 and below -- when you’re down there, any loss is a killer.
One addition was easy: Youngstown State, with its only loss to FBS Michigan State, seems like it deserved to be in anyway. And I’m betting that its 5-1 record jumps it pretty high.
I’m guessing that Southern Illinois going on the road to upset #7 SDSU gets them into the top-25, although their 3-3 record will probably keep their ranking low. (One loss was to FBS Illinois and another was in OT, so they might go higher.)
In the same way, I’m guessing Samford’s upset of #16 Ga Southern, along with their 4-2 record, will get them in.
James Madison is also 4-2. Their win over Albany (1-5) doesn’t impress, but they received enough points last week to almost get into the top-25, so I’m guessing they will make it this week.
Note that Cal Poly now has a losing record, so it would not surprise me if they dropped out of the poll also. If that happens, seeing Yale as their "replacement" wouldn't be a surprise either.
So here they are:
Poll guess, Team (Record) [Previous Rank], Comment
1 NDSU (5-0) [1]
2 Sam Houston State (4-1) [2]
3 Towson (6-0) [3]
4 Eastern Illinois (4-1) [5]
5 EWU (3-2) [6]
6 Northern Iowa (4-1) [4] Lost to #1
7 Montana State (4-2) [8]
8 Coastal Carolina (5-0) [9]
9 Montana (4-1) [10]
10 McNeese (5-1) [11]
11 Fordham (6-0) [12]
12 SDSU (3-3) [7] Lost to unranked.
13 Wofford (3-2) [17]
14 Youngstown State (5-1) [NR]
15 Lehigh (4-1) [13] Lost to #12.
16 Villanova (3-2) [20]
17 Bethune-Cookman (4-1) [21]
18 Cent Arkansas (2-3) [14] Lost to #11.
19 Northern Arizona (3-2) [15] Lost to #8.
20 Maine (5-1) [23]
21 So Illinois (3-3) [NR]
22 Samford (4-2) [NR]
23 Ga Southern (3-2) [16] Lost to unranked.
24 Cal Poly (2-3) [18] Lost to unranked.
25 James Madison (4-2) [NR]
NR New Hampshire (1-3) [19] Lost to #3.
NR Tenn-Martin (3-2) [22] Lost to unranked.
NR Delaware (4-2) [24] Lost to #23.
NR Gardner-Webb (4-2) [25] Lost to unranked.
Anyway, there’s bound to be some turnover. And it will be difficult to figure how the pollsters will rank a mix of four winning team among #13-25, the losers who stay in, and some “new” ranked teams. But, at least once more, we’ll give it a try.
I figure there will four slots to fill: One of the losers was #19 New Hampshire. Yes, they lost to #3 Towson, but their record is now 1-3 ... so they’re gone from the rankings. Same goes for the three teams who were ranked #22 and below -- when you’re down there, any loss is a killer.
One addition was easy: Youngstown State, with its only loss to FBS Michigan State, seems like it deserved to be in anyway. And I’m betting that its 5-1 record jumps it pretty high.
I’m guessing that Southern Illinois going on the road to upset #7 SDSU gets them into the top-25, although their 3-3 record will probably keep their ranking low. (One loss was to FBS Illinois and another was in OT, so they might go higher.)
In the same way, I’m guessing Samford’s upset of #16 Ga Southern, along with their 4-2 record, will get them in.
James Madison is also 4-2. Their win over Albany (1-5) doesn’t impress, but they received enough points last week to almost get into the top-25, so I’m guessing they will make it this week.
Note that Cal Poly now has a losing record, so it would not surprise me if they dropped out of the poll also. If that happens, seeing Yale as their "replacement" wouldn't be a surprise either.
So here they are:
Poll guess, Team (Record) [Previous Rank], Comment
1 NDSU (5-0) [1]
2 Sam Houston State (4-1) [2]
3 Towson (6-0) [3]
4 Eastern Illinois (4-1) [5]
5 EWU (3-2) [6]
6 Northern Iowa (4-1) [4] Lost to #1
7 Montana State (4-2) [8]
8 Coastal Carolina (5-0) [9]
9 Montana (4-1) [10]
10 McNeese (5-1) [11]
11 Fordham (6-0) [12]
12 SDSU (3-3) [7] Lost to unranked.
13 Wofford (3-2) [17]
14 Youngstown State (5-1) [NR]
15 Lehigh (4-1) [13] Lost to #12.
16 Villanova (3-2) [20]
17 Bethune-Cookman (4-1) [21]
18 Cent Arkansas (2-3) [14] Lost to #11.
19 Northern Arizona (3-2) [15] Lost to #8.
20 Maine (5-1) [23]
21 So Illinois (3-3) [NR]
22 Samford (4-2) [NR]
23 Ga Southern (3-2) [16] Lost to unranked.
24 Cal Poly (2-3) [18] Lost to unranked.
25 James Madison (4-2) [NR]
NR New Hampshire (1-3) [19] Lost to #3.
NR Tenn-Martin (3-2) [22] Lost to unranked.
NR Delaware (4-2) [24] Lost to #23.
NR Gardner-Webb (4-2) [25] Lost to unranked.
to not show the SDSU record as 4-2. On the other hand, my copy of the previous poll shows that TSN had their record as 4-1, when it should have been 3-2 ... SDSU having lost back-to-back games at FBS Nebraska and then to NDSU. I won't change my guess, but it would not surprise me if they dropped even more than I show, since they've now lost three in a row.
